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On the efficiency of sovereign bond markets

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Author Info

  • Zunino, Luciano
  • Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio
  • Guercio, M. Belén
  • Martinez, Lisana B.
  • Rosso, Osvaldo A.

Abstract

The existence of memory in financial time series has been extensively studied for several stock markets around the world by means of different approaches. However, fixed income markets, i.e. those where corporate and sovereign bonds are traded, have been much less studied. We believe that, given the relevance of these markets, not only from the investors’, but also from the issuers’ point of view (government and firms), it is necessary to fill this gap in the literature. In this paper, we study the sovereign market efficiency of thirty bond indices of both developed and emerging countries, using an innovative statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality plane. This representation space allows us to establish an efficiency ranking of different markets and distinguish different bond market dynamics. We conclude that the classification derived from the complexity-entropy causality plane is consistent with the qualifications assigned by major rating companies to the sovereign instruments. Additionally, we find a correlation between permutation entropy, economic development and market size that could be of interest for policy makers and investors.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

Volume (Year): 391 (2012)
Issue (Month): 18 ()
Pages: 4342-4349

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Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:391:y:2012:i:18:p:4342-4349

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Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

Related research

Keywords: Sovereign bond market efficiency; Complexity-entropy causality plane; Permutation entropy; Permutation statistical complexity; Bandt and Pompe method; Ordinal time series analysis;

References

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  1. Zunino, Luciano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Serinaldi, Francesco & Zanin, Massimiliano & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2011. "Commodity predictability analysis with a permutation information theory approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 876-890.
  2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  3. Sonia R. Bentes & Rui Menezes & Diana A. Mendes, 2007. "Long Memory and Volatility Clustering: is the empirical evidence consistent across stock markets?," Papers 0709.2178, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
  4. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  5. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
  6. Pablo Emilio Guidotti & Jose De Gregorio, 1992. "Financial Development and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 92/101, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Bentes, Sónia R. & Menezes, Rui & Mendes, Diana A., 2008. "Long memory and volatility clustering: Is the empirical evidence consistent across stock markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3826-3830.
  8. Harry V. Roberts, 1959. "Stock‐Market “Patterns” And Financial Analysis: Methodological Suggestions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, 03.
  9. Kumar, Manmohan S. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Dynamics of international integration of government securities' markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 142-154, January.
  10. Jordan, Susan D. & Jordan, Bradford D., 1991. "Seasonality in Daily Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 269-285, June.
  11. Zunino, Luciano & Zanin, Massimiliano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2010. "Complexity-entropy causality plane: A useful approach to quantify the stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1891-1901.
  12. Martin, M.T. & Plastino, A. & Rosso, O.A., 2006. "Generalized statistical complexity measures: Geometrical and analytical properties," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 369(2), pages 439-462.
  13. Dias, João, 2012. "Sovereign debt crisis in the European Union: A minimum spanning tree approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2046-2055.
  14. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  15. Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & Boscia, Marian W., 2010. "Comovements in government bond markets: A minimum spanning tree analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4875-4886.
  16. Fink, Gerhard & Haiss, Peter & Vuksic, Goran, 2009. "Contribution of financial market segments at different stages of development: Transition, cohesion and mature economies compared," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 431-455, December.
  17. Lamberti, P.W & Martin, M.T & Plastino, A & Rosso, O.A, 2004. "Intensive entropic non-triviality measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 334(1), pages 119-131.
  18. repec:fth:wobaco:1083 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Zunino, Luciano & Zanin, Massimiliano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2009. "Forbidden patterns, permutation entropy and stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(14), pages 2854-2864.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Martinez, Lisana B. & Terceño, Antonio & Teruel, Mercedes, 2013. "Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 60-75.
  2. Tsai, Hui-Ju, 2014. "The informational efficiency of bonds and stocks: The role of institutional sized bond trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-45.

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