IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v167y2022ics1364032122006633.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hydrogen and the decarbonization of the energy system in europe in 2050: A detailed model-based analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Seck, Gondia S.
  • Hache, Emmanuel
  • Sabathier, Jerome
  • Guedes, Fernanda
  • Reigstad, Gunhild A.
  • Straus, Julian
  • Wolfgang, Ove
  • Ouassou, Jabir A.
  • Askeland, Magnus
  • Hjorth, Ida
  • Skjelbred, Hans I.
  • Andersson, Leif E.
  • Douguet, Sebastien
  • Villavicencio, Manuel
  • Trüby, Johannes
  • Brauer, Johannes
  • Cabot, Clement

Abstract

The paper aims to address the potential of low-carbon and renewable hydrogen in decarbonizing the European energy system; specifically, reducing emissions by 55% in 2030 compared to 1990, and targeting net-zero emissions by 2050. The methodology relies on a cost-optimization modelling approach using three models complementarily: a detailed European TIMES-type model (MIRET-EU); an aggregated model for the European energy system, allowing endogenous cost reductions based on technology deployment in a dynamic programming formulation for investment strategies (Integrate Europe); and a dedicated model for assessing hydrogen import options for Europe (HyPE). Two policy-relevant scenarios have been developed: Technology Diversification (TD) and Renewable Push (RP). Both lead to climate neutrality in Europe in 2050 but the RP scenario differs by setting new reinforced targets for renewable technologies in Europe. Results show that hydrogen production would increase sharply in the coming decades, exceeding 30 million tons (Mt) by 2030 and more than 100 Mt by 2050 in both scenarios. Polyvalence of hydrogen in decarbonizing the European energy system for certain hard-to-abate energy uses in transport and industry is also observed. European hydrogen production relies on a diverse mix including both renewable and low-carbon technologies. It is complemented by hydrogen imports from neighboring regions, that represent between 10 and 15% of total demand in 2050. Access to existing cross-border pipelines is a critical advantage compared to maritime transport. Notably, there are considerable cost reductions due to technology deployment for solar power and hydrogen production by electrolyzers.

