IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/journl/vxxiy2018ispecial3p357-366.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Role of Governance and Political institutions for Budget Deficit for Low and High Income Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Asma Arif
  • Mujahid Hussain

Abstract

This study has a major motivation to empirically find the fundamentals of budget deficit instability for the period 1984 to 2016 using panel data set of low and high income countries. All the countries included in the study are reported in the international monetary fund (IMF) Government financial statistic (GFS) and World Bank member countries.This study has tried to empirically evaluate the economic and political sources of budget deficit volatility. This study has tried to empirically evaluate the economic and political sources of budget deficit volatility. This study first estimate the regression model by considering the panel characteristics of the data set and estimate the fixed effects and random effects models. Finally Hausman test is used to make a decision for the best fit model. According to present study institutional variables are very important determinants of budget deficit, both in the regions of low and high income countries. The outcome indicates that the budget is more stable with the higher level of political stability. The Budget deficit has more fluctuations if higher level of corruption coexists. This study contributes to the literature for institutional setup and budget deficit and reached to the conclusion that to avoid high and unstable deficit attention should be diverted to improve institutional setup of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Asma Arif & Mujahid Hussain, 2018. "The Role of Governance and Political institutions for Budget Deficit for Low and High Income Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 357-366.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxi:y:2018:i:special3:p:357-366
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ersj.eu/journal/1387/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maltritz, Dominik & Wüste, Sebastian, 2015. "Determinants of budget deficits in Europe: The role and relations of fiscal rules, fiscal councils, creative accounting and the Euro," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 222-236.
    2. Azzimonti, Marina & Battaglini, Marco & Coate, Stephen, 2016. "The costs and benefits of balanced budget rules: Lessons from a political economy model of fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 45-61.
    3. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2008. "A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation, and Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 201-236, March.
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    5. de Haan, Jakob & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 1994. "Political and Institutional Determinants of Fiscal Policy in the European Community," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 80(1-2), pages 157-172, July.
    6. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 101-117, January.
    7. Grüner, Hans Peter, 2017. "Mechanisms for the control of fiscal deficits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 133-152.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
    9. Chen, Chuanglian & Yao, Shujie & Hu, Peiwei & Lin, Yuting, 2017. "Optimal government investment and public debt in an economic growth model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 257-278.
    10. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "Impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial shock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, December.
    12. Buiter, Willem H. & Sibert, Anne C., 2016. "Government deficits in large open economies: The problem of too little public debt," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-39.
    13. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    14. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "The impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial shock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-44.
    15. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "The size and scope of government:: Comparative politics with rational politicians," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 699-735, April.
    16. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Li, Pei, 2015. "Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-196.
    17. Witold Jerzy Henisz, 2004. "Political Institutions and Policy Volatility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, March.
    18. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    19. Alessandro Lizzeri, 1999. "Budget Deficits and Redistributive Politics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(4), pages 909-928.
    20. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the (de)stabilising role of government size," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 781-790.
    21. Woo, Jaejoon, 2003. "Economic, political, and institutional determinants of public deficits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3-4), pages 387-426, March.
    22. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    23. Gersbach, Hans & Grimm, Oliver & Becker, Johannes Gerd, 2010. "Debt-sensitive Majority Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 7860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
    25. Edin, Per-Anders & Ohlsson, Henry, 1991. "Political determinants of budget deficits: Coalition effects versus minority effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1597-1603, December.
    26. Torsten Persson, 2002. "Do Political Institutions Shape Economic Policy?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 883-905, May.
    27. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
    28. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.
    29. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "Impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial stock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Working Paper Series 02, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business and Law.
    30. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1989. "Government Spending and Budget Deficits in the Industrial Economies," NBER Working Papers 2919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Political, Institutional, and Economic Factors Underlying Deficit Volatility," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 719-732, September.
    32. Andrikopoulos, Andreas & Loizides, Ioannis & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 2004. "Fiscal policy and political business cycles in the EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 125-152, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anna Spoz & Grzegorz Kotlinski & Anna Mizak & Helena Zukowska, 2020. "Public Aid for Relieving the Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 606-621.
    2. Asma Arif & Umaima Arif, 2023. "Institutional Approach to the Budget Deficit: An Empirical Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ers:journl:v:vi:y:2018:i:3:p:98-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Asma Arif & Mujahid Hussain, 2018. "Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits Volatility: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 98-114.
    3. Attiya Y. Javid & Umaima Arif & Asma Arif, 2011. "Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits Volatility in Selected Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 649-662.
    4. Garnov & A. & Zvyagin & L. & Sviridova & O., 2019. "System Data Analysis: Innovative Technologies, Methods and Techniques," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(Special 1), pages 26-39.
    5. Alesina, A. & Passalacqua, A., 2016. "The Political Economy of Government Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2599-2651, Elsevier.
    6. Marcela Eslava, 2011. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 645-673, September.
    7. Asma Arif & Umaima Arif, 2023. "Institutional Approach to the Budget Deficit: An Empirical Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.
    8. Woo, Jaejoon, 2003. "Economic, political, and institutional determinants of public deficits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3-4), pages 387-426, March.
    9. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.
    10. Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Economic and Political Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union: A Dynamic Random Coefficient Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2546, CESifo.
    11. Chiara Dalle Nogare, 2000. "I governi di coalizione sono tutti "fiscally irresponsible"? Un'indagine empirica con l'utilizzo della cluster analysis," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 93-130.
    12. Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 2611, CESifo.
    13. Lars P. Feld & Gebhard Kirchgassner, 1999. "Public Debt and Budgetary Procedures: Top Down or Bottom Up? Some Evidence from Swiss Municipalities," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 151-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ali BAYAR & Bram SMEETS, 2009. "Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union," EcoMod2009 21500010, EcoMod.
    15. Oliver Pamp, 2004. "Partisan Preferences and Political Institutions: Explaining Fiscal Retrenchment in the European Union," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp24, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 15 Oct 2004.
    16. Ali BAYAR & Bram SMEETS, 2009. "Economic and Political Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union: A Dynamic Random Coefficient Approach," EcoMod2009 21500009, EcoMod.
    17. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2000. "Political Bias in Fiscal Policy Formation: an Econometric Analysis of Coalition Systems," Working Papers 28, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2000.
    18. Salih BARIŞIK & Abdullah BARIS, 2017. "Impact of governance on budget deficit in developing countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 111-130, Summer.
    19. Maria Manuel Pinho, 2004. "Political models of budget deficits: a literature review," FEP Working Papers 138, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    20. Alfredo Monte & Luca Pennacchio, 2020. "Corruption, Government Expenditure and Public Debt in OECD Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 739-771, December.
    21. Oliver Pamp, 2008. "Partisan Preferences and Political Institutions: Explaining Fiscal Retrenchment in the European Union," European Political Economy Review, European Political Economy Infrastructure Consortium, vol. 8(Spring), pages 4-39.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pubic Policy; Macroeconomic stability; Fiscal deficit; Panel data; South Asia & Asean;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxi:y:2018:i:special3:p:357-366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marios Agiomavritis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ersj.eu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.