Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal
AbstractTwenty-one sources of error and bias in the appraisal of transport projects are identified. These relate to objectives, definitions, data, models and evaluation conventions. Objectives may be unclear, incompletely specified or inconsistent with appraisal criteria. Definitions of study areas and scheme options for testing may bias the outcome. There are multifarious sources of data and model error. Double counting, inappropriate values, and failure to balance quantified and non-quantified items can all affect the evaluation. We suggest that there is a systematic tendency to a mega-error--that of appraisal optimism. Three antidotes to this condition are briefly suggested.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.
Volume (Year): 5 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mohring, Herbert, 1993. "Maximizing, measuring, and not double counting transportation-improvement benefits: A primer on closed- and open-economy cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 413-424, December.
- Westin, Richard B., 1974. "Predictions from binary choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, May.
- Szymanski, Stefan, 1995. "Rational pricing strategies in the cross channel market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 169-177, July.
- Sugden, Robert, 1972. "Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Withdrawal of Railway Services," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 23-32, May.
- Flyvbjerg, Bent & Holm, Mette Skamris & Buhl, SÃ¸ren, 2006. "Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt98r01936, University of California Transportation Center.
- Salling, Kim Bang & Leleur, Steen, 2011. "Transport appraisal and Monte Carlo simulation by use of the CBA-DK model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 236-245, January.
- Tal, Gil & Cohen-Blankshtain, Galit, 2011. "Understanding the role of the forecast-maker in overestimation forecasts of policy impacts: The case of Travel Demand Management policies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 389-400, June.
- Mouter, Niek & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2013. "Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 241-255.
- Salling, Kim Bang & Banister, David, 2009. "Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(9-10), pages 800-813, November.
- Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson , Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström , Peter, 2013. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:32, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
- Short, Jack & Kopp, Andreas, 2005. "Transport infrastructure: Investment and planning. Policy and research aspects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 360-367, July.
- Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bent Flybjerg & Eric J. E. Molin & Bert van Wee, 2013. "Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness," Papers 1307.2176, arXiv.org.
- Beukers, Els & Bertolini, Luca & Te Brömmelstroet, Marco, 2014. "Using cost benefit analysis as a learning process: identifying interventions for improving communication and trust," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 61-72.
- Brinkman, P. Anthony, 2003. "The Ethical Challenges and Professional Responses of Travel Demand Forecasters," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7vb2d17h, University of California Transportation Center.
- van Exel, Job & Rienstra, Sytze & Gommers, Michael & Pearman, Alan & Tsamboulas, Dimitrios, 2002. "EU involvement in TEN development: network effects and European value added," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 299-311, October.
- Sciara, Gian-Claudia, 2012. "Financing congressional earmarks: Implications for transport policy and planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1328-1342.
- Takama, Takeshi & Preston, John, 2008. "Forecasting the effects of road user charge by stochastic agent-based modelling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 738-749, May.
- Phang, Sock-Yong, 2003. "Strategic development of airport and rail infrastructure: the case of Singapore," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 27-33, January.
- Brinkman, Anthony P., 2003. "The Ethical Challenges and Professional Responses of Travel Demand Forecasters," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt9c3330tt, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
- Olsson, Nils O.E. & Krane, Hans Petter & Rolstadås, Asbjørn & Veiseth, Mads, 2010. "Influence of reference points in ex post evaluations of rail infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 251-258, August.
- Eliasson, Jonas & Börjesson, Maria, 2013. "On timetable assumptions in railway investment appraisal," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:31, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
- Malayath, Manoj & Verma, Ashish, 2013. "Activity based travel demand models as a tool for evaluating sustainable transportation policies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 45-66.
- Thomopoulos, N. & Grant-Muller, S. & Tight, M.R., 2009. "Incorporating equity considerations in transport infrastructure evaluation: Current practice and a proposed methodology," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 351-359, November.
- David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
- Brinkman, P. Anthony, 2003. "The Ethical Challenges and Professional Responses of Travel Demand Forecasters," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6dv0z95g, University of California Transportation Center.
- Tsamboulas, Dimitrios A., 2007. "A tool for prioritizing multinational transport infrastructure investments," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-26, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.