IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v42y2008i1p140-154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model

Author

Listed:
  • Lindell, Michael K.

Abstract

This article describes a simple, rapid method for calculating evacuation time estimates (ETEs) that is compatible with research findings about evacuees' behavior in hurricanes. This revision of an earlier version of the empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate method (EMBLEM) uses empirical data derived from behavioral surveys and allows local emergency managers to calculate ETEs by specifying four evacuation route system parameters, 16 behavioral parameters, and five evacuation scope/timing parameters. EMBLEM2 is implemented within a menu-driven evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS) that local emergency managers can use to calculate ETEs and conduct sensitivity analyses to examine the effects of plausible variation in the parameters. In addition, they can run EMDSS in real time (less than 10Â min of run time) to recalculate ETEs while monitoring an approaching hurricane. The article provides an example using EMDSS to calculate ETEs for San Patricio County Texas and discusses directions for further improvements of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindell, Michael K., 2008. "EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 140-154, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:42:y:2008:i:1:p:140-154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965-8564(07)00056-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenelius, Erik & Petersen, Tom & Mattsson, Lars-Göran, 2006. "Importance and exposure in road network vulnerability analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 537-560, August.
    2. Michael Lindell & Carla Prater, 2007. "A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(3), pages 627-634, March.
    3. Xuwei Chen & John Meaker & F. Zhan, 2006. "Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Procedures for the Florida Keys," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(3), pages 321-338, July.
    4. Sohn, Jungyul, 2006. "Evaluating the significance of highway network links under the flood damage: An accessibility approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 491-506, July.
    5. Cova, Thomas J. & Johnson, Justin P., 2003. "A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 579-604, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Dapeng Li & Frank A. Drews & Laura K. Siebeneck & Michael K. Lindell, 2017. "Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 601-611, April.
    2. Shih-Kai Huang & Hao-Che Wu & Michael K. Lindell & Hung-Lung Wei & Charles D. Samuelson, 2017. "Perceptions, behavioral expectations, and implementation timing for response actions in a hurricane emergency," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 533-558, August.
    3. Yang, Xia & Ban, Xuegang (Jeff) & Mitchell, John, 2018. "Modeling multimodal transportation network emergency evacuation considering evacuees’ cooperative behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 380-397.
    4. Rachel A. Davidson & Linda K. Nozick & Tricia Wachtendorf & Brian Blanton & Brian Colle & Randall L. Kolar & Sarah DeYoung & Kendra M. Dresback & Wenqi Yi & Kun Yang & Nicholas Leonardo, 2020. "An Integrated Scenario Ensemble‐Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1—Decision Support System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 97-116, January.
    5. Hao‐Che Wu & Michael K. Lindell & Carla S. Prater & Charles D. Samuelson, 2014. "Effects of Track and Threat Information on Judgments of Hurricane Strike Probability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1025-1039, June.
    6. Stepanov, Alexander & Smith, James MacGregor, 2009. "Multi-objective evacuation routing in transportation networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 435-446, October.
    7. Adam E. Clark & Ronald R. Hagelman & Richard W. Dixon, 2020. "Modeling a contraflow evacuation method for tropical cyclone evacuations in Nueces County, Texas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2757-2786, September.
    8. Praveen Maghelal & Xiangyu Li & Walter Gillis Peacock, 2017. "Highway congestion during evacuation: examining the household’s choice of number of vehicles to evacuate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1399-1411, July.
    9. Ben-Tal, Aharon & Chung, Byung Do & Mandala, Supreet Reddy & Yao, Tao, 2011. "Robust optimization for emergency logistics planning: Risk mitigation in humanitarian relief supply chains," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1177-1189, September.
    10. Hao-Che Wu & Michael Lindell & Carla Prater, 2015. "Strike probability judgments and protective action recommendations in a dynamic hurricane tracking task," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 355-380, October.
    11. José Marrero & Alicia García & Angeles Llinares & Servando Cruz-Reyna & Silvia Ramos & Ramón Ortiz, 2013. "Virtual tools for volcanic crisis management, and evacuation decision support: applications to El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 955-980, September.
    12. Adam Pel & Michiel Bliemer & Serge Hoogendoorn, 2012. "A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 97-123, January.
    13. Yulei Song & Xuedong Yan, 2016. "A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, October.
    14. Guy Wachtel & Jan-Dirk Schmöcker & Yuval Hadas & Yuhan Gao & Oren E Nahum & Boaz Ben-Moshe, 2021. "Planning for tourist urban evacuation routes: A framework for improving the data collection and evacuation processes," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 1108-1125, June.
    15. Uchida, Kenetsu, 2012. "A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 530-537.
