IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v75y2022ics0927538x22001524.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How did the oil price affect Japanese yen and other currencies? Fresh insights from the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Kaifeng
  • Devpura, Neluka
  • Cheng, Sijia

Abstract

In this paper, we use a shock spillover index to test the hypothesis that oil prices helped shape exchange rate behavior during the COVID-19 period. We use four exchange rates (CAD, EURO, JPY, and GBP vis-à-vis the USD) together with the oil price variable to test the importance of both return and volatility spillovers. Using hourly data, we consistently discover that both oil price return and volatility spillovers have become more important in explaining exchange rates in the COVID-19 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Kaifeng & Devpura, Neluka & Cheng, Sijia, 2022. "How did the oil price affect Japanese yen and other currencies? Fresh insights from the COVID-19 pandemic," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:75:y:2022:i:c:s0927538x22001524
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101857
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X22001524
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101857?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neluka Devpura* & Iman Gunadi & Aryo Sasongko, 2021. "Volatility Spillover Of Intraday Exchange Rates On Some Selected Asean Countries," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(3), pages 335-364.
    2. Singhal, Shelly & Choudhary, Sangita & Biswal, Pratap Chandra, 2019. "Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-261.
    3. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
    4. Malik, Farooq & Umar, Zaghum, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness of oil price shocks and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
    6. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Christos Floros & David Gabauer, 2018. "The dynamic connectedness of UK regional property returns," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(14), pages 3110-3134, November.
    7. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    8. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    9. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    10. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2013. "Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 721-728, February.
    11. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    12. Susan Sunila Sharma & Yezhou Sha, 2020. "Part A: Special Section on COVID-19 Research," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3551-3553, December.
    13. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers and Linkages in Asian Stock Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2770-2781, December.
    14. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2018. "Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 499-515.
    15. Wenli Huang & Mian Wu, 2021. "Are Spillover Effects Between Oil and Gold Prices Asymmetric? Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-7.
    16. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "COVID-19 research outcomes: An agenda for future research," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 439-445.
    17. Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on intraday volatility spillover between oil, gold, and stock markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 702-715.
    18. Anasuya Haldar & Narayan Sethi, 2021. "The News Effect Of Covid-19 On Global Financial Market Volatility," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(Special I), pages 33-58, January.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    20. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 49-58, July.
    21. Kuang-Liang Chang, 2017. "A Mixed Dependence Between the Exchange Rate and International Crude Oil Returns: An Application of Dynamic Mixture Copula," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(10), pages 2347-2360, October.
    22. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    23. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
    24. Neluka Devpura, 2021. "Spillover Effects Of Exchange Rate Returns In Selected Asian Countries," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(1), pages 34-52.
    25. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    26. Mensi, Walid & Boubaker, Ferihane Zaraa & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2018. "Dynamic volatility spillovers and connectedness between global, regional, and GIPSI stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 230-238.
    27. Yezhou Sha & Susan Sunila Sharma, 2020. "Research on Pandemics Special Issue of the Journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2133-2137, August.
    28. Karim Eslamloueyan & Amir Kia, 2015. "Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Oil-Producing Countries of the Middle East and North Africa: A Panel Data Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 842-855, July.
    29. Dinh Hoang Bach Phan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2020. "Country Responses and the Reaction of the Stock Market to COVID-19—a Preliminary Exposition," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2138-2150, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taufeeque Ahmad Siddiqui & Haseen Ahmed & Mohammad Naushad & Uzma Khan, 2023. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 566-578, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chowdhury, Kushal Banik & Garg, Bhavesh, 2022. "Has COVID-19 intensified the oil price–exchange rate nexus?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 280-298.
    2. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Baghestani, Hamid & Chazi, Abdelaziz & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2019. "A directional analysis of oil prices and real exchange rates in BRIC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 450-456.
    7. Antonio J., Garzón & Luis A., Hierro, 2022. "Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 130-146.
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Jung, Young Cheol & Das, Anupam & McFarlane, Adian, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between the oil price and the US-Canada exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-206.
    10. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed, 2023. "Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Qiang Ji & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Muhammad Tahir Suleman, 2020. "Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: lessons to learn," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    12. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    13. Xu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Wan, Li & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Dynamic link between oil prices and exchange rates: A non-linear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Wang Gao & Ting Li & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Exchange Rates—From a Time-Varying Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    15. Singh, Vipul Kumar & Nishant, Shreyank & Kumar, Pawan, 2018. "Dynamic and directional network connectedness of crude oil and currencies: Evidence from implied volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 48-63.
    16. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzon & Jorge M. Uribe, 2017. "Dynamic Connectedness and Causality between Oil prices and Exchange Rates," Borradores de Economia 1025, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    18. Yang Liu & Tongshuai Qiao & Liyan Han, 2022. "Does clean energy matter? Revisiting the spillovers between energy and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2068-2083, November.
    19. Jozef Baruník and Ev~en Kocenda, 2019. "Total, Asymmetric and Frequency Connectedness between Oil and Forex Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    20. Sui, Bo & Chang, Chun-Ping & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Analyzing causality between epidemics and oil prices: Role of the stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 148-158.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:75:y:2022:i:c:s0927538x22001524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.