Cost benefits of postponing time-based maintenance under lifetime distribution uncertainty

We consider the problem of scheduling time-based preventive maintenance under uncertainty in the lifetime distribution of a unit, with the understanding that every time a maintenance action is carried out, additional information on the lifetime distribution becomes available. Under such circumstances, typically either point estimates for the unknown parameters are used, or expected costs are minimized taking the uncertainty in the parameters into account. Both approaches, however, ignore that the uncertainty is reduced much faster if preventive maintenance actions are postponed. Although this initially leads to higher costs due to a higher risk of breakdowns, the obtained additional information can be exploited thereafter as it enables better maintenance decisions going forward. We assess the long-term benefits of initially postponing preventive maintenance, and perform a numerical study to identify under what circumstances these benefits are largest. This study is the first to recognize that the choice of a maintenance strategy influences the information that becomes available, and aims to initiate follow-up research in the area of maintenance planning.