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Influencing factors on train punctuality--results from some Norwegian studies

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  • Olsson, Nils O.E.
  • Haugland, Hans

Abstract

This paper discusses the concept of train punctuality, influencing factors and some strategies for improving punctuality. The purpose of the paper is to give an overview of important elements to consider in the preparation of train punctuality improvements, supported by empirical results from studies in Norway. A high capacity utilisation is widely assumed to reduce punctuality. However, the studies from the Oslo area show that capacity utilisation alone cannot explain all variations in punctuality during the day. We particularly point to the number of passengers in the trains as an additional explanation factor. Our own and previous research seems to imply that the key success factor for punctuality on local and regional trains in congested areas is the management of boarding and alighting passengers. On single track lines, such as long distance lines and regional lines in not congested areas, the key success factor seems to lie in the management of train crossings. The paper also discusses precision versus slack strategies as means of improving punctuality. Future research on influencing factors for train punctuality aimed at developing a model for punctuality prediction is proposed.

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  • Olsson, Nils O.E. & Haugland, Hans, 2004. "Influencing factors on train punctuality--results from some Norwegian studies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 387-397, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:11:y:2004:i:4:p:387-397
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    2. Sobrie, Léon & Verschelde, Marijn & Hennebel, Veerle & Roets, Bart, 2023. "Capturing complexity over space and time via deep learning: An application to real-time delay prediction in railways," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1201-1217.
    3. Krier, Betty & Liu, Chia-Mei & McNamara, Brian & Sharpe, Jerrod, 2014. "Individual freight effects, capacity utilization, and Amtrak service quality," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 163-175.
    4. Jaime Larumbe, 2021. "Evaluating Sustainability of Mass Rapid Transit Stations in Dubai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Agbelie, Bismark & Libnao, Kathleen, 2018. "Unobserved heterogeneity analysis of rail transit incident delays," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 39-43.
    6. Nan Cao & Tao Tang & Chunhai Gao, 2020. "A Study of Hindrance-Caused Unscheduled Waiting Time in Railway Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Andreas Økland & Nils O. E. Olsson, 2021. "Punctuality development and delay explanation factors on Norwegian railways in the period 2005–2014," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 127-161, March.
    8. Mohammad-Reza Namazi-Rad & Michelle Dunbar & Hadi Ghaderi & Payam Mokhtarian, 2015. "Constrained Optimization of Average Arrival Time via a Probabilistic Approach to Transport Reliability," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    9. Salicrú, M. & Fleurent, C. & Armengol, J.M., 2011. "Timetable-based operation in urban transport: Run-time optimisation and improvements in the operating process," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 721-740, October.

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