IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v68y2018i1p71-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is There Seasonality in Traded and Non-Traded Period Returns in the US Equity Market? A Multiple Structural Change Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Joao Dionisio Monteiro

    (Department of Management and Economics, NECE, University of Beira Interior, Covilha, Portugal)

  • Jose Luis Miralles-Quiros

    (Department of Financial Economics, University of Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain)

  • Jose Ramos Pires Manso

    (Department of Management and Economics, NECE, University of Beira Interior, Covilha, Portugal)

Abstract

This paper simultaneously examines day-of-the-week, turn-of-the-month and pre- and post-holidays calendar effects in traded and non-traded daily period returns in a group of broad-index exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track the major US stock indices (S&P 500, DJIA 30, NASDAQ 100 and Russel 2000 index). Bai and Perron (1998, 2003)’s method is employed to examine stability of the significant calendar effects over time and across ETFs. Results exhibit a high instability of the significant calendar effects over the various regimes up until 2001. From 2001 onwards and until the end of 2013, only a single regime across all ETFs is identified. In this last regime, results point to the disappearance of the previous significant effects across the US equity ETFs group. Unstable observed effects could have been motivated by market-specific conditions in such short time periods. The disappearance of these effects from 2001 onwards are consistent with the nature of this asset class: these ETFs are broadly diversified portfolios with diversification of private information, with higher liquidity and lower transactions cost, which is likely to reduce potential calendar effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Dionisio Monteiro & Jose Luis Miralles-Quiros & Jose Ramos Pires Manso, 2018. "Is There Seasonality in Traded and Non-Traded Period Returns in the US Equity Market? A Multiple Structural Change Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(1), pages 71-98, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:1:p:71-98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1403_71-98_monteiro_final_issue_1_2018.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joel Hasbrouck, 2003. "Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2375-2400, December.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Cadsby, Charles Bram & Ratner, Mitchell, 1992. "Turn-of-month and pre-holiday effects on stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 497-509, June.
    4. Lockwood, Larry J & Linn, Scott C, 1990. "An Examination of Stock Market Return Volatility during Overnight and Intraday Periods, 1964-1989," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 591-601, June.
    5. A. Abhyankar & D. Ghosh & E. Levin & R.J. Limmack, 1997. "Bid‐ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Intra‐day Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 343-362, April.
    6. Chang, Eric C. & Michael Pinegar, J. & Ravichandran, R., 1998. "US day-of-the-week effects and asymmetric responses to macroeconomic news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 513-534, May.
    7. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    8. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 187-211, March.
    9. Longstaff, Francis A, 1995. "How Much Can Marketability Affect Security Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1767-1774, December.
    10. McInish, Thomas H & Wood, Robert A, 1992. "An Analysis of Intraday Patterns in Bid/Ask Spreads for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 753-764, June.
    11. Berkman, Henk & Koch, Paul D. & Tuttle, Laura & Zhang, Ying Jenny, 2012. "Paying Attention: Overnight Returns and the Hidden Cost of Buying at the Open," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 715-741, August.
    12. Zainudin Arsad & J. Andrew Coutts, 1997. "Security price anomalies in the London International Stock Exchange: a 60 year perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 455-464.
    13. Bagnoli, Mark & Clement, Michael & Watts, Susan G., 2005. "Around-the-Clock Media Coverage and the Timing of Earnings Announcements," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1184, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    14. Abraham, Abraham & Ikenberry, David L., 1994. "The Individual Investor and the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 263-277, June.
    15. Harris, Lawrence, 1989. "A Day-End Transaction Price Anomaly," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 29-45, March.
    16. Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Seasonal Movements in Security Prices II: Weekend, Holiday, Turn of the Month, and Intraday Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-177, Fall.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    18. George, Thomas J & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 2001. "Information Flow and Pricing Errors: A Unified Approach to Estimation and Testing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 979-1020.
    19. Michael A Kelly & Steven P Clark, 2011. "Returns in trading versus non-trading hours: The difference is day and night," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(2), pages 132-145, June.
    20. Jiang, Christine X. & Likitapiwat, Tanakorn & McInish, Thomas H., 2012. "Information Content of Earnings Announcements: Evidence from After-Hours Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1303-1330, December.
    21. Michael J. Barclay, 2003. "Price Discovery and Trading After Hours," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1041-1073.
    22. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    23. Chong, Ryan & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin & Littler, Kevin, 2005. "Pre-holiday effects: International evidence on the decline and reversal of a stock market anomaly," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1226-1236, December.
    24. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    25. Harrison Hong & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Trading and Returns under Periodic Market Closures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 297-354, February.
    26. Stoll, Hans R & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Stock Market Structure and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 37-71.
    27. Paul Brockman & David Michayluk, 1998. "The persistent holiday effect: additional evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 205-209.
    28. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kusen, Alex & Rudolf, Markus, 2019. "Feedback trading: Strategies during day and night with global interconnectedness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 438-463.
    2. Andrew Worthington, 2010. "The decline of calendar seasonality in the Australian stock exchange, 1958–2005," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 421-433, July.
    3. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    4. Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete F. S. Vieira, 2013. "Another look at the holiday effect," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(20), pages 1623-1633, October.
    5. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in the pre-holiday returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 107-119.
    6. Semenov, Andrei, 2015. "The small-cap effect in the predictability of individual stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 178-197.
    7. Andrew C. Worthington, 2007. "National Exuberance: A Note On The Melbourne Cup Effect In Australian Stock Returns," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 26(2), pages 170-179, June.
    8. Mehmet Hasan Eken & Taylan Ozgür Uner, 2010. "Calendar Effects in the Stock Market and a Practice Relatedn to the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market (ISEM)," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 59-95.
    9. Marcus Schulmerich & Yves-Michel Leporcher & Ching-Hwa Eu, 2015. "Stock Market Anomalies," Management for Professionals, in: Applied Asset and Risk Management, edition 127, chapter 3, pages 175-244, Springer.
    10. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2018. "European trading volumes on cross‐market holidays," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 675-704, October.
    11. Jian, Zhihong & Li, Xupei & Zhu, Zhican, 2020. "Sequential forecasting of downside extreme risk during overnight and daytime: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market☆," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Bogousslavsky, Vincent, 2021. "The cross-section of intraday and overnight returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 172-194.
    13. Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Karaa, Rabaa, 2023. "From dusk till dawn (and vice versa): Overnight-versus-daytime reversals and feedback trading," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Faruk Bostanci & Saim Kilic, 2010. "The Effects of Free Float Ratios on Market Performance: An Empirical Study on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 1-14.
    15. Xiao, Xijuan & Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2020. "Price discovery, order submission, and tick size during preopen period," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Holiday effects during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 41625, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 2012.
    17. A. R. Zafer Sayar & Onder Kaymaz & Ali Alp, 2010. "The Effect of the Transparency Level of the ISE-Listed Banks on Liquidity," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 27-58.
    18. Razvan STEFANESCU & Ramona DUMITRIU, 2018. "Changes in the stocks prices behavior before and after the public holidays: case of Bucharest Stock Exchange," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 189-202.
    19. Patrizia Perras & Niklas Wagner, 2020. "On the pricing of overnight market risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1307-1327, September.
    20. Andrew Coutts & Christos Kaplanidis & Jennifer Roberts, 2000. "Security price anomalies in an emerging market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 561-571.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    night and daytime returns; market efficiency; US equity exchange-traded funds; calendar effects; multiple structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:1:p:71-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.