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Margin-trading volatility and stock price crash risk

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  • Lv, Dayong
  • Wu, Wenfeng

Abstract

Previous studies rarely discuss the effect of margin trading on future stock price crash risk, though margin trading is often blamed for destabilizing stock market. We propose three possible mechanisms through which margin trading may affect crash risk. Our empirical results show that neither margin-buying activity nor margin debt is associated with future crash risk, rejecting mechanisms of both “liquidity provision” and “fire sales”. In contrasts, stocks with more margin-trading volatility are predicted to have more crash risk, supporting the view of “arbitrage risk mechanism”. Furthermore, we find that higher margin-trading volatility results in higher overpricing and less information content.

Suggested Citation

  • Lv, Dayong & Wu, Wenfeng, 2019. "Margin-trading volatility and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 179-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:56:y:2019:i:c:p:179-196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2019.06.005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Margin trading; Crash risk; Arbitrage risk; Overpricing; Information content;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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