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What we do and don't know about the term premium

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  • Eric T. Swanson

Abstract

Understanding long-term interest rate fluctuations requires one to understand what the term premium is and how it may change over time. In this Economic Letter, we define the term premium and explain the state of the art in measuring it. We conclude with some discussion of the limitations of our current knowledge.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): jul20 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2007:i:jul20:n:2007-21

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Keywords: Interest rates;

References

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  1. Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Alan Greenspan, 2005. "Federal Reserve Board's semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress: testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, February 17, 2005," Speech 58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Commentary on "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 271-282.
  5. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  2. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Insper Working Papers wpe_230, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  3. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11.
  4. Janet L. Yellen, 2007. "The U.S. economy and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec7.

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