IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v129y2018icp261-274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A model for understanding the orders of magnitude of disruptive technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Schuelke-Leech, Beth-Anne

Abstract

There are numerous emerging technologies that are potentially disruptive to business, to government, and to society. This paper looks at the two levels of disruptive technologies. A first order disruption is a localized change, within a market or industry. A second order disruption has much larger influences, affecting many industries and substantially changing societal norms and institutions. This paper presents an analysis of these types of disruptions and synthesizes the literature on disruptive technologies and Kondratieff's long waves. Previous definitions of disruptive technologies have focused on disruptions to commercial markets and existing firms. That is, on the first order of disruption, where a particular technology is disruptive. The second order disruptions are technological disruptions, where the impacts ripple through society. That is, these technologies disrupt social interactions and relationships, organizational structures, institutions and public policies. Since innovation ecosystems are complex, dynamic, adaptive systems, technological design and development necessarily interact with social trends. Understanding and modelling potential disruptions will require taking a holistic perspective of the socio-technical innovation ecosystem. This paper lays out a conceptual model of first and second order disruptions and identifies the key factors necessary for modelling the process that results in second order disruptions—a process that necessarily occurs at the intersection of several highly-complex interactive systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Schuelke-Leech, Beth-Anne, 2018. "A model for understanding the orders of magnitude of disruptive technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 261-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:129:y:2018:i:c:p:261-274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.09.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517314610
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.09.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:mpr:mprres:6385 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. N. Berger, Allen & F. Udell, Gregory, 1998. "The economics of small business finance: The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 613-673, August.
    3. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2012. "Why Are the Stakes So High? Misconceptions and Misunderstandings in China’s Global Quest for Energy Security," Energy: Resources and Markets 130548, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Fred Block & Matthew R. Keller, 2011. "Where do Innovations Come From? Transformations in the U.S. Economy, 1970-2006," The Other Canon Foundation and Tallinn University of Technology Working Papers in Technology Governance and Economic Dynamics 35, TUT Ragnar Nurkse Department of Innovation and Governance.
    5. Martin Neil Baily & Barry P. Bosworth, 2014. "US Manufacturing: Understanding Its Past and Its Potential Future," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    6. Schuelke-Leech, Beth-Anne & Barry, Betsy & Muratori, Matteo & Yurkovich, B.J., 2015. "Big Data issues and opportunities for electric utilities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 937-947.
    7. Thomas J. Chemmanur & Elena Loutskina & Xuan Tian, 2014. "Corporate Venture Capital, Value Creation, and Innovation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(8), pages 2434-2473.
    8. Willard F. Mueller, 1962. "The Origins of the Basic Inventions Underlying Du Pont's Major Product and Process Innovations, 1920 to 1950," NBER Chapters, in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 323-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2012. "On the Life Cycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2247-2293, December.
    10. Douglas A. Irwin, 2015. "Free Trade under Fire Fourth edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 4, number 10486.
    11. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1963. "Technological Change in the Machine Tool Industry, 1840–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 414-443, December.
    12. William LAZONICK, 2008. "The Quest for Shareholder Value : Stock Repurchases in the US Economy," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2008043, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    13. Sundararajan, Arun, 2016. "The Sharing Economy: The End of Employment and the Rise of Crowd-Based Capitalism," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262034573, December.
    14. Andrew Tylecote, 1994. "Long Waves, Long Cycles, and Long Swings," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 477-488, June.
    15. Thelen,Kathleen, 2004. "How Institutions Evolve," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521837682.
    16. North, Douglass C., 1971. "Institutional Change and Economic Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 118-125, March.
    17. William Lazonick, 2008. "The Quest for Shareholder Value: Stock Repurchases in the US Economy," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 74(4), pages 479-540.
    18. Lazonick William, 2009. "The New Economy Business Model and the Crisis of U.S. Capitalism," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-70, October.
    19. Adams, James D. & Black, Grant C. & Clemmons, J. Roger & Stephan, Paula E., 2005. "Scientific teams and institutional collaborations: Evidence from U.S. universities, 1981-1999," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-285, April.
    20. Klenner, Philipp & Hüsig, Stefan & Dowling, Michael, 2013. "Ex-ante evaluation of disruptive susceptibility in established value networks—When are markets ready for disruptive innovations?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 914-927.
    21. Richard Baldwin & Javier Lopez-Gonzalez, 2015. "Supply-chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1682-1721, November.
    22. Mokyr, Joel, 1992. "Technological Inertia in Economic History," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 325-338, June.
    23. Kallunki, Juha-Pekka & Laitinen, Erkki K. & Silvola, Hanna, 2011. "Impact of enterprise resource planning systems on management control systems and firm performance," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 20-39.
