IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v152y2021icp1-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Calculating conditional passenger travel time distributions in mixed schedule- and frequency-based public transport networks using Markov chains

Author

Listed:
  • Gardner, Clara Brimnes
  • Nielsen, Sara Dorthea
  • Eltved, Morten
  • Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær
  • Nielsen, Otto Anker
  • Nielsen, Bo Friis

Abstract

Calculation of passenger travel time distributions in public transport networks is important for the evaluation of the level of service provided to passengers. Passenger travel times are deterministic for punctual and uncongested networks, but in reality usually have random fluctuations caused by vehicle delays and other incidents. Advanced methods are therefore needed to calculate the passenger travel time distribution between a given origin and destination. This paper presents a novel approach for calculating the travel time distribution from origin to destination based on vehicle delays and possible missed connections in a mixed schedule- and frequency-based public transport network. Markov chains are used to model the network, making the travel time from the origin to the destination phase-type distributed. The approach is flexible with regard to the specification of vehicle travel times and provides the distribution of passenger travel times without any need for simulation. Additionally, it facilitates detailed analyses of passenger travel times conditional on the usage of specific line segments or stops. The merits of this approach are demonstrated using a case study from Copenhagen.

Suggested Citation

  • Gardner, Clara Brimnes & Nielsen, Sara Dorthea & Eltved, Morten & Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Nielsen, Bo Friis, 2021. "Calculating conditional passenger travel time distributions in mixed schedule- and frequency-based public transport networks using Markov chains," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:152:y:2021:i:c:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2021.06.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261521001314
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2021.06.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    2. Hamdouch, Younes & Szeto, W.Y. & Jiang, Y., 2014. "A new schedule-based transit assignment model with travel strategies and supply uncertainties," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 35-67.
    3. Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk & Bell, Michael G.H. & Kurauchi, Fumitaka, 2008. "A quasi-dynamic capacity constrained frequency-based transit assignment model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 925-945, December.
    4. Spiess, Heinz & Florian, Michael, 1989. "Optimal strategies: A new assignment model for transit networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 83-102, April.
    5. Yongqiu Zhu & Rob M. P. Goverde, 2019. "Dynamic Passenger Assignment for Major Railway Disruptions Considering Information Interventions," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1249-1279, December.
    6. Candace Brakewood & Kari Watkins, 2019. "A literature review of the passenger benefits of real-time transit information," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 327-356, May.
    7. Paulsen, Mads & Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2021. "Impacts of real-time information levels in public transport: A large-scale case study using an adaptive passenger path choice model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 155-182.
    8. Nguyen, S. & Pallottino, S., 1988. "Equilibrium traffic assignment for large scale transit networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 176-186, November.
    9. Oded Cats & Erik Jenelius, 2014. "Dynamic Vulnerability Analysis of Public Transport Networks: Mitigation Effects of Real-Time Information," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 435-463, December.
    10. Morten Eltved & Otto Anker Nielsen & Thomas Kjær Rasmussen, 2019. "An assignment model for public transport networks with both schedule- and frequency-based services," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(5), pages 769-793, December.
    11. Tarun Rambha & Stephen D. Boyles & S. Travis Waller, 2016. "Adaptive Transit Routing in Stochastic Time-Dependent Networks," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 1043-1059, August.
    12. Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2000. "A stochastic transit assignment model considering differences in passengers utility functions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 377-402, June.
    13. Parbo, Jens & Nielsen, Otto A. & Prato, Carlo G., 2018. "Reducing passengers’ travel time by optimising stopping patterns in a large-scale network: A case-study in the Copenhagen Region," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 197-212.
    14. Khani, Alireza, 2019. "An online shortest path algorithm for reliable routing in schedule-based transit networks considering transfer failure probability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 549-564.
