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Cross-correlation and the predictability of financial return series

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  • Duan, Wen-Qi
  • Stanley, H. Eugene
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    Abstract

    This paper examines whether we can improve the predictability of financial return series by exploiting the effect of cross-correlations among different financial markets. We forecast financial return series based on the support vector machines (SVM) method, which can surpass the random-walk model consistently. By comparing the mean absolute errors and the root mean squared errors, we show that it is hard to improve the predictability of financial return series by incorporating correlated return series into SVM-based forecasting models, even though there are Granger causal relationships among them.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 390 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 290-296

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:2:p:290-296

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Cross-correlation; Predictability; Support vector machines;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Aki-Hiro Sato & Takaki Hayashi & Janusz Hołyst, 2012. "Comprehensive analysis of market conditions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 167-179, October.
    2. Lin, Chiun-Sin & Chiu, Sheng-Hsiung & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2012. "Empirical mode decomposition–based least squares support vector regression for foreign exchange rate forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2583-2590.
    3. Tsai, Kuo-Ting & Lih, Jiann-Shing & Ko, Jing-Yuan, 2012. "The overnight effect on the Taiwan stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(24), pages 6497-6505.
    4. Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi & Zhao, Lin, 2013. "Cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate crude oil and the stock markets of the BRIC," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(21), pages 5356-5368.

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