IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v139y2019icp250-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measurement framework for assessing disruptive innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Jianfeng
  • Pan, Jiaofeng
  • Guo, Jianxin
  • Gu, Fu
  • Kuusisto, Jari

Abstract

Assessing potential disruptiveness of innovations is an important but challenging task for incumbents. However, the extant literature focuses only on technological and marketplace aspects, and most of the documented methods tend to be case specific. In this study, we present a multidimensional measurement framework to assess the disruptive potential of product innovations. The framework is designed based on the concept that the nature of disruptive innovations is multidimensional. Three aspects are considered, i.e., technological features, marketplace dynamics and external environment. Ten indicators of the three categories are proposed and then connected based on the conceptual and literature analysis. Three innovations, namely, WeChat (successful), Modularised Mobile Phone (failed) and Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality (ongoing), are selected as case studies. A panel of industrial experts with PhD degree in engineering is surveyed. The survey results are calculated and analysed according to the framework and then compared against the developments of the innovations. We also check the robustness of this framework by surveying other groups of people, and the results are nearly identical to the previous findings. This study enables a systematic assessment of disruptive potential of innovations using the framework, providing insights for decisions in product launch and resource allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Jianfeng & Pan, Jiaofeng & Guo, Jianxin & Gu, Fu & Kuusisto, Jari, 2019. "Measurement framework for assessing disruptive innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 250-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:250-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518306656
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clarysse, Bart & Wright, Mike & Bruneel, Johan & Mahajan, Aarti, 2014. "Creating value in ecosystems: Crossing the chasm between knowledge and business ecosystems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1164-1176.
    2. Hubert Gatignon & Michael L. Tushman & Wendy Smith & Philip Anderson, 2002. "A Structural Approach to Assessing Innovation: Construct Development of Innovation Locus, Type, and Characteristics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(9), pages 1103-1122, September.
    3. Dijk, Marc & Wells, Peter & Kemp, René, 2016. "Will the momentum of the electric car last? Testing an hypothesis on disruptive innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 77-88.
    4. Pulkki-Brännström, Anni-Maria & Stoneman, Paul, 2013. "On the patterns and determinants of the global diffusion of new technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 1768-1779.
    5. Ashish Sood & Gerard J. Tellis, 2011. "Demystifying Disruption: A New Model for Understanding and Predicting Disruptive Technologies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 339-354, 03-04.
    6. Judd Cramer & Alan B. Krueger, 2016. "Disruptive Change in the Taxi Business: The Case of Uber," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 177-182, May.
    7. Müller, Moritz & Cowan, Robin & Barnard, Helena, 2018. "On the value of foreign PhDs in the developing world: Training versus selection effects in the case of South Africa," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 886-900.
    8. Heidenreich, Martin, 2009. "Innovation patterns and location of European low- and medium-technology industries," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 483-494, April.
    9. Dijk, Marc & Orsato, Renato J. & Kemp, René, 2015. "Towards a regime-based typology of market evolution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 276-289.
    10. Bergek, Anna & Berggren, Christian & Magnusson, Thomas & Hobday, Michael, 2013. "Technological discontinuities and the challenge for incumbent firms: Destruction, disruption or creative accumulation?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1210-1224.
    11. Gao, Yanyan & Zang, Leizhen & Roth, Antoine & Wang, Puqu, 2017. "Does democracy cause innovation? An empirical test of the popper hypothesis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1272-1283.
    12. Andergassen, Rainer & Nardini, Franco & Ricottilli, Massimo, 2017. "Innovation diffusion, general purpose technologies and economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-80.
    13. Pandit, Deepak & Joshi, Maheshkumar P. & Sahay, Arun & Gupta, Rajen K., 2018. "Disruptive innovation and dynamic capabilities in emerging economies: Evidence from the Indian automotive sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 323-329.
    14. van der Have, Robert P. & Rubalcaba, Luis, 2016. "Social innovation research: An emerging area of innovation studies?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1923-1935.
    15. Feder, Christophe, 2018. "The effects of disruptive innovations on productivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 186-193.
    16. Gambardella, Alfonso & Giarratana, Marco S., 2013. "General technological capabilities, product market fragmentation, and markets for technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 315-325.
    17. Herrera, Liliana & Nieto, Mariano, 2016. "PhD careers in Spanish industry: Job determinants in manufacturing versus non-manufacturing firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 113(PB), pages 341-351.
    18. Hung, Chih-Young & Lee, Wen-Yi, 2016. "A proactive technology selection model for new technology: The case of 3D IC TSV," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 191-202.
    19. Klenner, Philipp & Hüsig, Stefan & Dowling, Michael, 2013. "Ex-ante evaluation of disruptive susceptibility in established value networks—When are markets ready for disruptive innovations?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 914-927.
    20. Li, Munan & Porter, Alan L. & Suominen, Arho, 2018. "Insights into relationships between disruptive technology/innovation and emerging technology: A bibliometric perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 285-296.
