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The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada

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  • Lilia Karnizova

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON)

  • Hashmat Khan

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada,)

Abstract

When stock prices rise, so does aggregate consumer spending. A traditional explanation for this phenomenon is based on wealth effects. However, movements of the stock market may affect consumer spending indirectly, by influencing consumer confidence. A bullish stock market may make consumers feel more optimistic about the future of the aggregate economy, and hence increase their spending. This paper investigates the existence of the consumer confidence channel of asset price transmission in Canada. The analysis is based on the indices of consumer confidence from the Conference Board of Canada and the Toronto Stock Exchange index. The results are supportive of the consumer confidence channel at the national level. There is also evidence of asymmetric effects of stock price changes on confidence changes: declines of the stock index have larger and statistically more significant effects relative to its increases.

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File URL: http://www.sciencessociales.uottawa.ca/sites/default/files/public/eco/fra/documents/1004E_001.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Ottawa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1004E.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:1004e

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Keywords: Stock market; Consumer confidence; Wealth; Asymmetry.;

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  1. W. Jos Jansen & Niek J. Nahuis, 2002. "The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence: European Evidence," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  2. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
  3. Lise Pichette & Dominique Tremblay, 2003. "Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada?," Working Papers 03-30, Bank of Canada.
  4. O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 1998. "Consumer confidence announcements: do they matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 155-166.
  5. Brozozowski, Matthew & Gervais, Martin & Klein, Paul & Suzuki, Micho, 2009. "Consumption, income, and wealth inequality in Canada," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0904, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  6. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
  7. Flacco, Paul R & Parker, Randall E, 1992. "Income Uncertainty and the Onset of the Great Depression," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(1), pages 154-71, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Emrah İ. Çevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Erdal Atukeren, 2012. "Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 299-312, February.

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