IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v74y2022ics0927538x22000877.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Triple A default

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Kaihua
  • Qiao, Guannan

Abstract

Credit ratings in China are highly skewed to the top. Despite heightened regulatory scrutiny and a gradual unwinding of implicit guarantee, we document a significant trend of rating inflation in recent years. We show that shopping has a large positive impact on upgrades, and highly rated firms are more likely to default during this period. The continued loosening of rating standards is discounted by the market which partially undoes the effect of indiscriminate rating practice. While the market anticipates most rating adjustments, it converges to a unique AA- boundary effect amidst the pool of increasingly higher ratings.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Kaihua & Qiao, Guannan, 2022. "Triple A default," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:74:y:2022:i:c:s0927538x22000877
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X22000877
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101792?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doherty, Neil A. & Kartasheva, Anastasia V. & Phillips, Richard D., 2012. "Information effect of entry into credit ratings market: The case of insurers' ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 308-330.
    2. Skreta, Vasiliki & Veldkamp, Laura, 2009. "Ratings shopping and asset complexity: A theory of ratings inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 678-695, July.
    3. Li-Wen Lin & Curtis J. Milhaupt, 2017. "Bonded to the State: A Network Perspective on China's Corporate Debt Market," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 1-39.
    4. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Joel Shapiro, 2012. "The Credit Ratings Game," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 85-112, February.
    5. Morkoetter, Stefan & Stebler, Roman & Westerfeld, Simone, 2017. "Competition in the credit rating Industry: Benefits for investors and issuers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 235-257.
    6. Darren J. Kisgen & Philip E. Strahan, 2010. "Do Regulations Based on Credit Ratings Affect a Firm's Cost of Capital?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4324-4347, December.
    7. Becker, Bo & Milbourn, Todd, 2011. "How did increased competition affect credit ratings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 493-514, September.
    8. Park, Gitae & Lee, Ho-Young, 2018. "Opportunistic behaviors of credit rating agencies and bond issuers," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-59.
    9. Lugo, Stefano, 2014. "Discretionary ratings and the pricing of subprime mortgage-backed securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-260.
    10. Kisgen, Darren J. & Nickerson, Jordan & Osborn, Matthew & Reuter, Jonathan, 2020. "Analyst Promotions within Credit Rating Agencies: Accuracy or Bias?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 869-896, May.
    11. Bar-Isaac, Heski & Shapiro, Joel, 2013. "Ratings quality over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-78.
    12. Bertoni, Fabio & Lugo, Stefano, 2018. "Detecting abnormal changes in credit default swap spreads using matching-portfolio models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 146-158.
    13. Aysun Alp, 2013. "Structural Shifts in Credit Rating Standards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2435-2470, December.
    14. Manso, Gustavo, 2013. "Feedback effects of credit ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 535-548.
    15. Jiang, Xianfeng & Packer, Frank, 2019. "Credit ratings of Chinese firms by domestic and global agencies: Assessing the determinants and impact," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-193.
    16. Toscano, Francesca, 2020. "Does the Dodd-Frank Act reduce the conflict of interests of credit rating agencies?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Dong, Yi & Hou, Qiannan & Ni, Chenkai, 2021. "Implicit government guarantees and credit ratings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Daniel M. Covitz & Paul Harrison, 2003. "Testing conflicts of interest at bond rating agencies with market anticipation: evidence that reputation incentives dominate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Dimitrov, Valentin & Palia, Darius & Tang, Leo, 2015. "Impact of the Dodd-Frank act on credit ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 505-520.
    20. Ramin P. Baghai & Henri Servaes & Ane Tamayo, 2014. "Have Rating Agencies Become More Conservative? Implications for Capital Structure and Debt Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1961-2005, October.
    21. Darren J. Kisgen, 2006. "Credit Ratings and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1035-1072, June.
    22. Livingston, Miles & Poon, Winnie P.H. & Zhou, Lei, 2018. "Are Chinese credit ratings relevant? A study of the Chinese bond market and credit rating industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-232.
    23. Mathias Kronlund, 2020. "Do Bond Issuers Shop for Favorable Credit Ratings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5944-5968, December.
    24. Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.
    25. Sean Flynn & Andra Ghent, 2018. "Competition and Credit Ratings After the Fall," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1672-1692, April.
    26. Yao, Zhiyong & Gu, Dingwei & Chen, Yongmin, 2017. "Rating deflation versus inflation: On procyclical credit ratings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-64.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vu, Huong & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2022. "Does competition improve sovereign credit rating quality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Goergen, Marc & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Koutroumpis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Do multiple credit ratings reduce money left on the table? Evidence from U.S. IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Nelson Camanho & Pragyan Deb & Zijun Liu, 2022. "Credit rating and competition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2873-2897, July.
    4. Abad, Pilar & Ferreras, Rodrigo & Robles, M-Dolores, 2019. "Informational role of rating revisions after reputational events and regulation reforms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 91-103.
    5. Wenming Xu & Yan Liu, 2021. "Does reputational capital affect credit rating agencies?: empirical evidence from a natural experiment in China," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 433-468, June.
    6. Xia, Han, 2014. "Can investor-paid credit rating agencies improve the information quality of issuer-paid rating agencies?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 450-468.
    7. Attig, Najah & Driss, Hamdi & El Ghoul, Sadok, 2021. "Credit ratings quality in uncertain times," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Jess N. Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2020. "Where the Heart Is: Information Production and the Home Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5532-5557, December.
    9. Mo, Guiqing & Gao, Zhi & Zhou, Lei, 2021. "China's no-bailout reform: Impact on bond yields and rating standards," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Cornaggia, Jess & Cornaggia, Kimberly J. & Xia, Han, 2016. "Revolving doors on Wall Street," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 400-419.
    11. Bae, Kee-Hong & Driss, Hamdi & Roberts, Gordon S., 2019. "Does competition affect ratings quality? Evidence from Canadian corporate bonds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 605-623.
    12. Valentina Bruno & Jess Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia, 2016. "Does Regulatory Certification Affect the Information Content of Credit Ratings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1578-1597, June.
    13. Sumit Agarwal & Vincent Y. S. Chen & Weina Zhang, 2016. "The Information Value of Credit Rating Action Reports: A Textual Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2218-2240, August.
    14. Wei Tian & Xiangyun Zhou & Yixiang Tian & Wei Meng, 2020. "Short-term competition and long-term convergence between domestic and global rating agencies: Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-15, May.
    15. Hirth, Stefan, 2014. "Credit rating dynamics and competition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 100-112.
    16. Baker, H. Kent & Dutta, Shantanu & Saadi, Samir & Zhong, Ligang, 2022. "Does media coverage affect credit rating change decisions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Klusak, Patrycja & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2019. "The impact of ESMA regulatory identifiers on the quality of ratings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    18. Liu, Yan, 2023. "Essays on credit rating agencies in China," Other publications TiSEM b54b3315-1185-48b8-aaf8-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Patrick Behr & Darren J. Kisgen & Jérôme P. Taillard, 2018. "Did Government Regulations Lead to Inflated Credit Ratings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1034-1054, March.
    20. Hung, Mingyi & Kraft, Pepa & Wang, Shiheng & Yu, Gwen, 2022. "Market power and credit rating standards: Global evidence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating agency; Default; Rating inflation; Shopping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:74:y:2022:i:c:s0927538x22000877. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.