IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v92y2016icp59-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations

Author

Listed:
  • Lovreglio, Ruggiero
  • Fonzone, Achille
  • dell’Olio, Luigi

Abstract

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns is the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions on alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This study investigates the effect of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1503 participants is obtained and a mixed logit model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that the presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model indicates that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main aim of this study is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Fonzone, Achille & dell’Olio, Luigi, 2016. "A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 59-75.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:92:y:2016:i:c:p:59-75
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.06.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096585641630550X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2016.06.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ennio Cascetta, 2009. "Transportation Systems Analysis," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, Springer, number 978-0-387-75857-2, September.
    2. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Ronchi, Enrico & Nilsson, Daniel, 2015. "Calibrating floor field cellular automaton models for pedestrian dynamics by using likelihood function optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 308-320.
    3. Mike Thelwall, 2008. "Social networks, gender, and friending: An analysis of MySpace member profiles," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 59(8), pages 1321-1330, June.
    4. Rose, John M. & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Hensher, David A. & Collins, Andrew T., 2008. "Designing efficient stated choice experiments in the presence of reference alternatives," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 395-406, May.
    5. Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D. With contributions by-Name:Adamowicz,Wiktor, 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304.
    6. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387.
    7. Greene,William H. & Hensher,David A., 2010. "Modeling Ordered Choices," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521142373.
    8. Greene,William H. & Hensher,David A., 2010. "Modeling Ordered Choices," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521194204.
    9. Hess, Stephane & Bierlaire, Michel & Polak, John W., 2005. "Estimation of value of travel-time savings using mixed logit models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 221-236.
    10. Cramer,J. S., 2011. "Logit Models from Economics and Other Fields," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521188036.
    11. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Ronchi, Enrico & Borri, Dino, 2014. "The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 166-174.
    12. Train, Kenneth & Wilson, Wesley W., 2008. "Estimation on stated-preference experiments constructed from revealed-preference choices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 191-203, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arellana, J. & Garzón, L. & Estrada, J. & Cantillo, V., 2020. "On the use of virtual immersive reality for discrete choice experiments to modelling pedestrian behaviour," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Xu, Chenchen & Luo, Yiyang & Fuellhart, Kurt & Shao, Quan & Witlox, Frank, 2023. "Modeling exit choice behavior in airplane emergency evacuations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Tanaka, Masahiro & Yanagisawa, Daichi & Nishinari, Katsuhiro, 2018. "Exclusive queueing model including the choice of service windows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1481-1492.
    4. Haghani, Milad, 2021. "The knowledge domain of crowd dynamics: Anatomy of the field, pioneering studies, temporal trends, influential entities and outside-domain impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    5. Kinateder, Max & Warren, William H., 2021. "Exit choice during evacuation is influenced by both the size and proportion of the egressing crowd," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    6. Haghani, Milad & Sarvi, Majid, 2019. "Laboratory experimentation and simulation of discrete direction choices: Investigating hypothetical bias, decision-rule effect and external validity based on aggregate prediction measures," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 134-157.
    7. Haghani, Milad & Sarvi, Majid, 2018. "Hypothetical bias and decision-rule effect in modelling discrete directional choices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 361-388.
    8. Gao, Dong Li & Xie, Wei & Ming Lee, Eric Wai, 2022. "Individual-level exit choice behaviour under uncertain risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    9. Eliana Fischer & Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Annalisa Greco & Francesco Martinico & Alessandro Pluchino & Andrea Rapisarda, 2022. "Objective and Perceived Risk in Seismic Vulnerability Assessment at an Urban Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    10. Guo, Chenglin & Huo, Feizhou & Li, Chao & Li, Yufei, 2023. "An evacuation model considering the phototactic behavior of panic pedestrians under limited visual field," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 615(C).
