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Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns

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  • Graham, Michael
  • Peltomäki, Jarkko
  • Piljak, Vanja

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether global economic activity, measured by the maritime index and commodity index, is a distinct common factor in explaining equity returns in emerging markets. We document two important features of global equity markets that show that emerging market equities are a segregated part of the global stock market. First, our results show that increases in global economic activity are associated with higher emerging market equity returns. Second, companies in developed markets that have a significant exposure in emerging markets have incremental exposure to commodity returns. By allocating more capital to emerging market equities, an investor increases portfolio exposure to changes in global economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham, Michael & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Piljak, Vanja, 2016. "Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 424-435.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:424-435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.09.030
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    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Jitendra & Ahmad, Wasim & Mishra, Anil, 2019. "Coherence, connectedness and dynamic hedging effectiveness between emerging markets equities and commodity index funds," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 441-460.
    2. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2017. "Interest rate dynamic effect on stock returns and central bank transparency: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 951-962.
    3. Lin, Arthur J. & Chang, Hai Yen & Hsiao, Jung Lieh, 2019. "Does the Baltic Dry Index drive volatility spillovers in the commodities, currency, or stock markets?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 265-283.
    4. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 40-46.
    5. Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & Masnun Mahi & Tapan Sarker & Md. Ruhul Amin, 2021. "Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Arunava Bandyopadhyay & Prabina Rajib, 2023. "The asymmetric relationship between Baltic Dry Index and commodity spot prices: evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 217-237, June.
    7. Opperman, Pieter & Adjasi, Charles Komla Delali, 2017. "The determinants of private capital flow volatility in Sub-Saharan African countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 312-320.
    8. Pao-Lan Kuo & Chien-Liang Chiu & Chan-Sheng Chen & Mei-Chih Wang, 2020. "The Dynamic Relationships between the Baltic Dry Index and the BRICS Stock Markets: A Wavelet Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(3), pages 340-351, March.
    9. Darmawan, Indra & Siregar, Hermanto & Hakim, Dedi B. & Manurung, Adler H., 2021. "Crude Oil Price Movement and Stock Market Trading Activity: Evidence from Indonesia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(1), pages 25-46.
    10. Ahmad, Wasim & Sharma, Sumit Kumar, 2018. "Testing output gap and economic uncertainty as an explicator of stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 293-306.
    11. Gong, Yuting & Li, Kevin X. & Chen, Shu-Ling & Shi, Wenming, 2020. "Contagion risk between the shipping freight and stock markets: Evidence from the recent US-China trade war," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "COVID-19 effects on the S&P 500 index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 7-13, January.
    13. Çiðdem Kurt Cihangir, 2018. "Küresel Risk Algýsýnýn Küresel Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10.
    14. Peltomäki, Jarkko & Graham, Michael & Hasselgren, Anton, 2018. "Investor attention to market categories and market volatility: The case of emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 532-546.
    15. de Boyrie Maria E. & Pavlova Ivelina, 2018. "Equities and Commodities Comovements: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 1-14, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Baltic Dry Index; Commodity factors; Emerging stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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