IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eff/ekoeco/v18y2011i2p487-526.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Politika deviznog kursa i stopa rasta u zemljama jugoisto?ne Evrope (na primerima Srbije i Hrvatske)

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Milenkovi?

    (docent Ekonomskog fakulteta Univerziteta u Prištini sa privremenim sedištem u Kosovskoj Mitrovici, i Ekonomskog fakulteta u Subotici Univerziteta u Novom Sadu, Srbija)

  • Milenko Popovi?

    (, redovni profesor Montenegro Business School Univerziteta Mediteran, Podgorica, Crna Gora)

Abstract

Politika deviznog kursa jedna je od parcijalnih ekonomskih politika unutar jedinstvene makroekonomske politike koja, usled ?injenice da nivo deviznog kursa nacionalne valute uti?e na niz najzna?ajnijih makroekonomskih agregata, predstavlja jednu od najosetljivijih parcijalnih politika. Pošto nije i ne može biti jedna od kona?nih, ve? je uvek jedna od intermedijarnih politika, politika deviznog kursa se prilago?ava „starijim“ parcijalnim politikama unutar jedinstvene makroekonomske politike, i to: platnobilansnoj politici, monetarno-fiskalnoj politici, politici privla?enja stranog kapitala, politici nacionalne konkurentnosti, stabilizacionoj politici, itd, a naro?ito politici privrednog razvoja, kao najvažnijoj parcijalnoj politici unutar jedinstvene makroekonomske politike, usled ?injenice da je privredni rast uvek najvažniji kona?ni makroekonomski cilj na dugi rok. U radu se razmatra politika deviznog kursa u Srbiji i Hrvatskoj, kao predstavnicama zemalja jugoisto?ne Evrope, ali ne sama za sebe – izolovano – ve? njen me?uodnos sa politikom privrednog razvoja. Time je napravljen pokušaj da se politika deviznog kursa ne analizira izolovano, ve? u uzro?no-posledi?noj vezi sa važnijim parcijalnim makroekonomskim politikama koje presudno uti?u i na izabrani režim deviznog kursa i na izabranu politiku deviznog kursa u širem zna?enju. Rad se sastoji iz dva dela. U prvom delu se, nakon opšteg osvrta na ciljeve politike deviznog kursa, analizira politika deviznog kursa posebno za Srbiju i Hrvatsku u poslednjih pet godina. U drugom delu se u analizu uklju?uje i politika privrednog razvoja, ta?nije izabrani model privrednog rasta, kao osnovno-opredeljuju?a determinanta izbora režima deviznog kursa i politike deviznog kursa. U?injen je napor da se to objasni kroz vezu izme?u privrednog rasta i realnog deviznog kursa polaze?i od jednostavnog modela rasta sa optimalnim deviznim kusem. Potom je u?injen i napor da se da ocena dosadašnjeg iskustva Srbije i Hrvatske polaze?i od ovakvog modela. Ova istraživanja predstavljaju samo po?etni korak u širem, sveobuhvatnijem, sagledavanju prakti?ne politike deviznog kursa, što bi moglo biti u?injeno kvantitativnom analizom uticaja referentne kamatne stope centralne banke, emisije i povla?enja instrumenata javnog duga, priliva i odliva stranih direktnih i portfolio investicija, i naravno intervencija centralne banke na deviznom tržištu, i uticaja svih pomenutih elemenata na visinu deviznog kursa, što predstavlja izazov za budu?a istraživanja.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Milenkovi? & Milenko Popovi?, 2011. "Politika deviznog kursa i stopa rasta u zemljama jugoisto?ne Evrope (na primerima Srbije i Hrvatske)," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 487-526.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:487-526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rifin.com/images/stories/2011/10/ekonomija_economics_godina_18_broj_2_za_tisak.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Obstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3-4), pages 353-374, July.
    3. Jasmina Halebi?, 2011. "Utjecaj južnih multinacionalnih korporacija na gospodarstvo Bosne i Hercegovine," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 467-486.
    4. Nathan Nunn, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 569-600.
    5. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. Pierre‐Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2008. "Institutional Quality And Trade: Which Institutions? Which Trade?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 227-240, April.
    8. Dragoljub Stojanov, 2004. "Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina - a success and a failure of transition," IWE Working Papers 149, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    9. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    11. Susana Borrás & Dimitrios Tsagdis, 2008. "Cluster Policies in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4134.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    13. Paulo Gala, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Levels And Economic Development: Theoretical Analysis And Empirical Evidence," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 037, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    15. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1, May.