Suggested Citation

  • Seck, Gondia S. & Hache, Emmanuel & Sabathier, Jerome & Guedes, Fernanda & Reigstad, Gunhild A. & Straus, Julian & Wolfgang, Ove & Ouassou, Jabir A. & Askeland, Magnus & Hjorth, Ida & Skjelbred, Hans , 2022. "Hydrogen and the decarbonization of the energy system in europe in 2050: A detailed model-based analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:167:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122006633
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112779
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032122006633
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112779?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jabir Ali Ouassou & Julian Straus & Marte Fodstad & Gunhild Reigstad & Ove Wolfgang, 2021. "Applying Endogenous Learning Models in Energy System Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Gondia Sokhna Seck & Emmanuel Hache & Clement Bonnet & Marine Simoën & Samuel Carcanague, 2020. "Copper at the crossroads : Assessment of the interactions between low-carbon energy transition and supply limitations," Post-Print hal-03118509, HAL.
    3. Brändle, Gregor & Schönfisch, Max & Schulte, Simon, 2021. "Estimating long-term global supply costs for low-carbon hydrogen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    4. Chiong, Meng-Choung & Kang, Hooi-Siang & Shaharuddin, Nik Mohd Ridzuan & Mat, Shabudin & Quen, Lee Kee & Ten, Ki-Hong & Ong, Muk Chen, 2021. "Challenges and opportunities of marine propulsion with alternative fuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Guannan He & Dharik S. Mallapragada & Abhishek Bose & Clara F. Heuberger & Emre Genc{c}er, 2021. "Sector coupling via hydrogen to lower the cost of energy system decarbonization," Papers 2103.03442, arXiv.org.
    6. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    7. Timmerberg, Sebastian & Kaltschmitt, Martin, 2019. "Hydrogen from renewables: Supply from North Africa to Central Europe as blend in existing pipelines – Potentials and costs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 795-809.
    8. Mathijs Harmsen & Elmar Kriegler & Detlef van Vuuren & Kaj-Ivar van Der Wijst & Gunnar Luderer & Ryna Cui & Olivier Dessens & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Jennifer Morris & Florian Fosse & Di, 2021. "Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution," Post-Print hal-03216627, HAL.
    9. Jabir Ali Ouassou & Julian Straus & Marte Fodstad & Gunhild Reigstad & Ove Wolfgang, 2021. "Applying endogenous learning models in energy system optimization," Papers 2106.06373, arXiv.org.
    10. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    11. Brändle, Gregor & Schönfisch, Max & Schulte, Simon, 2020. "Estimating Long-Term Global Supply Costs for Low-Carbon Hydrogen," EWI Working Papers 2020-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 10 Aug 2021.
    12. van der Zwaan, Bob & Lamboo, Sam & Dalla Longa, Francesco, 2021. "Timmermans’ dream: An electricity and hydrogen partnership between Europe and North Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Davis, Steven J & Lewis, Nathan S. & Shaner, Matthew & Aggarwal, Sonia & Arent, Doug & Azevedo, Inês & Benson, Sally & Bradley, Thomas & Brouwer, Jack & Chiang, Yet-Ming & Clack, Christopher T.M. & Co, 2018. "Net-Zero Emissions Energy Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7qv6q35r, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    14. Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Hache, Emmanuel & Barnet, Charlène, 2022. "Potential bottleneck in the energy transition: The case of cobalt in an accelerating electro-mobility world," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. James Glynn & Maurizio Gargiulo & Alessandro Chiodi & Paul Deane & Fionn Rogan & Brian Ó Gallachóir, 2019. "Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 30-42, January.
    16. Bakken, Bjorn H. & Skjelbred, Hans I. & Wolfgang, Ove, 2007. "eTransport: Investment planning in energy supply systems with multiple energy carriers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1676-1689.
    17. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential of Power-to-Methane in the EU energy transition to a low carbon system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 323-340.
    18. Paltsev, Sergey & Morris, Jennifer & Kheshgi, Haroon & Herzog, Howard, 2021. "Hard-to-Abate Sectors: The role of industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) in emission mitigation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    19. Yue, Xiufeng & Deane, J.P. & O'Gallachoir, Brian & Rogan, Fionn, 2020. "Identifying decarbonisation opportunities using marginal abatement cost curves and energy system scenario ensembles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    20. Daniel Huppmann & Joeri Rogelj & Elmar Kriegler & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi, 2018. "A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1027-1030, December.
    21. William D. Nordhaus, 2014. "The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    22. Muhammad Aziz & Agung Tri Wijayanta & Asep Bayu Dani Nandiyanto, 2020. "Ammonia as Effective Hydrogen Storage: A Review on Production, Storage and Utilization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-25, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cantú, Victor H. & Ponsich, Antonin & Azzaro-Pantel, Catherine & Carrera, Eduardo, 2023. "Capturing spatial, time-wise and technological detail in hydrogen supply chains: A bi-level multi-objective optimization approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    2. Friedrich Plank & Johannes Muntschick & Arne Niemann & Michèle Knodt, 2023. "External Hydrogen Relations of the European Union: Framing Processes in the Public Discourse Towards and within Partner Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-17, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quarton, Christopher J. & Samsatli, Sheila, 2020. "The value of hydrogen and carbon capture, storage and utilisation in decarbonising energy: Insights from integrated value chain optimisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    2. Hoarau, Quentin & Lorang, Etienne, 2022. "An assessment of the European regulation on battery recycling for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    3. McDonagh, Shane & Ahmed, Shorif & Desmond, Cian & Murphy, Jerry D, 2020. "Hydrogen from offshore wind: Investor perspective on the profitability of a hybrid system including for curtailment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    4. Schlund, David & Schönfisch, Max, 2021. "Analysing the impact of a renewable hydrogen quota on the European electricity and natural gas markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    5. Tarkowski, R. & Uliasz-Misiak, B., 2022. "Towards underground hydrogen storage: A review of barriers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Schönfisch, Max, 2022. "Charting the Development of a Global Market for Low-Carbon Hydrogen," EWI Working Papers 2022-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    7. Reed, Jeffrey & Dailey, Emily & Shaffer, Brendan & Lane, Blake & Flores, Robert & Fong, Amber & Samuelsen, Scott, 2023. "Potential evolution of the renewable hydrogen sector using California as a reference market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    8. Mathias Mier & Jacqueline Adelowo & Valeriya Azarova, 2022. "Endogenous Technological Change in Power Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 373, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Ikäheimo, Jussi & Weiss, Robert & Kiviluoma, Juha & Pursiheimo, Esa & Lindroos, Tomi J., 2022. "Impact of power-to-gas on the cost and design of the future low-carbon urban energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    10. ElSayed, Mai & Aghahosseini, Arman & Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Analysing the techno-economic impact of e-fuels and e-chemicals production for exports and carbon dioxide removal on the energy system of sunbelt countries – Case of Egypt," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    11. Schreiner, Lena & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Investing in power grid infrastructure as a flexibility option: A DSGE assessment for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    12. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Toktarova, Alla & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Transition towards 100% renewable power and heat supply for energy intensive economies and severe continental climate conditions: Case for Kazakhstan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Fambri, Gabriele & Diaz-Londono, Cesar & Mazza, Andrea & Badami, Marco & Sihvonen, Teemu & Weiss, Robert, 2022. "Techno-economic analysis of Power-to-Gas plants in a gas and electricity distribution network system with high renewable energy penetration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    14. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Barbara Uliasz-Misiak & Joanna Lewandowska-Śmierzchalska & Rafał Matuła & Radosław Tarkowski, 2022. "Prospects for the Implementation of Underground Hydrogen Storage in the EU," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Ploy Achakulwisut & Peter Erickson & Céline Guivarch & Roberto Schaeffer & Elina Brutschin & Steve Pye, 2023. "Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Indre Siksnelyte-Butkiene & Dalia Streimikiene, 2022. "Sustainable Development of Road Transport in the EU: Multi-Criteria Analysis of Countries’ Achievements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-25, November.
    18. Millinger, M. & Reichenberg, L. & Hedenus, F. & Berndes, G. & Zeyen, E. & Brown, T., 2022. "Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    19. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    20. De-León Almaraz, Sofía & Rácz, Viktor & Azzaro-Pantel, Catherine & Szántó, Zoltán Oszkár, 2022. "Multiobjective and social cost-benefit optimisation for a sustainable hydrogen supply chain: Application to Hungary," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:167:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122006633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.