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HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model

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  • Erlwein, Christina
  • Benth, Fred Espen
  • Mamon, Rogemar
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    Abstract

    In this paper we develop a model for electricity spot price dynamics. The spot price is assumed to follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with an added compound Poisson process. In this way, the model allows for mean-reversion and possible jumps. All parameters are modulated by a hidden Markov chain in discrete time. They are able to switch between different economic regimes representing the interaction of various factors. Through the application of reference probability technique, adaptive filters are derived, which in turn, provide optimal estimates for the state of the Markov chain and related quantities of the observation process. The EM algorithm is applied to find optimal estimates of the model parameters in terms of the recursive filters. We implement this self-calibrating model on a deseasonalised series of daily spot electricity prices from the Nordic exchange Nord Pool. On the basis of one-step ahead forecasts, we found that the model is able to capture the empirical characteristics of Nord Pool spot prices.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 1034-1043

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:5:p:1034-1043

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Adaptive filters Forecasting Hidden Markov model Parameter estimation Electricity spot price;

    References

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    1. Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3131736, Tilburg University.
    2. Natalia Fabra & Juan Toro, 2001. "Price Wars and Collusion in the Spanish Electricity Market," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2001/05, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    3. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    4. B. Ricky Rambharat & Anthony E. Brockwell & Duane J. Seppi, 2005. "A threshold autoregressive model for wholesale electricity prices," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(2), pages 287-299.
    5. Fred Espen Benth & Lars Ekeland & Ragnar Hauge & Bj�Rn Fredrik Nielsen, 2003. "A note on arbitrage-free pricing of forward contracts in energy markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 325-336.
    6. De Jong Cyriel, 2006. "The Nature of Power Spikes: A Regime-Switch Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
    7. Geman, Hélyette & Roncoroni, Andréa, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1433, Paris Dauphine University.
    8. H�lyette Geman & Andrea Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1225-1262, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafal, 2012. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," MPRA Paper 42563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rypdal, Martin & Løvsletten, Ola, 2013. "Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 194-207.
    3. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
    4. Martin Rypdal & Ola L{\o}vsletten, 2012. "Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes," Papers 1201.6137, arXiv.org.
    5. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    6. Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices," MPRA Paper 26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Janczura, Joanna & Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2012. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," MPRA Paper 39277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
    9. Egil Ferkingstad & Anders L{\o}land, 2014. "Coping with area price risk in electricity markets: Forecasting Contracts for Difference in the Nordic power market," Papers 1406.6862, arXiv.org.
    10. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models with an application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 97(3), pages 239-270, July.
    11. Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Tenyakov, Anton, 2013. "Filtering and forecasting commodity futures prices under an HMM framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1001-1013.

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