    15. Fosgerau, Mogens & Frejinger, Emma & Karlstrom, Anders, 2013. "A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 70-80.
    16. Agostino Nuzzolo & Francesco Russo & Umberto Crisalli, 2001. "A Doubly Dynamic Schedule-based Assignment Model for Transit Networks," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 268-285, August.
    17. Meester, Ludolf E. & Muns, Sander, 2007. "Stochastic delay propagation in railway networks and phase-type distributions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 218-230, February.
    18. Bladt, Mogens, 2005. "A Review on Phase-type Distributions and their Use in Risk Theory," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 145-161, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khani, Alireza, 2019. "An online shortest path algorithm for reliable routing in schedule-based transit networks considering transfer failure probability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 549-564.
    2. Jiang, Y. & Szeto, W.Y., 2016. "Reliability-based stochastic transit assignment: Formulations and capacity paradox," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 181-206.
    3. Paulsen, Mads & Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2021. "Impacts of real-time information levels in public transport: A large-scale case study using an adaptive passenger path choice model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 155-182.
    4. Xu, Zhandong & Xie, Jun & Liu, Xiaobo & Nie, Yu (Marco), 2020. "Hyperpath-based algorithms for the transit equilibrium assignment problem," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Du, Muqing & Chen, Anthony, 2022. "Sensitivity analysis for transit equilibrium assignment and applications to uncertainty analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 175-202.
    6. Pramesh Kumar & Alireza Khani, 2021. "Adaptive Park-and-ride Choice on Time-dependent Stochastic Multimodal Transportation Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 771-800, December.
    7. Cats, Oded & West, Jens & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "A dynamic stochastic model for evaluating congestion and crowding effects in transit systems," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-57.
    8. Liu, Jiangtao & Zhou, Xuesong, 2016. "Capacitated transit service network design with boundedly rational agents," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 225-250.
    9. Alireza Khani & Mark Hickman & Hyunsoo Noh, 2015. "Trip-Based Path Algorithms Using the Transit Network Hierarchy," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 635-653, September.
    10. Ding Luo & Oded Cats & Hans Lint, 2020. "Can passenger flow distribution be estimated solely based on network properties in public transport systems?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 2757-2776, December.
    11. Nair, Rahul & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2014. "Equilibrium network design of shared-vehicle systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 47-61.
    12. Shang, Pan & Li, Ruimin & Guo, Jifu & Xian, Kai & Zhou, Xuesong, 2019. "Integrating Lagrangian and Eulerian observations for passenger flow state estimation in an urban rail transit network: A space-time-state hyper network-based assignment approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 135-167.
    13. Oded Cats & Zafeira Gkioulou, 2017. "Modeling the impacts of public transport reliability and travel information on passengers’ waiting-time uncertainty," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(3), pages 247-270, September.
    14. Mohammad Nurul Hassan & Taha Hossein Rashidi & Neema Nassir, 2021. "Consideration of different travel strategies and choice set sizes in transit path choice modelling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 723-746, April.
    15. Cortés, Cristián E. & Jara-Moroni, Pedro & Moreno, Eduardo & Pineda, Cristobal, 2013. "Stochastic transit equilibrium," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 29-44.
    16. Cats, Oded & Koutsopoulos, Haris N. & Burghout, Wilco & Toledo, Tomer, 2013. "Effect of real-time transit information on dynamic path choice of passengers," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:28, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    17. Valentina Trozzi & Guido Gentile & Ioannis Kaparias & Michael Bell, 2015. "Effects of Countdown Displays in Public Transport Route Choice Under Severe Overcrowding," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 823-842, September.
    18. Tian, Qingyun & Wang, David Z.W. & Lin, Yun Hui, 2021. "Service operation design in a transit network with congested common lines," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 81-102.
    19. Hamdouch, Younes & Ho, H.W. & Sumalee, Agachai & Wang, Guodong, 2011. "Schedule-based transit assignment model with vehicle capacity and seat availability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1805-1830.
    20. Redmond, Michael & Campbell, Ann Melissa & Ehmke, Jan Fabian, 2022. "Reliability in public transit networks considering backup itineraries," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 852-864.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:152:y:2021:i:c:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.