    21. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    22. Momeni, Abdolreza & Rost, Katja, 2016. "Identification and monitoring of possible disruptive technologies by patent-development paths and topic modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 16-29.
    23. van den Broek, Tijs & van Veenstra, Anne Fleur, 2018. "Governance of big data collaborations: How to balance regulatory compliance and disruptive innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 330-338.
    24. Santos, João M. & Horta, Hugo & Heitor, Manuel, 2016. "Too many PhDs? An invalid argument for countries developing their scientific and academic systems: The case of Portugal," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 113(PB), pages 352-362.
    25. Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Disruptive innovation, managerial cognition, and technology competition outcomes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 116-128.
    26. Reinhardt, Ronny & Gurtner, Sebastian, 2018. "The overlooked role of embeddedness in disruptive innovation theory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 268-283.
    27. Huergo, Elena & Moreno, Lourdes, 2017. "Subsidies or loans? Evaluating the impact of R&D support programmes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1198-1214.
    28. Ron Adner & Peter Zemsky, 2005. "Disruptive Technologies and the Emergence of Competition," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(2), pages 229-254, Summer.
    29. MacGillivray, Andrew & Jeffrey, Henry & Winskel, Mark & Bryden, Ian, 2014. "Innovation and cost reduction for marine renewable energy: A learning investment sensitivity analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 108-124.
    30. de Jong, Jeroen P.J. & von Hippel, Eric & Gault, Fred & Kuusisto, Jari & Raasch, Christina, 2015. "Market failure in the diffusion of consumer-developed innovations: Patterns in Finland," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1856-1865.
    31. Dahlin, Kristina B. & Behrens, Dean M., 2005. "When is an invention really radical?: Defining and measuring technological radicalness," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 717-737, June.
    32. Pérez, Carlos J. & Ponce, Carlos J., 2015. "Disruption costs, learning by doing, and technology adoption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 64-75.
    33. Roy, Raja & Cohen, Susan K., 2015. "Disruption in the US machine tool industry: The role of inhouse users and pre-disruption component experience in firm response," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1555-1565.
    34. Hasan, Iftekhar & Tucci, Christopher L., 2010. "The innovation-economic growth nexus: Global evidence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1264-1276, December.
    35. Kristina Dahlin & Deans M. Behrens, 2005. "When is an invention really radical? Defining and measuring technological radicalness," Post-Print hal-00480416, HAL.
    36. Roy, Raja, 2018. "Role of relevant lead users of mainstream product in the emergence of disruptive innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 314-322.
    37. Rayna, Thierry & Striukova, Ludmila, 2016. "From rapid prototyping to home fabrication: How 3D printing is changing business model innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 214-224.
    38. Walrave, Bob & Talmar, Madis & Podoynitsyna, Ksenia S. & Romme, A. Georges L. & Verbong, Geert P.J., 2018. "A multi-level perspective on innovation ecosystems for path-breaking innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 103-113.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angélica Pigola & Priscila Rezende Costa, 2022. "In search of understanding about knowledge and learning on innovation performance," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(7), pages 3995-4022, July.
    2. Benzidia, Smaïl & Luca, Ruxandra Monica & Boiko, Sergiy, 2021. "Disruptive innovation, business models, and encroachment strategies: Buyer's perspective on electric and hybrid vehicle technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. Song, Yang & Zhang, Zhiyuan & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Rubin, Ofir, 2023. "Incentivizing green technology innovation to confront sustainable development," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Yoon, Jungsub & Lee, Jeong-Dong & Hwang, Seogwon, 2022. "Episodic change: A new approach to identifying industrial transition," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Blume, Maximilian & Oberländer, Anna Maria & Röglinger, Maximilian & Rosemann, Michael & Wyrtki, Katrin, 2020. "Ex ante assessment of disruptive threats: Identifying relevant threats before one is disrupted," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Langley, Paul & Rieple, Alison, 2021. "Incumbents’ capabilities to win in a digitised world: The case of the fashion industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Antonio, Jerome L. & Kanbach, Dominik K., 2023. "Contextual factors of disruptive innovation: A systematic review and framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    8. Mario Coccia, 2020. "Cyclical phenomena in technological change," Papers 2010.03168, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    9. Mikel Zubizarreta & Jaione Ganzarain & Jesús Cuadrado & Rafael Lizarralde, 2020. "Evaluating Disruptive Innovation Project Management Capabilities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, December.
    10. Min, Chao & Bu, Yi & Sun, Jianjun, 2021. "Predicting scientific breakthroughs based on knowledge structure variations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    11. Cruz-Cárdenas, Jorge & Zabelina, Ekaterina & Deyneka, Olga & Guadalupe-Lanas, Jorge & Velín-Fárez, Margarita, 2019. "Role of demographic factors, attitudes toward technology, and cultural values in the prediction of technology-based consumer behaviors: A study in developing and emerging countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    12. Wang, Chenxiao & Qureshi, Israr & Guo, Feng & Zhang, Qingpu, 2022. "Corporate social responsibility and disruptive innovation: The moderating effects of environmental turbulence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1435-1450.
