IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v87y2023icp35-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate driven balance sheet effect and capital flows to emerging market economies

Author

Listed:
  • Kadırgan, Can

Abstract

Depreciation of the local currency may deteriorate corporate balance sheets with currency mismatch. This risk might in turn spill over onto creditors, potentially affecting the financial health of banks. In a set of 26 emerging market economies, we find that this channel adversely affects the access of domestic banks to international bank lending when global liquidity tightens. The countercyclical value of US Dollar (USD) over global financial cycles amplifies the valuation effect of USD denominated liabilities. We exploit this variation and find that, when global liquidity tightens, banking sectors in countries whose foreign currency liabilities have a larger share of USD experience more contraction in cross-border bank loans. As the results imply a strong exchange rate driven balance sheet effect, the implementation of foreign currency related macro prudential policies during periods of abundant global liquidity should strengthen the financial stability of the banking system. On the other hand, exchange rate led balance sheet effect does not seem to significantly influence cross-border bank loans to firms with direct access to international bank lending.

Suggested Citation

  • Kadırgan, Can, 2023. "Exchange rate driven balance sheet effect and capital flows to emerging market economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 35-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:87:y:2023:i:c:p:35-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2022.11.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976922001284
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2022.11.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Klapper, Leora F. & Udell, Gregory F., 2001. "The ability of banks to lend to informationally opaque small businesses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2127-2167, December.
    2. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Ongena, Steven, 2012. "“Lending by example”: Direct and indirect effects of foreign banks in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 167-180.
    3. Kohler, Karsten, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics, balance sheet effects, and capital flows. A Minskyan model of emerging market boom-bust cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 270-283.
    4. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles [Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    5. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    6. Michael Chui & Ingo Fender & Vladyslav Sushko, 2014. "Risks related to EME corporate balance sheets: the role of leverage and currency mismatch," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    7. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje van Horen, 2015. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Banking Globalization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 868-918, November.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    9. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    10. Michael Chui & Emese Kuruc & Philip Turner, 2016. "A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets - non-financial companies," BIS Working Papers 550, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Alberto Botta, 2017. "Dutch Disease-cum-financialization booms and external balance cycles in developing countries," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 37(3), pages 459-477.
    12. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "What Makes US Government Bonds Safe Assets?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 519-523, May.
    13. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    14. Hardy, Bryan, 2023. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Stefan Avdjiev & Michael Chui & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Non-financial corporations from emerging market economies and capital flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    16. Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2009. "Dollar appreciation in 2008: safe haven, carry trades, dollar shortage and overhedging," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    17. Boris Hofmann & Nikhil Patel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2022. "Original sin redux: a model-based evaluation," BIS Working Papers 1004, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Nicole Favreau Negront & Luis Méndez Lobos, 2019. "Corporate debt in Latin America and its macroeconomic implications," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 335-362, July.
    19. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    20. Atif Mian, 2006. "Distance Constraints: The Limits of Foreign Lending in Poor Economies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1465-1505, June.
    21. Stefan Avdjiev & Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2020. "International dimensions of EME corporate debt," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    22. Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "The Second Phase of Global Liquidity and Its Impact on Emerging Economies," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Kyuil Chung & Soyoung Kim & Hail Park & Changho Choi & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), Volatile Capital Flows in Korea, chapter 10, pages 247-257, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Berger, Allen N. & Klapper, Leora F. & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Zaidi, Rida, 2008. "Bank ownership type and banking relationships," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 37-62, January.
    24. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373, October.
    25. Hari Venkatesh & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2021. "The resurgence of currency mismatches: Emerging market economies are not out of the woods yet?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 721-742, October.
    26. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje van Horen, 2015. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Banking Globalization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 868-918, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2019. "Will Strangers Help you Enter? The Effect of Foreign Bank Presence on New Firm Entry," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-38, August.
    2. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    3. Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Haas, Adam, 2021. "In search of distress risk in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Faia, Ester & Laffitte, Sebastien & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P., 2019. "Foreign expansion, competition and bank risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 179-199.
    5. Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Levine, Ross & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2015. "How firms use corporate bond markets under financial globalization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 532-551.
    6. Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2020. "Cross-border capital flows and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Allen N. Berger & Tanakorn Makaew & Ms. Rima A Turk, 2018. "Who Pays for Financial Crises? Price and Quantity Rationing of Different Borrowers by Domestic and Foreign Banks," IMF Working Papers 2018/158, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Stijn Claessens, 2017. "Global Banking: Recent Developments and Insights from Research," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1513-1555.
    9. Daniel Belton & Leonardo Gambacorta & Sotirios Kokas & Raoul Minetti, 2023. "Foreign Banks, Liquidity Shocks, and Credit Stability," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 131-169.
    10. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    11. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," BIS Working Papers 839, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 117, pages 1-1.
    13. Morais, Bernardo & Peydró, José-Luis & Roldán Peña, Jessica & Ruiz Ortega, Claudia, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90.
    14. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Ayala, Diana & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Saborowski, Christian, 2017. "What slice of the pie? The corporate bond market boom in emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-35.
    16. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Claessens, Stijn & Cornelli, Giulio & Manaresi, Francesco & Shiina, Yasushi, 2021. "Do macroprudential policies affect non-bank financial intermediation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Yildirim, Canan & Kasman, Adnan & Hamid, Fazelina Sahul, 2021. "Impact of foreign ownership on market power: Do regional banks behave differently in ASEAN countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Fabiani, Andrea & Piñeros, Martha López & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Krogstrup, Signe & Tille, Cédric, 2018. "Foreign currency bank funding and global factors," Kiel Working Papers 2104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Beck, T.H.L. & Ioannidou, V. & Schäfer, L., 2012. "Foreigners vs. Natives : Bank Lending Technologies and Loan Pricing," Other publications TiSEM 27d1ebf0-b7f4-45fa-8b35-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Capital flows; Balance sheet effect; Banks; Systemic risk; Global liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:87:y:2023:i:c:p:35-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.