Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rypdal, Martin
  • Løvsletten, Ola
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We discuss stochastic modeling of volatility persistence and anti-correlations in electricity spot prices, and for this purpose we present two mean-reverting versions of the multifractal random walk (MRW). In the first model the anti-correlations are modeled in the same way as in an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, i.e. via a drift (damping) term, and in the second model the anti-correlations are included by letting the innovations in the MRW model be fractional Gaussian noise with H<1/2. For both models we present approximate maximum likelihood methods, and we apply these methods to estimate the parameters for the spot prices in the Nordic electricity market. The maximum likelihood estimates show that electricity spot prices are characterized by scaling exponents that are significantly different from the corresponding exponents in stock markets, confirming the exceptional nature of the electricity market. In order to compare the damped MRW model with the fractional MRW model we use ensemble simulations and wavelet-based variograms, and we observe that certain features of the spot prices are better described by the damped MRW model. The characteristic correlation time is estimated to approximately half a year.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437112007972
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 392 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 194-207

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:1:p:194-207

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Multifractal; Electricity spot prices; Anti-persistence; Mean reversal; Ornstein–Uhlenbeck; Maximum likelihood; Volatility persistence;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Simonsen, Ingve, 2003. "Measuring anti-correlations in the nordic electricity spot market by wavelets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 597-606.
    2. Ola L{\o}vsletten & Martin Rypdal, 2011. "Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks," Papers 1112.0105, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2012.
    3. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    4. Norouzzadeh, P. & Dullaert, W. & Rahmani, B., 2007. "Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 333-342.
    5. Calvet, Laurent & Fisher, Adlai, 2001. "Forecasting multifractal volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 27-58, November.
    6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
    7. Weron, Rafal, 2000. "Energy price risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 127-134.
    8. A. Ian McLeod & Hao Yu & Zinovi L. Krougly, . "Algorithms for Linear Time Series Analysis: With R Package," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 23(i05).
    9. Ingve Simonsen, 2001. "Measuring Anti-Correlations in the Nordic Electricity Spot Market by Wavelets," Papers cond-mat/0108033, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2003.
    10. Erlwein, Christina & Benth, Fred Espen & Mamon, Rogemar, 2010. "HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1034-1043, September.
    11. Malo, Pekka, 2009. "Modeling electricity spot and futures price dependence: A multifrequency approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(22), pages 4763-4779.
    12. Laurent E. Calvet, 2004. "How to Forecast Long-Run Volatility: Regime Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 49-83.
    13. Fred Espen Benth & Jan Kallsen & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2007. "A Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Derivatives Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 153-169.
    14. Bacry, E. & Kozhemyak, A. & Muzy, Jean-Francois, 2008. "Continuous cascade models for asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 156-199, January.
    15. Torstein Bye & Einar Hope, 2005. "Deregulation of electricity markets—The Norwegian experience," Discussion Papers 433, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    16. Simonsen, Ingve, 2005. "Volatility of power markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 10-20.
    17. Lobato, Ignacio N & Velasco, Carlos, 2000. "Long Memory in Stock-Market Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 410-27, October.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    19. Rafal Weron & Beata Przybylowicz, 2000. "Hurst analysis of electricity price dynamics," HSC Research Reports HSC/00/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    20. Erzgräber, Hartmut & Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldívar, José-Manuel & Touchette, Hugo & Gutiérrez, Eugénio & Arrowsmith, David K., 2008. "Time series analysis and long range correlations of Nordic spot electricity market data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6567-6574.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Rypdal, Martin & Sirnes, Espen & Løvsletten, Ola & Rypdal, Kristoffer, 2013. "Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(16), pages 3335-3343.
    2. Sun, Qi & Xu, Weijun & Xiao, Weilin, 2013. "An empirical estimation for mean-reverting coal prices with long memory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-181.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:1:p:194-207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.