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Transport appraisal and Monte Carlo simulation by use of the CBA-DK model

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  • Salling, Kim Bang
  • Leleur, Steen
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    Abstract

    This paper presents the Danish CBA-DK software model for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation following the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) methodology in a Danish manual from the Ministry of Transport and on a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. Special emphasis has been placed on the separation between inherent randomness in the modeling system and lack of knowledge. These two concepts have been defined in terms of variability (ontological uncertainty) and uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty). After a short introduction to deterministic calculation resulting in some evaluation criteria a more comprehensive evaluation of the stochastic calculation is made. Especially, the risk analysis part of CBA-DK, with considerations about which probability distributions should be used, is explained. Furthermore, comprehensive assessments based on the set of distributions are made and implemented by use of a Danish case example. Finally, conclusions and a perspective are presented.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 236-245

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:236-245

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    Related research

    Keywords: Transport appraisal Risk analysis Decision support model Monte Carlo simulation Optimism bias Separation of uncertainty;

    References

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    1. Bruzelius, Nils & Flyvbjerg, Bent & Rothengatter, Werner, 2002. "Big decisions, big risks. Improving accountability in mega projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 143-154, April.
    2. Short, Jack & Kopp, Andreas, 2005. "Transport infrastructure: Investment and planning. Policy and research aspects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 360-367, July.
    3. Rodier, Caroline J. & Johnston, Robert A., 2002. "Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 613-631, August.
    4. Mackie, Peter & Preston, John, 1998. "Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, January.
    5. Salling, Kim Bang & Banister, David, 2009. "Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(9-10), pages 800-813, November.
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