    11. Wang, Xinjian & Liu, Zhengjiang & Loughney, Sean & Yang, Zaili & Wang, Yanfu & Wang, Jin, 2022. "Numerical analysis and staircase layout optimisation for a Ro-Ro passenger ship during emergency evacuation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    12. Zhou, Zi-Xuan & Nakanishi, Wataru & Asakura, Yasuo, 2021. "Data-driven framework for the adaptive exit selection problem in pedestrian flow: Visual information based heuristics approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 583(C).
    13. Zhang, Dezhen & Huang, Gaoyue & Ji, Chengtao & Liu, Huiying & Tang, Ying, 2021. "Pedestrian evacuation modeling and simulation in multi-exit scenarios," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haghani, Milad & Sarvi, Majid, 2018. "Hypothetical bias and decision-rule effect in modelling discrete directional choices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 361-388.
    2. Saxena, N. & Rashidi, T.H. & Dixit, V.V. & Waller, S.T., 2019. "Modelling the route choice behaviour under stop-&-go traffic for different car driver segments," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 62-72.
    3. Macea, Luis F. & Cantillo, Victor & Arellana, Julian, 2018. "Influence of attitudes and perceptions on deprivation cost functions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 125-141.
    4. Dias, Charitha & Abdullah, Muhammad & Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Sachchithanantham, Sumana & Rekatheeban, Markkandu & Sathyaprasad, I.M.S., 2022. "Exploring home-to-school trip mode choices in Kandy, Sri Lanka," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. Sadhukhan, Shubhajit & Banerjee, Uttam K. & Maitra, Bhargab, 2016. "Commuters’ willingness-to-pay for improvement of transfer facilities in and around metro stations – A case study in Kolkata," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 43-58.
    6. Chalak, Ali & Al-Naghi, Hani & Irani, Alexandra & Abou-Zeid, Maya, 2016. "Commuters’ behavior towards upgraded bus services in Greater Beirut: Implications for greenhouse gas emissions, social welfare and transport policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 265-285.
    7. Alix Le Goff & Guillaume Monchambert & Charles Raux, 2020. "Values of Time for Carpool Commuting with HOV lanes: A Discrete Choice Experiment in France," Working Papers halshs-02988756, HAL.
    8. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2011. "Experimental design influences on stated choice outputs: An empirical study in air travel choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 63-79, January.
    9. Bouscasse, Hélène & de Lapparent, Matthieu, 2019. "Perceived comfort and values of travel time savings in the Rhône-Alpes Region," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 370-387.
    10. David Hensher & John Rose & Zheng Li, 2012. "Does the choice model method and/or the data matter?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 351-385, March.
    11. Kaili Wang & Sanjana Hossain & Khandker Nurul Habib, 2022. "A hybrid data fusion methodology for household travel surveys to reduce proxy biases and under-representation of specific sub-group of population," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 1801-1836, December.
    12. Ali Ardeshiri & Spring Sampson & Joffre Swait, 2019. "Seasonality Effects on Consumers Preferences Over Quality Attributes of Different Beef Products," Papers 1902.02419, arXiv.org.
    13. Falco, Paolo & Maloney, William F. & Rijkers, Bob & Sarrias, Mauricio, 2015. "Heterogeneity in subjective wellbeing: An application to occupational allocation in Africa," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 137-153.
    14. Ermagun, Alireza & Stathopoulos, Amanda, 2018. "To bid or not to bid: An empirical study of the supply determinants of crowd-shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 468-483.
    15. Mohit Batham & Soudeh Mirghasemi & Mohammad Arshad Rahman & Manini Ojha, 2021. "Modeling and Analysis of Discrete Response Data: Applications to Public Opinion on Marijuana Legalization in the United States," Papers 2109.10122, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    16. George Parsons & Steven Thur, 2008. "Valuing Changes in the Quality of Coral Reef Ecosystems: A Stated Preference Study of SCUBA Diving in the Bonaire National Marine Park," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 593-608, August.
    17. Woo, C.K. & Ho, T. & Shiu, A. & Cheng, Y.S. & Horowitz, I. & Wang, J., 2014. "Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 204-210.
    18. Biancamaria Torquati & Giulia Giacchè & Tiziano Tempesta, 2020. "Landscapes and Services in Peri-Urban Areas and Choice of Housing Location: An Application of Discrete Choice Experiments," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-21, October.
    19. Pamela Giustinelli, 2016. "Group Decision Making With Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child–Parent Choice Of The High School Track," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 573-602, May.
    20. Mauricio Sarrias, 2020. "Random Parameters and Spatial Heterogeneity using Rchoice in R," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 7, pages 1-19.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:92:y:2016:i:c:p:59-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.