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Output, growth, welfare, and inflation: a survey

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Author Info
Joseph H. Haslag

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Abstract

In this article, Joseph Haslag surveys both the theoretical results and the empirical evidence relating inflation to per capita real GDP growth. Theory yields mixed results: a permanent change in inflation can raise, lower, or have no impact on per capita output or its rate of growth. The crucial factor seems to be the role money plays in the model economy. However, in most cases, a permanent increase in inflation lowers the average person's welfare. The empirical evidence is similarly inconclusive. A body of evidence suggests that high-inflation countries do grow more slowly than low-inflation countries. However, the systematic relationship between inflation and output growth does not survive when researchers include other potential determinants of growth or adopt an alternative definition of trend.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its journal Economic and Financial Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 11-21
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1997:i:qii:p:11-21

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Welfare;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ruth Judson & Athanasios Orphanides, 1996. "Inflation, volatility and growth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2000. "Output and Inflation in the Long Run," Amherst Economic Papers 2000.01, Amherst College, Department of Economics, revised 24 Oct 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joseph H. Haslag, 1995. "Monetary policy, banking, and growth," Working Papers 95-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-80, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Koenig, Evan F, 1987. "The Short-run 'Tobin Effect' in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 43-53, January.
  11. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ireland, Peter N, 1994. "Money and Growth: An Alternative Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 47-65, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Greenwood, Jeremy & Huffman, Gregory W., 1987. "A dynamic equilibrium model of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 203-228, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Marquis, Milton H & Reffett, Kevin L, 1995. "The Inflation Tax in a Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 109-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Working Papers 3702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. repec:fth:simfra:93-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Gomme, P., 1993. "Money and Growth Revisited : Measuring the Costs of Inflation in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Papers dp93-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    Other versions:
  19. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1.
    Other versions:
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1.
  20. Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Stein, Jerome L, 1970. "Monetary Growth Theory in Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-106, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Abel, Andrew B., 1985. "Dynamic behavior of capital accumulation in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-71, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Freeman, Scott & Huffman, Gregory W, 1991. "Inside Money, Output, and Causality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(3), pages 645-67, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1995. "Growth and the effects of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1405-1428, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Fischer, S., 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," Working papers 580, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  29. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christie Smith, 2004. "The long-run effects of monetary policy on output growth," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, September. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul Wachtel & Peter L. Rousseau, 2000. "Inflation, Financial Development and Growth," Working Papers 00-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-10.

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