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Models of Business Cycles: A Review Essay

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Author Info
Francis W. Ahking
Stephen M. Miller

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Abstract

This paper examines empirically two facets of labor force participation dynamics that imply quite different interpretations of labor market fluctuations. The first, which underlies equilibrium business cycle models, is that workers time their participation to coincide with periods of high real wages. The second, which implies the existence of involuntary unemployment during cyclical downturns, is that workers' current labor force status is heavily influenced by their work experience in the recent past. The authors' results suggest that these persistence effects are a key feature of labor force behavior, particularly for teenagers, adult women, and older men. In contrast, very little evidence could be found to support the intertemporal substitution hypothesis.

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File URL: http://college.holycross.edu/eej/Volume14/V14N2P197_202.pdf
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Article provided by Eastern Economic Association in its journal Eastern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 14 (1988)
Issue (Month): 2 (Apr-Jun)
Pages: 197-202
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Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:14:y:1988:i:2:p:197-202

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Postal: Dr. Mary H. Lesser, Department of Economics, Iona College, New Rochelle, NY 10801-1890
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  1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sweeney, Richard J, 1987. "Some Macro Implications of Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 222-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1983. "Rational expectations and monetary models of exchange rate determination : An empirical examination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-260. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Keynes, Lucas, and Scientific Progress," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 130-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. John F. Muth, 1985. "Properties of Some Short-run Business Forecasts," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 200-210, Jul-Sep. [Downloadable!]
  9. McCall, John J, 1970. "Economics of Information and Job Search," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 113-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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