    16. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2012. "Casino Capitalism: How the Financial Crisis Came About and What Needs to be Done Now," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199659883, Decembrie.
    17. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Chapters, in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870, pages 1-23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Krueger, Anne O, 1998. "Why Trade Liberalisation Is Good for Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1513-1522, September.
    19. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sola, Sergio, 2011. "Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal: an approach based on U.S. real-time data," Working Paper Series 1361, European Central Bank.
    20. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    22. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Damir Novotny, 2011. "Promjena paradigme u vo?enju ekonomske politike i strukturne promjene kao temeljne pretpostavke održivog rasta hrvatskog gospodarstva," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 313-328.
    2. Dragan Tomaševi?, 2011. "Reindustrijalizacija Hrvatske - koji su preduvjeti zaokreta od potrošnog prema proizvodnom gospodarstvu, a da je zaokret i izvediv?," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 365-376.
    3. Marinko Škare & Saša Stjepanovi?, 2011. "Makroekonomski model Republike Hrvatske ( SSEM1) i mogu?i pravci izlaska iz krize," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 343-364.
    4. Marijana Ivanov & Guste Santini, 2011. "Uloga dopunskog kredita u poticanju poduzetni?ke aktivnosti i ekonomskog razvoja," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 233-270.
    5. Dušan Zbašnik, 2011. "Napuštanje za?aranog kruga," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 527-535.
    6. Dragoljub Stojanov, 2011. "Mr. Keynes, Mr. Roosevelt i Vlada RH Zašto RH teško (ne)može promjeniti razvojnu paradigmu," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 329-342.
    7. Sofija Adži?, 2011. "Povratak industrije u Srbiju - izme?u želja, mogu?nosti i iluzija," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 403-466.
    8. Mirko Mati?, 2011. "Polazne odrednice gospodarskog razvoja," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 271-278.
    9. Neven Vidakovic & Iva Mesi?, 2011. "Radna snaga i perspektive ekonomskoga oporavka u Republici Hrvatskoj," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 279-312.
    10. Tihomir Domazet, 2011. "Okvir ekonomike na makro i mikro razini - odgovor na nove izazove," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 197-232.
    11. Jasmina Halebi?, 2011. "Utjecaj južnih multinacionalnih korporacija na gospodarstvo Bosne i Hercegovine," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 467-486.
    12. Mashkoor, Asim & Ahmed, Ovais & Herani, Dr. Gobin, 2015. "The relationship between Foreign Currency trading and Economic Development: A case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 64482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega & Mr. Thomson Fontaine, 2006. "Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Niger," IMF Working Papers 2006/208, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    15. Milenko Popovic, 2006. "Capital Augmenting And Labor Augmenting Approach In Measuring Contribution Of Human Capital And Education To Economic Growth," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 2(4), pages 71-108.
    16. Alan M. Taylor, 1995. "Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region: On the Role of Openness, Trade and Migration," NBER Working Papers 5276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Yip, Eric, 1999. "Qu’est-il advenu de la croissance de la productivité?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 75(4), pages 559-596, décembre.
    18. Ark, Bart van, 1999. "Accumulation, productivity and technology: measurement and analysis of long term economic growth," CCSO Working Papers 199908, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    19. Kumar, Sanjesh & Singh, Baljeet, 2019. "Barriers to the international diffusion of technological innovations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 74-86.
    20. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung - welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert des Wachstum?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 144, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    devizni kurs; privredni rast; Srbija; Hrvatska;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:487-526. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Neven Vidakovic (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.rifin.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.