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On the meaning of and relationship between dragon-kings, black swans and related concepts

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  • Glette-Iversen, Ingrid
  • Aven, Terje

Abstract

Different metaphors have been introduced to reflect the occurrence of rare and surprising types of events with extreme impacts, including black swans, grey swans and dragon-kings. Despite considerable research on clarifying the meaning of these concepts, their relationship still remains unclear. The present paper aims to meet this challenge, by reviewing current definitions and interpretations found in the literature and referred to in practice, analysing these definitions and interpretations, and providing a structure for improved understanding of the differences and similarities between the various metaphors. The paper also discusses some of the implications the use of these concepts has for risk management and decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Glette-Iversen, Ingrid & Aven, Terje, 2021. "On the meaning of and relationship between dragon-kings, black swans and related concepts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:211:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021001678
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107625
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Shi & Huang, Fu-Wei & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2023. "Green technology choices under the cap-and-trade mechanism with insurer green finance in a dragon-king environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Li, Xuelian & Chen, Lingzhi & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2023. "Cap-and-trade mechanisms, green technology investment, and shadow insurance in a black swan environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Wang, Yangpeng & Li, Shuxiang & Lee, Kangkuen & Tam, Hwayaw & Qu, Yuanju & Huang, Jingyin & Chu, Xianghua, 2023. "Accident risk tensor-specific covariant model for railway accident risk assessment and prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    4. Chen, Shi & Huang, Fu-Wei & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2022. "Life insurance policyholder protection, government green subsidy, and cap-and-trade transactions in a black swan environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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