    24. Thelen,Kathleen, 2004. "How Institutions Evolve," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521546744.
    25. John L. Enos, 1962. "Invention and Innovation in the Petroleum Refining Industry," NBER Chapters, in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 299-322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056, Decembrie.
    27. Su, Yi-fen & Yang, Chyan, 2010. "Why are enterprise resource planning systems indispensable to supply chain management?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 81-94, May.
    28. Lazonick, William & Tulum, Öner, 2011. "US biopharmaceutical finance and the sustainability of the biotech business model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1170-1187.
    29. Schatzberg, Eric, 2003. "Symbolic Culture and Technological Change: The Cultural History of Aluminum as an Industrial Material," Enterprise & Society, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 226-271, June.
    30. Chris Freeman & Luc Soete, 1997. "The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262061953, December.
    31. Porter, Michael E, 1979. "The Structure within Industries and Companies' Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 214-227, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chammassian, Raffi Gabriel & Sabatier, Valerie, 2020. "The role of costs in business model design for early-stage technology startups," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Ipert, Chloé & Mauer, René, 2023. "Infrastructural or organizational decentralization? Developing a typology of blockchain ventures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Bingqiang Li & Lei Huang, 2019. "The Effect of Incremental Innovation and Disruptive Innovation on the Sustainable Development of Manufacturing in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    4. Baudier, Patricia & Kondrateva, Galina & Ammi, Chantal & Chang, Victor & Schiavone, Francesco, 2023. "Digital transformation of healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic: Patients’ teleconsultation acceptance and trusting beliefs," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Song, Yang & Zhang, Zhiyuan & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Rubin, Ofir, 2023. "Incentivizing green technology innovation to confront sustainable development," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Hopster, Jeroen, 2021. "What are socially disruptive technologies?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Padmanathan Kasinathan & Rishi Pugazhendhi & Rajvikram Madurai Elavarasan & Vigna Kumaran Ramachandaramurthy & Vinoth Ramanathan & Senthilkumar Subramanian & Sachin Kumar & Kamalakannan Nandhagopal & , 2022. "Realization of Sustainable Development Goals with Disruptive Technologies by Integrating Industry 5.0, Society 5.0, Smart Cities and Villages," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-31, November.
    8. Trabucchi, Daniel & Talenti, Luca & Buganza, Tommaso, 2019. "How do Big Bang Disruptors look like? A Business Model perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 330-340.
    9. Blume, Maximilian & Oberländer, Anna Maria & Röglinger, Maximilian & Rosemann, Michael & Wyrtki, Katrin, 2020. "Ex ante assessment of disruptive threats: Identifying relevant threats before one is disrupted," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Baudier, Patricia & Kondrateva, Galina & Ammi, Chantal & Seulliet, Eric, 2021. "Peace engineering: The contribution of blockchain systems to the e-voting process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Yanzhang Gu & Longying Hu & Hongjin Zhang & Chenxuan Hou, 2021. "Innovation Ecosystem Research: Emerging Trends and Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-21, October.
    12. Antonio, Jerome L. & Kanbach, Dominik K., 2023. "Contextual factors of disruptive innovation: A systematic review and framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    13. Mario Coccia, 2020. "Cyclical phenomena in technological change," Papers 2010.03168, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    14. Bingqiang Li & Jing Yu & Lei Huang & Jinzhi Li & Changhan Luo, 2021. "Coupling Development of Manufacturing Promotion and Innovation in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    15. Ponzoa, José M. & Gómez, Andrés & Villaverde, Silvia & Díaz, Vicente, 2021. "Technologically empowered? perception and acceptance of AR glasses and 3D printers in new generations of consumers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    16. Helen Dickinson & Catherine Smith & Nicole Carey & Gemma Carey, 2021. "Exploring governance tensions of disruptive technologies: the case of care robots in Australia and New Zealand [A regulatory approach for the Australian Charities and Not‐ for‐profit Commission: A ," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 40(2), pages 232-249.
    17. Patricia Baudier & Galina Kondrateva & Chantal Ammi & Eric Seulliet, 2021. "Peace engineering : the contribution of blockchain systems to the e-voting process," Post-Print hal-02972161, HAL.
    18. Löhr, Guido, 2023. "Conceptual disruption and 21st century technologies: A framework," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Rijswijk, Kelly & de Vries, Jasper R. & Klerkx, Laurens & Turner, James A., 2023. "The enabling and constraining connections between trust and digitalisation in incumbent value chains," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    20. Andrea North-Samardzic, 2020. "Biometric Technology and Ethics: Beyond Security Applications," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 433-450, December.
