IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/recore/v122y2017icp219-226.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Econometric modeling of recycled copper supply

Author

Listed:
  • Fu, Xinkai
  • Ueland, Stian M.
  • Olivetti, Elsa

Abstract

The supply of recycled material depends on historic consumption, i.e. what constitutes scrap available today originates from previously made products. Analytical tools, such as materials flow analysis, use this observation to estimate scrap metal flows. The supply of recycled metal also depends on changing economic conditions, e.g. metal consumption rates correlate with changes in gross domestic product. We use an autoregressive distributed lag approach to model the supply of recycled copper as a complementary approach to material flow analysis. We find that both industrial activity and world GDP correlate with total scrap supply, with limited dependence on copper price. We also develop independent models for direct remelt (higher quality) and refined (lower quality) scrap. A 1% increase in industrial production leads to a 2.1% increase in higher quality scrap quantity, while a similar increase in world GDP leads to a 1.4% increase in lower quality scrap. Based on this model dependence, we suggest that a recycling policy aimed at increasing recycling through the use of subsidies, taxes or price incentives should be directed towards the low-end segment of the scrap market and there it may still only have limited impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Fu, Xinkai & Ueland, Stian M. & Olivetti, Elsa, 2017. "Econometric modeling of recycled copper supply," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 219-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:122:y:2017:i:c:p:219-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.02.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344917300605
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.02.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McMillan, Colin A. & Moore, Michael R. & Keoleian, Gregory A. & Bulkley, Jonathan W., 2010. "Quantifying U.S. aluminum in-use stocks and their relationship with economic output," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2606-2613, October.
    2. Angus, A. & Casado, M. Rivas & Fitzsimons, D., 2012. "Exploring the usefulness of a simple linear regression model for understanding price movements of selected recycled materials in the UK," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 10-19.
    3. Northey, S. & Mohr, S. & Mudd, G.M. & Weng, Z. & Giurco, D., 2014. "Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 190-201.
    4. Xiarchos, Irene M. & Fletcher, Jerald J., 2009. "Price and volatility transmission between primary and scrap metal markets," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 664-673.
    5. Mansikkasalo, Anna & Lundmark, Robert & Söderholm, Patrik, 2014. "Market behavior and policy in the recycled paper industry: A critical survey of price elasticity research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 17-29.
    6. Graedel, T. E. & Bertram, M. & Fuse, K. & Gordon, R. B. & Lifset, R. & Rechberger, H. & Spatari, S., 2002. "The contemporary European copper cycle: The characterization of technological copper cycles," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 9-26, August.
    7. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
    8. Robert M. Solow, 1974. "The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 12, pages 257-276, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. John Baffes & Cristina Savescu, 2014. "Monetary conditions and metal prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 447-452, May.
    10. Söderholm, Patrik & Tilton, John E., 2012. "Material efficiency: An economic perspective," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 75-82.
    11. Ruth, Matthias, 1995. "Thermodynamic constraints on optimal depletion of copper and aluminum in the United States: a dynamic model of substitution and technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 197-213, December.
    12. Elshkaki, Ayman & van der Voet, Ester & Timmermans, Veerle & Van Holderbeke, Mirja, 2005. "Dynamic stock modelling: A method for the identification and estimation of future waste streams and emissions based on past production and product stock characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1353-1363.
    13. Gsodam, Petra & Lassnig, Melanie & Kreuzeder, Andreas & Mrotzek, Maximilian, 2014. "The Austrian silver cycle: A material flow analysis," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 76-84.
    14. Söderholm, Patrik, 2011. "Taxing virgin natural resources: Lessons from aggregates taxation in Europe," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 55(11), pages 911-922.
    15. Kinnaman, Thomas C., 2016. "Understanding the Economics of Waste: Drivers, Policies, and External Costs," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 8(3-4), pages 281-320, June.
    16. Göran Finnveden & Tomas Ekvall & Yevgeniya Arushanyan & Mattias Bisaillon & Greger Henriksson & Ulrika Gunnarsson Östling & Maria Ljunggren Söderman & Jenny Sahlin & Åsa Stenmarck & Johan Sundberg & J, 2013. "Policy Instruments towards a Sustainable Waste Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-41, February.
    17. Gomez, Fernando & Guzman, Juan Ignacio & Tilton, John E., 2007. "Copper recycling and scrap availability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 183-190, December.
    18. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Cycles in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the frequency domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 138-148, June.
    19. Rechberger, H. & Graedel, T. E., 2002. "The contemporary European copper cycle: statistical entropy analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 59-72, August.
    20. Franklin M. Fisher & Paul H. Cootner & Martin N. Baily, 1972. "An Econometric Model of the World Copper Industry," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 3(2), pages 568-609, Autumn.
    21. Wei‐Qiang Chen, 2013. "Recycling Rates of Aluminum in the United States," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 17(6), pages 926-938, December.
    22. Blomberg, Jerry & Söderholm, Patrik, 2009. "The economics of secondary aluminium supply: An econometric analysis based on European data," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 455-463.
    23. Claudia R. Binder & T. E. Graedel & Barbara Reck, 2006. "Explanatory Variables for per Capita Stocks and Flows of Copper and Zinc," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 10(1‐2), pages 111-132, January.
    24. Graedel, T. E., 2002. "The contemporary European copper cycle: introduction," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 5-7, August.
