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Intraday Anomalies and Market Efficiency: A Trading Robot Analysis

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • Alex Plastun
  • Inna Makarenko

Abstract

One of the leading criticisms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is the presence of so-called “anomalies”, i.e. empirical evidence of abnormal behaviour of asset prices which is inconsistent with market efficiency. However, most studies do not take into account transaction costs. Their existence implies that in fact traders might not be able to make abnormal profits. This paper examines whether or not anomalies such as intraday or time of the day effects give rise to exploitable profit opportunities by replicating the actions of traders. Specifically, the analysis is based on a trading robot which simulates their behaviour, and incorporates variable transaction costs (spreads). The results suggest that trading strategies aimed at exploiting daily patterns do not generate extra profits. Further, there are no significant differences between sub-periods (2005-2006 – “normal”; 2007-2009 – “crisis”; 2010-2011 – “post-crisis).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4752.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4752

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Keywords: efficient market hypothesis; intraday patterns; time of the day anomaly; trading strategy;

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  1. Pawel STRAWINSKI & Robert SLEPACZUK, 2008. "Analysis Of High Frequency Data On The Warsaw Stock Exchange In The Context Of Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 306-319.
  2. A. Abhyankar & D. Ghosh & E. Levin & R.J. Limmack, 1997. "Bid-ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Intra-day Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 343-362.
  3. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
  4. Harris, Lawrence, 1986. "A transaction data study of weekly and intradaily patterns in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-117, May.
  5. Harris, Lawrence, 1989. "A Day-End Transaction Price Anomaly," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 29-45, March.
  6. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  8. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  9. CORONEO, Laura & VEREDAS, David, 2006. "Intradaily seasonality of returns distribution. A quantile regression approach and intradaily VaR estimation," CORE Discussion Papers, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 2006077, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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