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A mental model of factors associated with subjective life expectancy

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  • Griffin, Barbara
  • Loh, Vanessa
  • Hesketh, Beryl

Abstract

The objective was to develop and test a framework based on a biopsychosocial model that can be used to identify factors associated with subjective (self-estimated) life expectancy (SLE). SLE predicts important work and retirement decisions so a better understanding of the factors that contribute to an individual's thoughts about their likely age at death is essential for late-career and financial planning and for developing interventions aimed at addressing inappropriate estimates. This is a sub-study of the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort. Survey data were collected at two time points (3 years apart) from 2579 participants aged over 55 years. Correlations and regression analyses tested the relationship of SLE with biomedical/genetic factors (age, health diagnoses, parental longevity), socioeconomic factors (income, education) health behaviors (exercise, smoking, alcohol use, diet), and psychosocial factors (optimism, distress, social connectedness). Variables within each set of factors except the socioeconomic set were significantly related to SLE. Healthy lifestyle behaviors significantly moderated the effect of parental longevity. The findings indicate that individuals construct an understanding of their personal life expectancy based on similar factors that predict actual life expectancy, but not all mortality risk factors appear to be weighted realistically. The findings imply that, at least to some extent, SLE is not a stable construct and might be amenable to intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Griffin, Barbara & Loh, Vanessa & Hesketh, Beryl, 2013. "A mental model of factors associated with subjective life expectancy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 79-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:82:y:2013:i:c:p:79-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.01.026
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    2. Lindsay C Kobayashi & Rebecca J Beeken & Susanne F Meisel, 2017. "Biopsychosocial predictors of perceived life expectancy in a national sample of older men and women," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, December.
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    7. Dong Chen & Dennis Petrie & Kam Tang & Dongjie Wu, 2020. "Private Information and Misinformation in Subjective Life Expectancy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 1061-1083, December.
    8. Hanna Solinge & Kène Henkens, 2018. "Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10-year panel study among older workers," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 155-164, June.
    9. Bell, D.N.F. & Comerford, D.A. & Douglas, E., 2020. "How do subjective life expectancies compare with mortality tables? Similarities and differences in three national samples," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    10. Apostolos Papachristos & Georgia Verropoulou & George Ploubidis & Cleon Tsimbos, 2020. "Factors incorporated into future survival estimation among Europeans," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(2), pages 15-56.
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