IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v64y2023ics0275531922001908.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Abnormal trading volume, news and market efficiency: Evidence from the Jamaica Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Wright, Calvin
  • Swidler, Steve

Abstract

This paper investigates market efficiency of the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE). Together, weak and semi-strong form efficiency claim that historical and newly released public information do not predict future stock price movement. We test both forms of market efficiency by analyzing stock price behavior during times of abnormal trading volume and around the release dates of earnings information. Abnormal trading volume may be driven by liquidity demand or reflect new or private information flow to the market. Using JSE data over the period 2000 to 2021, we find price dynamics consistent with price pressure as firms experience negative abnormal returns on the day of abnormal trading activity but offsetting positive abnormal stock returns on the following day. Further findings show post earnings announcement drift on the JSE. Taken as a whole, the evidence suggests violations of market efficiency and has implications for capital allocation in this emerging market.

Suggested Citation

  • Wright, Calvin & Swidler, Steve, 2023. "Abnormal trading volume, news and market efficiency: Evidence from the Jamaica Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s0275531922001908
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531922001908
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101804?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Chuhan, Punam & DEC, 1994. "Are institutional investors an important source of portfolio investment in emerging markets?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1243, The World Bank.
    3. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Hearn, Bruce, 2021. "Institutional determinants of bid–ask spreads in Caribbean offshore stock exchanges," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Ball, Ray & Bartov, Eli, 1996. "How naive is the stock market's use of earnings information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 319-337, June.
    6. Meulbroek, Lisa K, 1992. "An Empirical Analysis of Illegal Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1661-1699, December.
    7. repec:eme:sef000:sef-09-2019-0352 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ramazan GenÁay & Giuseppe Ballocchi & Michel Dacorogna & Richard Olsen & Olivier Pictet, 2002. "Real-Time Trading Models and the Statistical Properties of Foreign Exchange Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 463-492, May.
    9. Andrea Frazzini, 2006. "The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 2017-2046, August.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    11. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-829, September.
    12. Nitish Ranjan Sinha, 2016. "Underreaction to News in the US Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-46, June.
    13. Li Cai & Jian Du, 2018. "Excess returns to buying low options‐volume stocks and selling high options‐volume stocks: Information or characteristics?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1487-1513, December.
    14. Ligot, Stephanie & Gillet, Roland & Veryzhenko, Iryna, 2021. "Intraday volatility smile: Effects of fragmentation and high frequency trading on price efficiency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Bruce Hearn & Alexander Mohr & Muhammad Khawar & Jaskaran Kaur, 2022. "Nonexecutive director influence on informational asymmetries in offshore financial centres," Chapters, in: Oliver Marnet (ed.), Research Handbook on Corporate Board Decision-Making, chapter 14, pages 306-334, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    18. Dimitrios Panagiotou & Alkistis Tseriki, 2020. "Assessing the relationship between closing prices and trading volume in the US livestock futures markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(3), pages 413-428, May.
    19. Stephanie Ligot & Roland Gillet & Iryna Veryzhenko, 2021. "Intraday volatility smile: Effects of fragmentation and high frequency trading on price efficiency," Post-Print hal-03905487, HAL.
    20. Powell, Owen & Shestakova, Natalia, 2016. "Experimental asset markets: A survey of recent developments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 14-22.
    21. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    22. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    23. Epps, Thomas W, 1975. "Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 586-597, September.
    24. Westerfield, Randolph, 1977. "The Distribution of Common Stock Price Changes: An Application of Transactions Time and Subordinated Stochastic Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 743-765, December.
    25. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-46, March.
    26. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan H. Mingelgrin, 2001. "The High‐Volume Return Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 877-919, June.
    27. Stefan Palan, 2013. "A Review Of Bubbles And Crashes In Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 570-588, July.
    28. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    29. Epps, Thomas W., 1977. "Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 141-146, March.
    30. Pritamani, Mahesh & Singal, Vijay, 2001. "Return predictability following large price changes and information releases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 631-656, April.
    31. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    32. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-321, March.
    33. Gooptu, Sudarshan, 1993. "Portfolio investment flows to emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1117, The World Bank.