    25. Bertram, M. & Graedel, T. E. & Rechberger, H. & Spatari, S., 2002. "The contemporary European copper cycle: waste management subsystem," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 43-57, August.
    26. Wübbeke, Jost & Heroth, Timo, 2014. "Challenges and political solutions for steel recycling in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-7.
    27. Spatari, S. & Bertram, M. & Fuse, K. & Graedel, T. E. & Rechberger, H., 2002. "The contemporary European copper cycle: 1 year stocks and flows," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 27-42, August.
    28. Hilary A. Sigman, 1995. "A Comparison of Public Policies for Lead Recycling," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(3), pages 452-478, Autumn.
    29. Gleich, Benedikt & Achzet, Benjamin & Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 350-362.
    30. Wang, Peng & Jiang, Zeyi & Geng, Xinyi & Hao, Shiyu & Zhang, Xinxin, 2014. "Quantification of Chinese steel cycle flow: Historical status and future options," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 191-199.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahrukh Aman & Nadir Munir Hassan & Mohammad Nisar Khattak & Mohamed A. Moustafa & Mahendra Fakhri & Zeeshan Ahmad, 2021. "Impact of Tourist’s Environmental Awareness on Pro-Environmental Behavior with the Mediating Effect of Tourist’s Environmental Concern and Moderating Effect of Tourist’s Environmental Attachment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Rivera, Nilza & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Jara, José Joaquín & Lagos, Gustavo, 2021. "Evaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Karan Bhuwalka & Randolph E. Kirchain & Elsa A. Olivetti & Richard Roth, 2023. "Quantifying the drivers of long‐term prices in materials supply chains," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(1), pages 141-154, February.
    4. Maria Giuseppina Bartolo & Rocco Servidio & Anna Lisa Palermiti & Maria Rosaria Nappa & Angela Costabile, 2023. "Pro-Environmental Behaviors and Well-Being in Adolescence: The Mediating Role of Place Attachment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-12, May.
    5. John Ryter & Xinkai Fu & Karan Bhuwalka & Richard Roth & Elsa Olivetti, 2022. "Assessing recycling, displacement, and environmental impacts using an economics‐informed material system model," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 1010-1024, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Wu & Wang, Minxi & Li, Xin, 2016. "Analysis of copper flows in the United States: 1975–2012," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 67-76.
    2. John Ryter & Xinkai Fu & Karan Bhuwalka & Richard Roth & Elsa Olivetti, 2022. "Assessing recycling, displacement, and environmental impacts using an economics‐informed material system model," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 1010-1024, June.
    3. Taulo, J.L. & Sebitosi, A.B., 2016. "Material and energy flow analysis of the Malawian tea industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1337-1350.
    4. Wang, Minxi & Chen, Wu & Zhou, Yang & Li, Xin, 2017. "Assessment of potential copper scrap in China and policy recommendation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 235-244.
    5. Guo, Tianjiao & Geng, Yong & Song, Xiaoqian & Rui, Xue & Ge, Zewen, 2023. "Tracing magnesium flows in China: A dynamic material flow analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Kapur, Amit, 2006. "The future of the red metal—A developing country perspective from India," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 160-182.
    7. Esther Thiébaud & Lorenz M. Hilty & Mathias Schluep & Heinz W. Böni & Martin Faulstich, 2018. "Where Do Our Resources Go? Indium, Neodymium, and Gold Flows Connected to the Use of Electronic Equipment in Switzerland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Torsten Hummen & Stefanie Hellweg & Ramin Roshandel, 2023. "Optimizing Lifespan of Circular Products: A Generic Dynamic Programming Approach for Energy-Using Products," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-27, September.
    9. Klinglmair, Manfred & Fellner, Johann, 2011. "Historical iron and steel recovery in times of raw material shortage: The case of Austria during World War I," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 179-187.
    10. Truttmann, Nina & Rechberger, Helmut, 2006. "Contribution to resource conservation by reuse of electrical and electronic household appliances," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 249-262.
    11. Geyer, R. & Davis, J. & Ley, J. & He, J. & Clift, R. & Kwan, A. & Sansom, M. & Jackson, T., 2007. "Time-dependent material flow analysis of iron and steel in the UK," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 101-117.
    12. Shaoli Liu & Xin Li & Minxi Wang, 2016. "Analysis of Aluminum Resource Supply Structure and Guarantee Degree in China Based on Sustainable Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Luca Ciacci & Ivano Vassura & Fabrizio Passarini, 2017. "Urban Mines of Copper: Size and Potential for Recycling in the EU," Resources, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Simões, Pedro & Marques, Rui Cunha, 2011. "How does the operational environment affect utility performance? A parametric study on the waste sector," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 695-702.
    15. Tanimoto, Armando H. & Gabarrell Durany, Xavier & Villalba, Gara & Pires, Armando Caldeira, 2010. "Material flow accounting of the copper cycle in Brazil," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 20-28.
    16. Lanzano, T. & Bertram, M. & De Palo, M. & Wagner, C. & Zyla, K. & Graedel, T.E., 2006. "The contemporary European silver cycle," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 27-43.
    17. Harper, E.M. & Bertram, M. & Graedel, T.E., 2006. "The contemporary Latin America and the Caribbean zinc cycle: One year stocks and flows," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 82-100.
    18. Chen, Weiqiang & Shi, Lei & Qian, Yi, 2010. "Substance flow analysis of aluminium in mainland China for 2001, 2004 and 2007: Exploring its initial sources, eventual sinks and the pathways linking them," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 54(9), pages 557-570.
    19. Wang, Minxi & Chen, Wu & Li, Xin, 2015. "Substance flow analysis of copper in production stage in the U.S. from 1974 to 2012," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 105(PA), pages 36-48.
    20. Nadine Rötzer & Mario Schmidt, 2020. "Historical, Current, and Future Energy Demand from Global Copper Production and Its Impact on Climate Change," Resources, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-31, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:122:y:2017:i:c:p:219-226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kai Meng (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/resources-conservation-and-recycling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.