    13. Peltier, James W. & Dahl, Andrew J. & Swan, Eric L., 2020. "Digital information flows across a B2C/C2C continuum and technological innovations in service ecosystems: A service-dominant logic perspective," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 724-734.
    14. Castañeda-Ayarza, Juan Arturo & Godoi, Beatriz Araújo, 2021. "Macro-environmental influence on the development of Brazilian fuel ethanol between 1975 and 2019," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Adedotun Joseph Adenigbo & Joash Mageto & Rose Luke, 2023. "Adopting Technological Innovations in the Air Cargo Logistics Industry in South Africa," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, November.
    16. Shengxuan Tang & Ming Cai & Yao Xiao, 2024. "A Cross-Citation-Based Model for Technological Advancement Assessment: Methodology and Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonio, Jerome L. & Kanbach, Dominik K., 2023. "Contextual factors of disruptive innovation: A systematic review and framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    2. Blume, Maximilian & Oberländer, Anna Maria & Röglinger, Maximilian & Rosemann, Michael & Wyrtki, Katrin, 2020. "Ex ante assessment of disruptive threats: Identifying relevant threats before one is disrupted," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Julian Marius Müller & Raphael Kunderer, 2019. "Ex-Ante Prediction of Disruptive Innovation: The Case of Battery Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Mikel Zubizarreta & Jaione Ganzarain & Jesús Cuadrado & Rafael Lizarralde, 2020. "Evaluating Disruptive Innovation Project Management Capabilities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Cheng, Yu & Huang, Lucheng & Ramlogan, Ronnie & Li, Xin, 2017. "Forecasting of potential impacts of disruptive technology in promising technological areas: Elaborating the SIRS epidemic model in RFID technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-183.
    6. Preißner, Stephanie & Raasch, Christina & Schweisfurth, Tim, 2017. "Is necessity the mother of disruption?," Kiel Working Papers 2097, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Lindberg, Marie Byskov & Markard, Jochen & Andersen, Allan Dahl, 2019. "Policies, actors and sustainability transition pathways: A study of the EU’s energy policy mix," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(10).
    8. Swen Nadkarni & Reinhard Prügl, 2021. "Digital transformation: a review, synthesis and opportunities for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 233-341, April.
    9. Yoon, Jungsub & Lee, Jeong-Dong & Hwang, Seogwon, 2022. "Episodic change: A new approach to identifying industrial transition," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Mario Coccia, 2020. "Cyclical phenomena in technological change," Papers 2010.03168, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    11. Klimczuk-Kochańska, Magdalena, 2016. "Rola innowacji miękkich w badaniach innowacyjności przedsiębiorstw z sektorów niskotechnologicznych na przykładzie sektora spożywczego [The Role of the Soft Innovation in the Research of Low-Tech S," MPRA Paper 84757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Nguyen, Bang & Yu, Xiaoyu & Melewar, T.C. & Gupta, Suraksha, 2016. "Critical brand innovation factors (CBIF): Understanding innovation and market performance in the Chinese high-tech service industry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 2471-2479.
    13. Schmidt, Arne & Walter, Sascha G. & Walter, Achim, 2010. "Contingency Factors and the Technology-Performance-Relationship in Start-ups," EconStor Preprints 37082, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Raphael Klein & Uzi Haan & Albert Goldberg, 2010. "Corporate Exploration Competence and the Entrepreneurial Enterprise," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 1(2), pages 86-116, June.
    15. Minhao Xiang & Dian Fu & Kun Lv, 2023. "Identifying and Predicting Trends of Disruptive Technologies: An Empirical Study Based on Text Mining and Time Series Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, March.
    16. Feder, Christophe, 2018. "The effects of disruptive innovations on productivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 186-193.
    17. Sun, Bixuan & Kolesnikov, Sergey & Goldstein, Anna & Chan, Gabriel, 2021. "A dynamic approach for identifying technological breakthroughs with an application in solar photovoltaics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    18. Matt Marx & Joshua S. Gans & David H. Hsu, 2014. "Dynamic Commercialization Strategies for Disruptive Technologies: Evidence from the Speech Recognition Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 3103-3123, December.
    19. Benzidia, Smaïl & Luca, Ruxandra Monica & Boiko, Sergiy, 2021. "Disruptive innovation, business models, and encroachment strategies: Buyer's perspective on electric and hybrid vehicle technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Xu, Haiyun & Winnink, Jos & Yue, Zenghui & Zhang, Huiling & Pang, Hongshen, 2021. "Multidimensional Scientometric indicators for the detection of emerging research topics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:250-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.