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The quality of the estimators of the ETI

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  • Aronsson, Thomas
  • Jenderny, Katharina
  • Lanot, Gauthier

Abstract

The elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is a central statistic for tax policy design. One purpose of the present paper is to use Monte Carlo simulation techniques to assess the bias and precision of the prevalent estimators in the literature, the IV-regression estimator and the bunching estimator. Thereby, we aim to provide arguments in favor of, or against, using these methods. Another is to suggest indirect inference estimation to improve the quality of the measurement of the ETI. While IV-regression estimators perform well in terms of bias under certain conditions, they are more variable than bunching estimators. We also find that bunching estimators can be biased downward. The estimators based on indirect inference principles are practically unbiased and more precise than the other estimators.

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  • Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2022. "The quality of the estimators of the ETI," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:212:y:2022:i:c:s0047272722000810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104679
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    2. Thomas Aronsson & Katharina Jenderny & Gauthier Lanot, 2024. "A maximum likelihood bunching estimator of the elasticity of taxable income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 200-216, January.
    3. Miao, Dingquan & Selin, Håkan & Söderström, Martin, 2022. "Earnings responses to even higher taxes," Working Paper Series 2022:12, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    4. Lanot, Gauthier & Vesterberg, Mattias, 2021. "The price elasticity of electricity demand when marginal incentives are very large," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2021. "Maximum Likelihood Bunching Estimators of the ETI," Umeå Economic Studies 987, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    6. Spencer Bastani, 2023. "The Marginal Cost of Public Funds: A Brief Guide," CESifo Working Paper Series 10322, CESifo.
    7. Sigaard, Hans Schytte, 2023. "Estimating labor supply responses to Danish tax reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Yang, Xiaoliang & Barros, Lucy & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David, 2023. "The dynamics of redistribution, inequality and growth across China s regions," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elasticity of taxable income; Income tax; Indirect inference; IV estimation; Bunching; Monte Carlo simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General

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