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Sequential investment and delay: an agribusiness firm case study

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  • Sameh Hachicha
  • Leila Kaaniche
  • Fathi Abid
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    Abstract

    Purpose – Investment decisions by agribusiness firms are costly and subject to high volatility and uncertainty. In many cases, the project value is not only determined by its cash-flows stream and financial side effects but also by the presence of substantial future uncertainty such as project implementation delay and growth opportunities. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate an agribusiness project taking into account these two options and to illustrate the how risks that evolve over time can affect sequential investment decisions in the oleic oil industry in Tunisia. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology used to capture the investment project value and analyze the impact of lags between the initial investment decision and its implementation on project value is based on a decision tree method and binomial lattice method (which adds growth option). The project valuation is based, first on actual data at the time of the initial decision and second the authors use the full information to report on the true value of the investment opportunity as real time evolved. Findings – Findings show that time to build is a very important factor in valuing an agribusiness especially when efficiency is strongly governed by climatic conditions and international market uncertainty. Our real options approach shows that production delays can deteriorate the follow-on project value by as much as 53 percent. The implicit growth option falls to only 27 percent of the total project value while it was about 58 percent according to the standard forecast. The delay in project implementation not only affects the firm project financing costs and the loss of revenue, but also it contributes to modify the initial marketing strategy. Originality/value – The paper is a first application of real option approach to the oleic oil industry. The methodology used in the paper can be adapted by practitioners and investors to adequately value oleic projects.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Agricultural Finance Review.

    Volume (Year): 71 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 (July)
    Pages: 240-258

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    Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:71:y:2011:i:2:p:240-258

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    Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com

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    Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
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    Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/afr.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Agribusiness; Growth option; Investment; Oleic industry; Project management; Time-to-build;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Balmann, Alfons & Musshoff, Oliver, 2002. "Is The "Standard Real Options Approach" Appropriate For Investment Decisions In Hog Production?," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19897, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2000. "The Facts About Time: To-Build," IMF Working Papers 00/138, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Schmit, Todd M. & Luo, Jianchuan & Tauer, Loren W., 2008. "Ethanol Plant Investment using Net Present Value and Real Options Analyses," Working Papers 51145, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    4. Isik, Murat & Coble, Keith H. & Hudson, Darren & House, Lisa, 2002. "A Model Of Entry-Exit Decisions And Capacity Choice Under Demand Uncertainty," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19797, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Analysis of Automatic Milking Systems," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), October.
    6. Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1985. "Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions," NBER Working Papers 1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    8. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    9. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Approach To Investment Analysis Of Automatic Milking Systems," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22216, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Pacheco-de-Almeida, Goncalo & Zemsky, Peter, 2003. " The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(1), pages 166-82, Spring.
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