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Pastoral Farming in the Ili Delta, Kazakhstan, under Decreasing Water Inflow: An Economic Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Elisabeth Baranowski

    (Faculty of Law and Economics & Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, 17487 Greifswald, Germany)

  • Niels Thevs

    (World Agroforestry Centre, Central Asia Office, Bishkek 720001, Kyrgyzstan)

  • Altyn Khalil

    (Faculty of Law and Economics & Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, 17487 Greifswald, Germany)

  • Azim Baibagyssov

    (Department of Biodiversity and Bio-resources, Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology, Kazakh National Al-Farabi University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Margulan Iklassov

    (Department of Biodiversity and Bio-resources, Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology, Kazakh National Al-Farabi University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Ruslan Salmurzauli

    (Department of Biodiversity and Bio-resources, Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology, Kazakh National Al-Farabi University, Leading expert of Remote Sensing Center of the Earth at Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Sabir Nurtazin

    (Department of Biodiversity and Bio-resources, Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology, Kazakh National Al-Farabi University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Volker Beckmann

    (Faculty of Law and Economics & Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, 17487 Greifswald, Germany)

Abstract

River deltas provide the most productive pastures in Central Asia. Simultaneously they are highly vulnerable to water inflow changes. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the short- and medium-term effect of reduced water inflow on farmers’ performance within the Ili Delta. Primary data were collected through 35 interviews with farmers and additional experts in 2015. Production parameters for three types of individual farms were estimated and entered into a full cost accounting. Contribution margins were calculated for three scenarios: (I) sufficient water inflow (normal situation), (II) decreasing water inflow, and (III) significantly reduced water inflow (worst case). Farmers purchase hay to adapt to pasture production loss due to decreasing water inflow. This more than doubled the variable costs of worst case in comparison to normal situation for small-, medium-, and large-scale type of individual farm. Monte Carlo simulation indicates a risk of 74% (small-scale farm) and 3% (medium-scale farm) that already variable costs will exceed revenues. Despite their high fixed costs, only large-scale individual farms generate positive net farm income from operations in the worst case due to government payments from participation in elite bull program that account for one-third of total revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisabeth Baranowski & Niels Thevs & Altyn Khalil & Azim Baibagyssov & Margulan Iklassov & Ruslan Salmurzauli & Sabir Nurtazin & Volker Beckmann, 2020. "Pastoral Farming in the Ili Delta, Kazakhstan, under Decreasing Water Inflow: An Economic Assessment," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-29, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:10:y:2020:i:7:p:281-:d:382146
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hankerson, Brett R. & Schierhorn, Florian & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Dong, Changxing & Eisfelder, Christina & Müller, Daniel, 2019. "Modeling the spatial distribution of grazing intensity in Kazakhstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. repec:zbw:iamodp:234476 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robinson, S. & Kerven, C. & Behnke, R. & Kushenov, K. & Milner-Gulland, E.J., 2016. "The changing role of bio-physical and socio-economic drivers in determining livestock distributions: A historical perspective from Kazakhstan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 169-182.
    4. Petrick, Martin & Pomfret, Richard, 2016. "Agricultural policies in Kazakhstan," IAMO Discussion Papers 234476, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    5. Behnke, Roy H., 1985. "Measuring the benefits of subsistence versus commercial livestock production in Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 109-135.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samal Kaliyeva & Francisco Jose Areal & Yiorgos Gadanakis, 2020. "Attitudes of Kazakh Rural Households towards Joining and Creating Cooperatives," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.

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