    21. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Sahut, Jean Michel & Guesmi, Khaled, 2021. "Is Bitcoin rooted in confidence? – Unraveling the determinants of globalized digital currencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    22. Golzar, Farzin & Silveira, Semida, 2021. "Impact of wastewater heat recovery in buildings on the performance of centralized energy recovery – A case study of Stockholm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    23. Bhatt, Priyanka C. & Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Drave, Vinayak A. & Lu, Tzu-Chuen & Kumar, Vimal, 2023. "Patent analysis based technology innovation assessment with the lens of disruptive innovation theory: A case of blockchain technological trajectories," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    24. Van Auken, Howard E. & Fotouhi Ardakani, Mohammad & Carraher, Shawn & Khojasteh Avorgani, Razieh, 2021. "Innovation among entrepreneurial SMEs during the COVID-19 crisis in Iran," Small Business International Review, Asociación Española de Contabilidad y Administración de Empresas - AECA, vol. 5(2), pages 395-395, September.
    25. Camiña, Ester & Díaz-Chao, Ángel & Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2020. "Automation technologies: Long-term effects for Spanish industrial firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    2. Focacci, Chiara Natalie & Perez, Carlota, 2022. "The importance of education and training policies in supporting technological revolutions: A comparative and historical analysis of UK, US, Germany, and Sweden (1830–1970)," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Hart, David M., 2009. "Accounting for change in national systems of innovation: A friendly critique based on the U.S. case," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 647-654, May.
    4. Huo, Jingjing, 2015. "How Nations Innovate: The Political Economy of Technological Innovation in Affluent Capitalist Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198735847, Decembrie.
    5. Marie Carpenter & William Lazonick, 2023. "The Pursuit of Shareholder Value: Cisco's Transformation from Innovation to Financialization," Working Papers Series inetwp202, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    6. Jie Wu & Steven Si & Haifeng Yan, 2022. "Reducing poverty through the shared economy: creating inclusive entrepreneurship around institutional voids in China," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 155-183, April.
    7. Коршунов И. А. & Гапонова О. С., 2017. "Непрерывное Образование Взрослых В Контексте Экономического Развития И Качества Государственного Управления," Вопросы образования // Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 4, pages 36-59.
    8. Ziad Rotaba & Catherine Beaudry, 2012. "How Do High, Medium, And Low Tech Firms Innovate? A System Of Innovation (Si) Approach," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(05), pages 1-23.
    9. Ilana Shpaizman, 2020. "The end–means nexus and policy conversion: evidence from two cases in Israeli immigrant integration policy," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 53(4), pages 713-733, December.
    10. Grande, Rafael & Muñoz de Bustillo, Rafael & Fernández Macías, Enrique & Antón, José Ignacio, 2020. "Innovation and job quality. A firm-level exploration," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 130-142.
    11. Paul Ryan & Howard Gospel & Paul Lewis, 2007. "Large Employers and Apprenticeship Training in Britain," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 127-153, March.
    12. Anke Hassel, 2014. "Adjustments in the Eurozone: Varieties of Capitalism and the Crisis in Southern Europe," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 6, London School of Economics / European Institute.
    13. William Lazonick, 2018. "Comments on Gary Pisano: “toward a prescriptive theory of dynamic capabilities”," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1165-1174.
    14. Eriksson, Martin & Pettersson, Thomas, 2012. "Adapting to liberalization: government procurement of interregional passenger transports in Sweden, 1989–2008," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 182-188.
    15. Malte Luebker, 2019. "Can the Structure of Inequality Explain Fiscal Redistribution? Revisiting the Social Affinity Hypothesis," LIS Working papers 762, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    16. Hanno JENTZSCH, 2017. "Tracing the Local Origins of Farmland Policies in Japan—Local-National Policy Transfers and Endogenous Institutional Change," Social Science Japan Journal, University of Tokyo and Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 243-260.
    17. Yannis Papadopoulos, 2018. "How does knowledge circulate in a regulatory network? Observing a European Platform of Regulatory Authorities meeting," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 431-450, December.
    18. Victoria Johnson & Walter W. Powell, 2015. "Poisedness and Propagation: Organizational Emergence and the Transformation of Civic Order in 19th-Century New York City," NBER Working Papers 21011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Clifford Bekar & Kenneth Carlaw & Richard Lipsey, 2018. "General purpose technologies in theory, application and controversy: a review," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1005-1033, December.
    20. Funk, Jeffery, 2009. "Components, systems and discontinuities: The case of magnetic recording and playback equipment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1192-1202, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:129:y:2018:i:c:p:261-274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.