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Ex-ante evaluation of disruptive susceptibility in established value networks—When are markets ready for disruptive innovations?

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  • Klenner, Philipp
  • Hüsig, Stefan
  • Dowling, Michael

Abstract

In this paper, we examine a markets’ readiness for potential disruptive innovations based on past and current conditions. For this purpose, we developed a theoretical framework to evaluate the “disruptive susceptibility” of value networks. Using the construct of disruptive susceptibility, we assess the potential market entry of new companies as sources of disruptive innovations and the market utilization of these innovations. We derived theoretical propositions from existing literature in the field of disruptive innovations with a focus on an ex ante analysis. Furthermore, we applied this preliminary theoretical framework using an in-depth and longitudinal case-study of the amateur photo camera market in Germany to analyze the propositions for disruptive susceptibility on a past disruptive innovation for consistency. Based on the insights of the case study, we refined our theoretical framework. Finally, the refined framework was used from an ex ante perspective to analyze the German electric car market. The results of both case studies indicate that the disruptive susceptibility of established value networks is closely related to the market and organizational maturity. Furthermore, we propose that the overshooting factor of customers might be a conditional but not an imperative factor influencing disruptive susceptibility. Our modified framework would indicate that if the overshooting of customers and other special market conditions are present simultaneously, then the disruptive susceptibility can reach a critical level, and potential disruptive innovations can be successfully introduced into an established value network. Moreover, in our framework, a high degree of disruptive susceptibility would suggest that a low-end market must be present before a disruptive innovation can successfully enter a market. Finally, we propose that the introduction of radical-sustaining innovations by the incumbents in an established value network is a good indicator for a high degree of disruptive susceptibility.

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  • Klenner, Philipp & Hüsig, Stefan & Dowling, Michael, 2013. "Ex-ante evaluation of disruptive susceptibility in established value networks—When are markets ready for disruptive innovations?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 914-927.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:42:y:2013:i:4:p:914-927
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2012.12.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Schuelke-Leech, Beth-Anne, 2018. "A model for understanding the orders of magnitude of disruptive technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 261-274.
    6. Blume, Maximilian & Oberländer, Anna Maria & Röglinger, Maximilian & Rosemann, Michael & Wyrtki, Katrin, 2020. "Ex ante assessment of disruptive threats: Identifying relevant threats before one is disrupted," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Takey, Silvia Mayumi & Carvalho, Marly M., 2016. "Fuzzy front end of systemic innovations: A conceptual framework based on a systematic literature review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 97-109.
    8. Antonio, Jerome L. & Kanbach, Dominik K., 2023. "Contextual factors of disruptive innovation: A systematic review and framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    9. Sommarberg, Matti & Mäkinen, Saku J., 2019. "A method for anticipating the disruptive nature of digitalization in the machine-building industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 808-819.
    10. Reinhard Prügl & Dinah Isabel Spitzley, 2021. "Responding to Digital Transformation by External Corporate Venturing: An Enterprising Family Identity and Communication Patterns Perspective," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 135-164, January.
    11. Pierre-Jean Benghozi & Elisa Salvador, 2015. "Technological competition: a path towards commoditization or differentiation? Some evidence from a comparison of e-book readers," Post-Print hal-02080207, HAL.
    12. Petzold, Neele & Schmidt, Alexander Lennart & Scaringella, Laurent, 2023. "How to overcome the disruptor's dilemma: Exploring strategic alliance reconfiguration of new market entrants," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    15. Reinhardt, Ronny & Gurtner, Sebastian, 2018. "The overlooked role of embeddedness in disruptive innovation theory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 268-283.
    16. Guo, Jianfeng & Pan, Jiaofeng & Guo, Jianxin & Gu, Fu & Kuusisto, Jari, 2019. "Measurement framework for assessing disruptive innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 250-265.

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