    34. Jung-Chu Lin, 2013. "Volume-Return Relationship in ETF Markets: A Reexamination of the Costly Short-Sale Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(6), pages 1-12.
    35. Hearn, Bruce, 2022. "The Determinants of Foreign Multinational Enterprise Firms' Board Governance in Caribbean Offshore Island Economies," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(4).
    36. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    37. Barry A.N. Bloom & Leonard A. Jackson, 2016. "Abnormal Stock Returns and Volume Activity Surrounding Lodging Firms' CEO Transition Announcements," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 141-161, February.
    38. Cathy W. S. Chen & Mike K. P. So & Thomas C. Chiang, 2016. "Evidence of Stock Returns and Abnormal Trading Volume: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 96-124, March.
    39. Rogalski, Richard J, 1978. "The Dependence of Prices and Volume," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 268-274, May.
    40. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    41. Emanuele Bajo, 2010. "The Information Content of Abnormal Trading Volume," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7‐8), pages 950-978, July.
    42. Lee A. Smales, 2016. "Time-varying relationship of news sentiment, implied volatility and stock returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4942-4960, November.
    43. Barber, Brad M. & De George, Emmanuel T. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2013. "The earnings announcement premium around the globe," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 118-138.
    44. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Gebka, Bartosz, 2014. "Does high frequency trading affect technical analysis and market efficiency? And if so, how?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 131-157.
    45. Fishe, Raymond P. H. & Robe, Michel A., 2004. "The impact of illegal insider trading in dealer and specialist markets: evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 461-488, March.
    46. Jarrell, Gregg A & Poulsen, Annette B, 1989. "Stock Trading before the Announcement of Tender Offers: Insider Trading or Market Anticipation?," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 225-248, Fall.
    47. Owen Lamont & Andrea Frazzini, 2007. "The Earnings Announcement Premium and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 13090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bahrawar Said & Shafiq Ur Rehman & Muhammad Wajid Raza, 2022. "Three Major Crises and Asian Emerging Market Informational Efficiency: A Case of Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-13, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ling-Yun He & Sheng Yang & Wen-Si Xie & Zhi-Hong Han, 2014. "Contemporaneous and Asymmetric Properties in the Price-Volume Relationships in China's Agricultural Futures Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(S1), pages 148-166.
    2. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "Psychological Aspects of Stock Returns Accompanied by High Trading Volumes," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17.
    3. Emanuele Bajo, 2010. "The Information Content of Abnormal Trading Volume," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7‐8), pages 950-978, July.
    4. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "The Effect Of Trading Volumes On Stock Returns Following Large Price Moves," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 85-116, January –.
    5. Moosa, Imad A. & Al-Loughani, Nabeel E., 1995. "Testing the price-volume relation in emerging Asian stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 407-422.
    6. Agapova, Anna & Kaprielyan, Margarita, 2020. "Stock volatility and trading," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Emanuele Bajo, 2010. "The Information Content of Abnormal Trading Volume," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7‐8), pages 950-978, July.
    8. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2017. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects In Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 23883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Figlioli, Bruno & Lemes, Sirlei & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2020. "In search for good news: The relationship between accounting information, bounded rationality and hard-to-value stocks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    11. Anirut Pisedtasalasai & Abeyratna Gunasekarage, 2007. "Causal and Dynamic Relationships among Stock Returns, Return Volatility and Trading Volume: Evidence from Emerging markets in South-East Asia," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 277-297, December.
    12. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021.
    13. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    14. Rodriguez, E. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2021. "Time-varying cross-correlation between trading volume and returns in US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    15. Wei-Xing Zhou, 2012. "Universal price impact functions of individual trades in an order-driven market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 1253-1263, June.
    16. Sarika Mahajan & Balwinder Singh, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Price-Volume Relationship in Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, July.
    17. Sinha, Pankaj & Agnihotri, Shalini, 2014. "Investigating impact of volatility persistence, market asymmetry and information inflow on volatility of stock indices using bivariate GJR-GARCH," MPRA Paper 58303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    19. Michael Smirlock & Laura Starks, 1985. "A Further Examination Of Stock Price Changes And Transaction Volume," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(3), pages 217-226, September.
    20. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s0275531922001908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.