IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v505y2018icp1139-1149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do sentiments influence market dynamics? A reconstruction of the Brazilian stock market and its mood

Author

Listed:
  • Araújo, Tanya
  • Eleutério, Samuel
  • Louçã, Francisco

Abstract

Sentiments play an important role in justifying economic actions and are typically presented as being a modern incarnation of expectations that influence financial markets, whether they be of a Keynesian or other type. For the case of the São Paulo Stock Market Index (IBovespa), this paper investigates whether sentiments, as publically expressed in specialised media, represent a covariate variable which influences stock market returns, and also how market dynamics evolve through time, especially in times of major shocks or recessions. In this study we use a network approach to relate the evolution of asset returns to a sentiments index. Daily data from IBovespa and a Thomson Reuters MarketPsych index are used as fair indicators of the evolution of the Brazilian economy from 2007 to 2015. We prove that changes in market prices affect news more than the reverse.

Suggested Citation

  • Araújo, Tanya & Eleutério, Samuel & Louçã, Francisco, 2018. "Do sentiments influence market dynamics? A reconstruction of the Brazilian stock market and its mood," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 1139-1149.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:505:y:2018:i:c:p:1139-1149
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.04.045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118304758
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2018.04.045?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    2. Gopikrishnan, P & Plerou, V & Liu, Y & Amaral, L.A.N & Gabaix, X & Stanley, H.E, 2000. "Scaling and correlation in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 362-373.
    3. Chester Curme & H. Eugene Stanley & Irena Vodenska, 2015. "Coupled Network Approach To Predictability Of Financial Market Returns And News Sentiments," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(07), pages 1-26, November.
    4. Alexander M. Petersen & Fengzhong Wang & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2010. "Market dynamics immediately before and after financial shocks: quantifying the Omori, productivity and Bath laws," Papers 1006.1882, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2010.
    5. Saike He & Xiaolong Zheng & Daniel Zeng & Chuan Luo & Zhu Zhang, 2016. "Exploring Entrainment Patterns of Human Emotion in Social Media," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Akyol, Sinem & Alatas, Bilal, 2020. "Sentiment classification within online social media using whale optimization algorithm and social impact theory based optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    2. Gao, Zhenbin & Zhang, Jie, 2023. "The fluctuation correlation between investor sentiment and stock index using VMD-LSTM: Evidence from China stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klodt, Henning & Lehment, Harmen (ed.), 2009. "The Crisis and Beyond," Kiel E-Books, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), number 60981.
    2. Dow Alexander & Dow Sheila C., 2011. "Animal Spirits Revisited," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-25, December.
    3. Benjamin Enke & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 313-332.
    4. Andreia Tolciu, 2010. "The Economics of Social Interactions: An Interdisciplinary Ground for Social Scientists?," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 223-242, January.
    5. Venkatasubramanian, Venkat & Luo, Yu & Sethuraman, Jay, 2015. "How much inequality in income is fair? A microeconomic game theoretic perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 435(C), pages 120-138.
    6. Ulrich van Suntum, "undated". "Economic Confidence, Negative Interest Rates, and Liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0," Working Papers 200108, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    7. Marc Hayford & Anastasios Malliaris, 2010. "Asset Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007--09: An Overview of Theories and Policies," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 279-286, January.
    8. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun & Inna Makarenko, 2016. "Intraday Anomalies and Market Efficiency: A Trading Robot Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 275-295, February.
    10. Deckers Thomas & Falk Armin & Schildberg-Hörisch Hannah, 2016. "Nominal or Real? The Impact of Regional Price Levels on Satisfaction with Life," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1337-1358, September.
    11. Omokolade Akinsomi & Yener Coskun & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2016. "Impact of Volatility and Equity Market Uncertainty on Herd Behavior: Evidence from UK REITs," Working Papers 201688, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Hege, Ulrich & Nuti, Alessandro, 2011. "The Private Equity Secondaries Market During the Financial Crisis and the “Valuation Gap”," MPRA Paper 39550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Lilia Karnizova & Hashmat Khan, 2010. "The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 10-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Aug 2011.
    14. M. Çule & M. E. Fulton, 2013. "Corporate governance and subjective well-being," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 364-367, March.
    15. Michael Demmler & Amilcar Orlian Fernández Domínguez, 2021. "Bitcoin and the South Sea Company: A comparative analysis," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(1), pages 197-224, March.
    16. Chao Gu & Cyril Monnet & Ed Nosal & Randall Wright, 2019. "On the Instability of Banking and Other Financial Intermediation," Working Papers 19.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    17. Kleemann, Linda & Krieger-Boden, Christiane, 2011. "Bridging morale and business through shared value?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 53147, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Tómasson, Helgi & Zoega, Gylfi, 2016. "Around the world with Irving Fisher," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 232-243.
    19. Kevin D. Hoover, 2014. "Man and machine in macroeconomics," Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, L'Harmattan, issue 67, pages 15-34.
    20. Neto, David, 2021. "Are Google searches making the Bitcoin market run amok? A tail event analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:505:y:2018:i:c:p:1139-1149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.