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Combined use of a backcast scenario and cross-impact matrix analysis to identify causes of uncertainty in a nascent transport infrastructure project

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  • Sykes, Pete
  • Bell, Margaret
  • Dissanayake, Dilum

Abstract

The transport planning decision process is, in theory, underpinned by rational analysis of travel behaviour and application of transport economics but project outcomes do not always follow the results of that analysis. Uncertainty is evident at all stages of the project development, as the concept emerges and as it moves through the subsequent assessment and decision processes. This research has investigated and demonstrated a method that quantifies the factors contributing to uncertainty, focussing on the early stages of the project lifecycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Sykes, Pete & Bell, Margaret & Dissanayake, Dilum, 2018. "Combined use of a backcast scenario and cross-impact matrix analysis to identify causes of uncertainty in a nascent transport infrastructure project," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 124-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:124-140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2018.08.007
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    2. Jodlbauer, Herbert & Tripathi, Shailesh & Brunner, Manuel & Bachmann, Nadine, 2022. "Stability of cross impact matrices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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