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Comparison of four heuristic regression techniques in solar radiation modeling: Kriging method vs RSM, MARS and M5 model tree

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  • Keshtegar, Behrooz
  • Mert, Cihan
  • Kisi, Ozgur

Abstract

In this study, four different heuristic regression methods including Kriging, response surface method (RSM), multivariate adaptive regression (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) have been investigated for accurate estimating of solar radiation with different input data. Monthly solar radiation (SR) from Adana and Antakya stations, which are located in Eastern Mediterranean Region of Turkey is estimated based on the input data of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), sunshine hours (Hs), wind speed (Ws), and relative humidity (RH). In Adana station, the best MARS model provided slightly better accuracy than the Kriging, RSM and M5Tree while the Kriging was found to be the better than the MARS, RSM and M5Tree in Antakya station. The predictions of M5Tree model are shown inaccurate results for both maximum errors and minimum agreement compared to another models. The effect of periodicity input is examined to obtain the accurate predictions of solar radiation for these stations based on the four heuristic –based modeling Kriging, MARS, RSM, M5Tree approaches. Periodicity input data improved the root mean square errors of the best MARS, RSM, M5Tree and Kriging models as 34%, 37%, 46% and 39% for Adana station and by 51%, 47%, 38% and 49% for Antakya station, respectively. The periodic Kriging models performed superior to the periodic MARS, RSM and M5Tree models.

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  • Keshtegar, Behrooz & Mert, Cihan & Kisi, Ozgur, 2018. "Comparison of four heuristic regression techniques in solar radiation modeling: Kriging method vs RSM, MARS and M5 model tree," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 330-341.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:81:y:2018:i:p1:p:330-341
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.07.054
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    7. Hai Tao & Isa Ebtehaj & Hossein Bonakdari & Salim Heddam & Cyril Voyant & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Ravinesh Deo & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2019. "Designing a New Data Intelligence Model for Global Solar Radiation Prediction: Application of Multivariate Modeling Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, April.
    8. Yaohui Li & Junjun Shi & Zhifeng Yin & Jingfang Shen & Yizhong Wu & Shuting Wang, 2021. "An Improved High-Dimensional Kriging Surrogate Modeling Method through Principal Component Dimension Reduction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Duan, Qiuhua & Feng, Yanxiao & Wang, Julian, 2021. "Clustering of visible and infrared solar irradiance for solar architecture design and analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 668-677.
    10. Qin, Wenmin & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Xia, Xiangao & Hu, Bo & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Comparison of deterministic and data-driven models for solar radiation estimation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 579-594.
    11. Junjun Shi & Jingfang Shen & Yaohui Li, 2021. "High-Precision Kriging Modeling Method Based on Hybrid Sampling Criteria," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, March.
    12. Feng, Yu & Hao, Weiping & Li, Haoru & Cui, Ningbo & Gong, Daozhi & Gao, Lili, 2020. "Machine learning models to quantify and map daily global solar radiation and photovoltaic power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Feng, Lan & Lin, Aiwen & Wang, Lunche & Qin, Wenmin & Gong, Wei, 2018. "Evaluation of sunshine-based models for predicting diffuse solar radiation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 168-182.
    14. Koo, Choongwan & Li, Wenzhuo & Cha, Seung Hyun & Zhang, Shaojie, 2019. "A novel estimation approach for the solar radiation potential with its complex spatial pattern via machine-learning techniques," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 575-592.
    15. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Salim Heddam & Zaher Mundher Yaseen & Shamsuddin Shahid & Ozgur Kisi & Binquan Li, 2020. "Prediction of Potential Evapotranspiration Using Temperature-Based Heuristic Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Kim, Sehyun & Lee, Hyunjae & Kim, Heejin & Jang, Dong-Hwan & Kim, Hyun-Jin & Hur, Jin & Cho, Yoon-Sung & Hur, Kyeon, 2018. "Improvement in policy and proactive interconnection procedure for renewable energy expansion in South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 150-162.

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    Keywords

    Solar radiation; Kriging; RSM; MARS; M5 model tree; Modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M5 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics

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