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Target-oriented utility theory for modeling the deterrent effects of counterterrorism

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  • Bier, Vicki M.
  • Kosanoglu, Fuat

Abstract

Optimal resource allocation in security has been a significant challenge for critical infrastructure protection. Numerous studies use game theory as the method of choice, because of the fact that an attacker can often observe the defender’s investment in security and adapt his choice of strategies accordingly. However, most of these models do not explicitly consider deterrence, with the result that they may lead to wasted resources if less investment would be sufficient to deter an attack. In this paper, we assume that the defender is uncertain about the level of defensive investment that would deter an attack, and use the target-oriented utility to optimize the level of defensive investment, taking into account the probability of deterrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Bier, Vicki M. & Kosanoglu, Fuat, 2015. "Target-oriented utility theory for modeling the deterrent effects of counterterrorism," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 35-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:136:y:2015:i:c:p:35-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.11.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Mathews, Timothy & Paul, Jomon A., 2022. "Natural disasters and their impact on cooperation against a common enemy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1417-1428.
    4. Wu, Di & Xiao, Hui & Peng, Rui, 2018. "Object defense with preventive strike and false targets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 76-80.
    5. Kosanoglu, Fuat & Bier, Vicki M., 2020. "Target-oriented utility for interdiction of transportation networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Song, Cen & Zhuang, Jun, 2017. "N-stage security screening strategies in the face of strategic applicants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 292-301.
    7. Ye, Zhi-Sheng & Peng, Rui & Wang, Wenbin, 2017. "Defense and attack of performance-sharing common bus systemsAuthor-Name: Zhai, Qingqing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 962-975.

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