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Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation

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  • Enke, Benjamin

    ()
    (University of Bonn)

  • Zimmermann, Florian

    ()
    (University of Zurich)

Abstract

Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper shows experimentally that in such contexts many people neglect these correlations in the updating process and treat correlated information as independent. In consequence, people's beliefs are excessively sensitive to well-connected information sources, implying a pattern of "overshooting" beliefs. Additionally, in an experimental asset market, correlation neglect not only drives overoptimism and overpessimism at the individual level, but also affects aggregate outcomes in a systematic manner. In particular, the excessive confidence swings caused by correlated signals give rise to predictable price bubbles and crashes. These findings are reminiscent of popular narratives according to which aggregate booms and busts might be driven by the spread of "stories". Our results also lend direct support to recent models of boundedly rational social learning.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 7372.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7372

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Keywords: beliefs; correlation neglect; experiments; markets; overshooting;

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  8. Selten, Reinhard, 1996. "Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule," Discussion Paper Serie B, University of Bonn, Germany 390, University of Bonn, Germany.
  9. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg, 2013. "Overconfidence in Political Behavior," NBER Working Papers 19250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bormann, Sven-Kristjan, 2013. "Sentiment indices on financial markets: What do they measure?," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-58, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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