IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v615y2023ics0378437123001048.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A network analysis of the structure and dynamics of FX derivatives markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ospina-Forero, Luis
  • Granados, Oscar M.

Abstract

This work leverages inter-connectivity patterns and dynamics of the FX Options and Non-Delivery Forwards (NDF) to uncover temporal changes in the structure and dynamics of these FX markets via network representations during the period between December 2018 to October 2020. We find considerable structural changes to the NDF market weeks before the volatility increase of financial indices such as VIX or VXEFA and the World Health Organisation pandemic declaration on 11th of March 2020. The NDF market shows evident structural changes, such as an increment in the diversity of operations and the strength of preferential attachment activity. In contrast, the OPT market shows significant changes in its dynamics rather than its structure. Comparing each market dynamics indicates an increased divergence in the specificity of trade operations and distribution of funds, reflecting each market’s contract flexibility. Lastly, this study finds that the network representations provide a simple and insightful understanding of the NDF and OPT markets, and provide a potential avenue for the development of methodologies that provide earlier warning signs of economic instability than traditional economic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Ospina-Forero, Luis & Granados, Oscar M., 2023. "A network analysis of the structure and dynamics of FX derivatives markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 615(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:615:y:2023:i:c:s0378437123001048
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.128549
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437123001048
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2023.128549?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.
    2. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2011. "Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 496-513, June.
    3. Stefano Schiavo & Javier Reyes & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "International trade and financial integration: a weighted network analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 389-399.
    4. Roncoroni, Alan & Battiston, Stefano & Escobar-Farfán, Luis O.L. & Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin, 2021. "Climate risk and financial stability in the network of banks and investment funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Croce, Mariano & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2020. "When the Markets Get COVID: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 14674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. D. A. Stephens, 1994. "Bayesian Retrospective Multiple‐Changepoint Identification," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 43(1), pages 159-178, March.
    7. Goddard, John & Kita, Arben & Wang, Qingwei, 2015. "Investor attention and FX market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 79-96.
    8. Araujo, Gustavo Silva & Leão, Sérgio, 2016. "OTC derivatives: Impacts of regulatory changes in the non-financial sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 132-149.
    9. Pang, Raymond Ka-Kay & Granados, Oscar M. & Chhajer, Harsh & Legara, Erika Fille T., 2021. "An analysis of network filtering methods to sovereign bond yields during COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    10. Schmidt, Anatoly B., 2009. "Detrending the realized volatility in the global FX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(9), pages 1887-1892.
    11. Bradley P. Carlin & Alan E. Gelfand & Adrian F. M. Smith, 1992. "Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis of Changepoint Problems," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 41(2), pages 389-405, June.
    12. Marcos Escobar & Christoph Gschnaidtner, 2018. "A multivariate stochastic volatility model with applications in the foreign exchange market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-43, April.
    13. Jaroslaw Kwapien & Sylwia Gworek & Stanislaw Drozdz & Andrzej Gorski, 2009. "Analysis of a network structure of the foreign currency exchange market," Papers 0906.0480, arXiv.org.
    14. Jarosław Kwapień & Sylwia Gworek & Stanisław Drożdż & Andrzej Górski, 2009. "Analysis of a network structure of the foreign currency exchange market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(1), pages 55-72, June.
    15. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li & Zhou, Chunyang & Lee, Geul, 2014. "Co-movement between RMB and New Taiwan Dollars: Evidences from NDF markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 265-272.
    16. Berndsen, Ron J. & León, Carlos & Renneboog, Luc, 2018. "Financial stability in networks of financial institutions and market infrastructures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 120-135.
    17. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol & Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2021. "Two decades of contagion effect on stock markets: Which events are more contagious?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    18. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Roni Parshani & Gerald Paul & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2010. "Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1025-1028, April.
    19. Nikhil Patel & Dora Xia, 2019. "Offshore markets drive trading of emerging market currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    20. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Stock markets and the COVID-19 fractal contagion effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    21. A. Z. Górski & S. Drożdż & J. Kwapień, 2008. "Scale free effects in world currency exchange network," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 91-96, November.
    22. Sène, Babacar & Mbengue, Mohamed Lamine & Allaya, Mouhamad M., 2021. "Overshooting of sovereign emerging eurobond yields in the context of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    23. Raymond Ka-Kay Pang & Oscar Granados & Harsh Chhajer & Erika Fille Legara, 2020. "An analysis of network filtering methods to sovereign bond yields during COVID-19," Papers 2009.13390, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    24. Hasbrouck, Joel & Levich, Richard M., 2021. "Network structure and pricing in the FX market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 705-729.
    25. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2019. "Intraday volume-volatility nexus in the FX markets: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    26. Doukas, John A. & Zhang, Hao, 2013. "The performance of NDF carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-190.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Jian-Min & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Research on stock volatility risk and investor sentiment contagion from the perspective of multi-layer dynamic network," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Danau, Daniel, 2020. "Prudence and preference for flexibility gain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 776-785.
    3. Tan T. M. Le & Franck Martin & Duc K. Nguyen, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of global currencies: a conditional Granger-causality approach," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2018-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    4. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
    5. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa & Stosic, Tatijana, 2016. "Correlations of multiscale entropy in the FX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 457(C), pages 52-61.
    6. Mansooreh Kazemilari & Maman Abdurachman Djauhari & Zuhaimy Ismail, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Market Performance: Evidence from Bivariate Time Series Approach," Papers 1608.07694, arXiv.org.
    7. Gautier Marti & Frank Nielsen & Miko{l}aj Bi'nkowski & Philippe Donnat, 2017. "A review of two decades of correlations, hierarchies, networks and clustering in financial markets," Papers 1703.00485, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    8. Fang, Ming & Taylor, Stephen & Uddin, Ajim, 2022. "The network structure of overnight index swap rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    9. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    10. Xu, Helian & Cheng, Long, 2016. "The QAP weighted network analysis method and its application in international services trade," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 448(C), pages 91-101.
    11. Gang-Jin Wang & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley, 2018. "Correlation Structure and Evolution of World Stock Markets: Evidence from Pearson and Partial Correlation-Based Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 607-635, March.
    12. Cao, Jie & Wen, Fenghua & Stanley, H. Eugene & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "Multilayer financial networks and systemic importance: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Kazemilari, Mansooreh & Djauhari, Maman Abdurachman, 2015. "Correlation network analysis for multi-dimensional data in stocks market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 62-75.
    14. Wang, Gang-Jin & Chen, Yang-Yang & Si, Hui-Bin & Xie, Chi & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Multilayer information spillover networks analysis of China’s financial institutions based on variance decompositions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 325-347.
    15. Shangkun Deng & Kazuki Yoshiyama & Takashi Mitsubuchi & Akito Sakurai, 2015. "Hybrid Method of Multiple Kernel Learning and Genetic Algorithm for Forecasting Short-Term Foreign Exchange Rates," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 49-89, January.
    16. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Alves, Iván, 2018. "Multiplex interbank networks and systemic importance: An application to European data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 17-37.
    17. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    18. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo, 2021. "The international spread of COVID-19 stock market collapses," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    19. Caceres-Santos, Jonnathan & Rodriguez-Martinez, Anahi & Caccioli, Fabio & Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin, 2020. "Systemic risk and other interdependencies among banks in Bolivia," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    20. Boyao Wu & Difang Huang & Muzi Chen, 2023. "Estimating contagion mechanism in global equity market with time‐zone effect," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 543-572, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:615:y:2023:i:c:s0378437123001048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.