    16. Zhenhan Du & Qiming Zhong & Shengyao Mei & Yibo Shan, 2023. "Risk assessment of dammed lakes in China based on Bayesian network," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 129-161, January.
    17. Herrera-Restrepo, Oscar & Triantis, Konstantinos & Trainor, Joseph & Murray-Tuite, Pamela & Edara, Praveen, 2016. "A multi-perspective dynamic network performance efficiency measurement of an evacuation: A dynamic network-DEA approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 45-59.
    18. Kun Yang & Rachel A. Davidson & Humberto Vergara & Randall L. Kolar & Kendra M. Dresback & Brian A. Colle & Brian Blanton & Tricia Wachtendorf & Jennifer Trivedi & Linda K. Nozick, 2019. "Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 857-878, March.
    19. Michael Lindell & Jung Kang & Carla Prater, 2011. "The logistics of household hurricane evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1093-1109, September.
    20. Yunyue He & Zhong Liu & Jianmai Shi & Yishan Wang & Jiaming Zhang & Jinyuan Liu, 2015. "K-Shortest-Path-Based Evacuation Routing with Police Resource Allocation in City Transportation Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    21. Madireddy, Manini & Kumara, Soundar & Medeiros, D.J. & Shankar, Venky N., 2015. "Leveraging social networks for efficient hurricane evacuation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 199-212.
    22. Rambha, Tarun & Nozick, Linda K. & Davidson, Rachel, 2021. "Modeling hurricane evacuation behavior using a dynamic discrete choice framework," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 75-100.
    23. Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Frank A. Drews, 2011. "Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-26, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Nan & Huang, Hong & Su, Boni & Zhao, Jinlong, 2015. "Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 171-183.
    2. Jenelius, Erik, 2010. "User inequity implications of road network vulnerability," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 2(3), pages 57-73.
    3. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran, 2012. "Road network vulnerability analysis of area-covering disruptions: A grid-based approach with case study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 746-760.
    4. Almoghathawi, Yasser & Barker, Kash & Rocco, Claudio M. & Nicholson, Charles D., 2017. "A multi-criteria decision analysis approach for importance identification and ranking of network components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 142-151.
    5. Rolf Nyberg & Magnus Johansson, 2013. "Indicators of road network vulnerability to storm-felled trees," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 185-199, October.
    6. Sarlas, Georgios & Páez, Antonio & Axhausen, Kay W., 2020. "Betweenness-accessibility: Estimating impacts of accessibility on networks," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Yu Miao & Anning Ni, 2019. "Vulnerability Analysis of Intercity Multimode Transportation Networks; A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
    8. Jian Li & Kaan Ozbay & Bekir Bartin, 2015. "Effects of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy in New Jersey: traffic patterns and highway disruptions during evacuations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 2081-2107, September.
    9. Rodríguez-Núñez, Eduardo & García-Palomares, Juan Carlos, 2014. "Measuring the vulnerability of public transport networks," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 50-63.
    10. Ortega, Emilio & Martín, Belén & Aparicio, Ángel, 2020. "Identification of critical sections of the Spanish transport system due to climate scenarios," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Kevin D. Henry & Nathan J. Wood & Tim G. Frazier, 2017. "Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1665-1687, February.
    12. Victor Cantillo & Luis F. Macea & Miguel Jaller, 2019. "Assessing Vulnerability of Transportation Networks for Disaster Response Operations," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 243-273, March.
    13. Freiria, Susana & Ribeiro, Bernardete & Tavares, Alexandre O., 2015. "Understanding road network dynamics: Link-based topological patterns," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 55-66.
    14. Oded Cats & Erik Jenelius, 2014. "Dynamic Vulnerability Analysis of Public Transport Networks: Mitigation Effects of Real-Time Information," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 435-463, December.
    15. Juan Carlos García-Palomares & Javier Gutiérrez & Juan Carlos Martín & Borja Moya-Gómez, 2018. "An analysis of the Spanish high capacity road network criticality," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1139-1159, July.
    16. Lu, Qing-Chang & Xu, Peng-Cheng & Zhang, Jingxiao, 2021. "Infrastructure-based transportation network vulnerability modeling and analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 584(C).
    17. Khademi, Navid & Babaei, Mohsen & Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk & Fani, Amirhossein, 2018. "Analysis of incident costs in a vulnerable sparse rail network – Description and Iran case study," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 9-27.
    18. Denissa Sari Darmawi Purba & Eleftheria Kontou & Chrysafis Vogiatzis, 2021. "Evacuation Route Planning for Alternative Fuel Vehicles," Papers 2109.01578, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    19. Myungsik Do & Hoyong Jung, 2018. "Enhancing Road Network Resilience by Considering the Performance Loss and Asset Value," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-15, November.
    20. Özdamar, Linet & Ertem, Mustafa Alp, 2015. "Models, solutions and enabling technologies in humanitarian logistics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 55-65.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:42:y:2008:i:1:p:140-154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.