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Ex ante heuristic measures of schedule reliability

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  • Carey, Malachy
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    Abstract

    Measures of reliability and punctuality of scheduled public transport services are important in planning, management, operating and marketing of these services. Various methods can be used to measure reliability. Analytic methods are usually practical for only very simple structured systems. Simulation methods are very time consuming and require data which may not be available. As a result, the most widely used measures are ad hoc or heuristic. However, the assumptions and properties of these measures, and the relationships between them, are seldom discussed, hence we discuss them here. We consider existing measures, extensions of these, and new measures. For specificity, we use the example of train arrivals and departures at a train station: stations with several hundred trains per day and multiple platforms are common in many countries, for example throughout Europe. Some measures of reliability are based on the observed delays, hence can be used only after the event. However, we here focus on measures which can be used in advance, for example for estimating the reliability of proposed schedules or changes in schedules at the design stage. In this we distinguish between measures which require some information about probabilities of delay and those which do not. We also distinguish between exogenous delays, which are beyond the influence of the scheduler (delays due to problems in engineering or operations), and knock-on delays which are affected by schedule design: both types are of interest for schedule reliability, but the latter are of more interest for measuring schedule robustness.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.

    Volume (Year): 33 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 7 (September)
    Pages: 473-494

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:33:y:1999:i:7:p:473-494

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Hallowell, Susan F. & Harker, Patrick T., 1998. "Predicting on-time performance in scheduled railroad operations: methodology and application to train scheduling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 279-295, May.
    2. Carey, Malachy & Kwiecinski, Andrzej, 1995. "Properties of expected costs and performance measures in stochastic models of scheduled transport," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 182-199, May.
    3. Allen, W. Bruce & Mahmoud, Mohamed M. & McNeil, Douglas, 1985. "The importance of time in transit and reliability of transit time for shippers, receivers, and carriers," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 447-456, October.
    4. Carey, Malachy, 1994. "Reliability of interconnected scheduled services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 51-72, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Vromans, Michiel J.C.M. & Dekker, Rommert & Kroon, Leo G., 2006. "Reliability and heterogeneity of railway services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 647-665, July.
    2. Huisman, D. & Kroon, L.G. & Lentink, R.M. & Vromans, M.J.C.M., 2005. "Operations Research in Passenger Railway Transportation," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-023-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    3. Kroon, Leo & Maróti, Gábor & Helmrich, Mathijn Retel & Vromans, Michiel & Dekker, Rommert, 2008. "Stochastic improvement of cyclic railway timetables," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 553-570, July.
    4. Wang, Shuaian & Meng, Qiang, 2012. "Liner ship route schedule design with sea contingency time and port time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 615-633.
    5. Zhi-Chun Li & William Lam & S. Wong, 2009. "The Optimal Transit Fare Structure under Different Market Regimes with Uncertainty in the Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 191-216, June.

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