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Reliable route guidance: A case study from Chicago


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  • Nie, Yu (Marco)
  • Wu, Xing
  • Dillenburg, John F.
  • Nelson, Peter C.
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    Reliable route guidance can be obtained by solving the reliable a priori shortest path problem, which finds paths that maximize the probability of arriving on time. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the benefits and applicability of such route guidance using a case study. An adaptive discretization scheme is first proposed to improve the efficiency in computing convolution, a time-consuming step used in the reliable routing algorithm to obtain path travel time distributions. Methods to construct link travel time distributions from real data in the case study are then discussed. Particularly, the travel time distributions on arterial streets are estimated from linear regression models calibrated from expressway data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that optimal paths are substantially affected by the reliability requirement in rush hours, and that reliable route guidance could generate up to 5–15% of travel time savings. The study also verifies that existing algorithms can solve large-scale problems within a reasonable amount of time.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 46 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 403-419

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:2:p:403-419

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    Keywords: Reliable a priori shortest path problem; Route guidance; Linear regression; Case study;


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    1. Miller-Hooks, Elise & Mahmassani, Hani, 2003. "Path comparisons for a priori and time-adaptive decisions in stochastic, time-varying networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 67-82, April.
    2. Lo, Hong K. & Luo, X.W. & Siu, Barbara W.Y., 2006. "Degradable transport network: Travel time budget of travelers with heterogeneous risk aversion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 792-806, November.
    3. Jonathan F. Bard & James E. Bennett, 1991. "Arc Reduction and Path Preference in Stochastic Acyclic Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 37(2), pages 198-215, February.
    4. Liu, Henry X. & Recker, Will & Chen, Anthony, 2004. "Uncovering the contribution of travel time reliability to dynamic route choice using real-time loop data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 435-453, July.
    5. Hall, Randolph W., 1983. "Travel outcome and performance: The effect of uncertainty on accessibility," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 275-290, August.
    6. Nie, Yu (Marco) & Wu, Xing, 2009. "Shortest path problem considering on-time arrival probability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 597-613, July.
    7. Carraway, Robert L. & Morin, Thomas L. & Moskowitz, Herbert, 1990. "Generalized dynamic programming for multicriteria optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 95-104, January.
    8. Wu, Xing & (Marco) Nie, Yu, 2011. "Modeling heterogeneous risk-taking behavior in route choice: A stochastic dominance approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 896-915, November.
    9. Yueyue Fan & Yu Nie, 2006. "Optimal Routing for Maximizing the Travel Time Reliability," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 333-344, September.
    10. Hadar, Josef & Russell, William R, 1969. "Rules for Ordering Uncertain Prospects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 25-34, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Zhao, Tingting & Nie, Yu (Marco) & Zhang, Yi, 2014. "Extended spectral envelope method for detecting and analyzing traffic oscillations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-16.


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