IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v119y2022ics0264837722002150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The value of land redevelopment in different types of properties: Considering the effect of hold-out problems on the development probability

Author

Listed:
  • Tsai, I-Chun
  • Wang, Wen-Kai

Abstract

Housing price combines the building value and land value of real estate, in which the building value can be measured using its reconstruction cost minus its depreciation. For land value, the future redevelopment value of the land should be considered in addition its present use value. However, the uncertainty of land redevelopment is often high because the development probability is influenced by the benefit of redevelopment and whether an agreement can be reached between landowners. If the influence of these two factors on the likelihood of redevelopment is incorrectly assessed, the land value may be overestimated or underestimated. Hence, this study adopts a real option model to solve the endogenous value of land with redevelopment opportunities. Furthermore, by considering the conflicts of interest between landowners, this study infers that the prices of different types of properties may reflect the land redevelopment value differently. Our inference is that landowners with solely owned houses can redevelop their land at the optimal time without interference from exogenous factors; hence, their land prices should include the redevelopment value calculated based on real options. In contrast, when land ownership is distributed among multiple individuals; hold-out problems emerge, landowners may choose not to undertake redevelopment, and forfeit of the land redevelopment value is plausible. Accordingly, the land value of such real estate can only be estimated based on the cash flow in the current condition. To verify the inferences of this study, in the empirical part of the paper, we use transaction samples from Taipei occurring between 2015 and 2020, which include three types of housing—townhouses (sole ownership of land), apartments (land ownership shared among a few individuals), and high-rise condominium units (land ownership shared among numerous individuals). Using these three types of housing for estimation reveals whether the land redevelopment value of houses is included in their corresponding housing prices, under various ownership concentrations. Subsequently, by using a threshold regression model, the study demonstrates that the likelihood of the existence of land redevelopment value increases with ownership concentration, which contributes to higher housing prices of older houses over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsai, I-Chun & Wang, Wen-Kai, 2022. "The value of land redevelopment in different types of properties: Considering the effect of hold-out problems on the development probability," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:119:y:2022:i:c:s0264837722002150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722002150
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106188?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    2. Katharina Knoll & Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2017. "No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 331-353, February.
    3. Koetter, Theo & Sikder, Sujit Kumar & Weiss, Dominik, 2021. "The cooperative urban land development model in Germany - An effective instrument to support affordable housing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Chris Cunningham, 2013. "Estimating the holdout problem in land assembly," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Grossman, Zachary & Pincus, Jonathan & Shapiro, Perry & Yengin, Duygu, 2019. "Second-best mechanisms for land assembly and hold-out problems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Coulson, N. Edward & McMillen, Daniel P., 2008. "Estimating time, age and vintage effects in housing prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 138-151, June.
    7. Wang, Han & Wu, Xingyi & Wu, Di & Nie, Xin, 2019. "Will land development time restriction reduce land price? The perspective of American call options," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-83.
    8. Stephen Malpezzi & Larry Ozanne & Thomas G. Thibodeau, 1987. "Microeconomic Estimates of Housing Depreciation," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 63(4), pages 372-385.
    9. Knight, John R. & Sirmans, C. F., 1996. "Depreciation, Maintenance, and Housing Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 369-389, December.
    10. Marc K. Francke & Alex M. Minne, 2017. "Land, Structure and Depreciation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 415-451, April.
    11. Wang, Weifang & van Noorloos, Femke & Spit, Tejo, 2020. "Stakeholder power relations in Land Value Capture: comparing public (China) and private (U.S.) dominant regimes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Henry J. Munneke & Kiplan S. Womack, 2020. "Valuing the Redevelopment Option Component of Urban Land Values," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(1), pages 294-338, March.
    13. Glumac, Brano & Herrera-Gomez, Marcos & Licheron, Julien, 2019. "A hedonic urban land price index," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 802-812.
    14. Hung-Ying Chen, 2020. "Cashing in on the sky: financialization and urban air rights in the Taipei Metropolitan Area," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 198-208, February.
    15. Benjamin Neville & Bulent Menguc, 2006. "Stakeholder Multiplicity: Toward an Understanding of the Interactions between Stakeholders," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 377-391, July.
    16. Clapp, John M. & Salavei, Katsiaryna, 2010. "Hedonic pricing with redevelopment options: A new approach to estimating depreciation effects," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 362-377, May.
    17. Zillante, Artie & Read, Dustin C. & Seiler, Michael J., 2020. "Assembling land for urban revitalization in the presence of linchpin parcels and information asymmetries: An experimental investigation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi Huang & Geoffrey Hewings, 2021. "More Reliable Land Price Index: Is There a Slope Effect?," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Lopez, Luis A. & Yoshida, Jiro, 2022. "Estimating housing rent depreciation for inflation adjustments," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Sören Gröbel, 2018. "Regional heterogeneity in age-related housing depreciation rates [Regionale Heterogenität altersbedingter Wertminderungen von Wohnimmobilien]," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 38(2), pages 219-254, October.
    4. John M. Clapp & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Thies Lindenthal, 2023. "Are Estimates of Rapid Growth in Urban Land Values an Artifact of the Land Residual Model?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 373-421, February.
    5. Iqbal A. Syed & Jan De Haan, 2017. "Age, Time, Vintage, And Price Indexes: Measuring The Depreciation Pattern Of Houses," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 580-600, January.
    6. Yoshida, Jiro, 2020. "The economic depreciation of real estate: Cross-sectional variations and their return implications," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Raphael W. Bostic & Stanley D. Longhofer & Christian L. Redfearn, 2007. "Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-208, June.
    8. Alan Sage & Mike Langen & Alex van de Minne, 2023. "Where is the opportunity in opportunity zones?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 338-371, March.
    9. Yoshida, Jiro, 2016. "Structure Depreciation and the Production of Real Estate Services," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 44, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2008. "House price depreciation rates and level of maintenance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 88-101, March.
    11. Ka Shing Cheung & Chung Yim Yiu, 2022. "The economics of architectural aesthetics: Identifying price effect of urban ambiences by different house cohorts," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 49(6), pages 1741-1756, July.
    12. Clapp, John M. & Bardos, Katsiaryna Salavei & Wong, S.K., 2012. "Empirical estimation of the option premium for residential redevelopment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 240-256.
    13. Wayne Xinwei Wan & Thies Lindenthal, 2023. "Testing machine learning systems in real estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 754-778, May.
    14. Lyndsey Rolheiser, 2021. "Old, small and unwanted: Post-war housing and neighbourhood socioeconomic status," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(14), pages 2952-2970, November.
    15. Jakob A. Dambon & Stefan S. Fahrländer & Saira Karlen & Manuel Lehner & Jaron Schlesinger & Fabio Sigrist & Anna Zimmermann, 2022. "Examining the vintage effect in hedonic pricing using spatially varying coefficients models: a case study of single-family houses in the Canton of Zurich," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-14, December.
    16. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin, 2022. "Hedonic, residual, and matching methods for residential land valuation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    17. Gang‐Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Tien Foo Sing & Xiaoyu Zhang, 2022. "Risk aversion and urban land development options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 767-788, September.
    18. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March.
    19. Peter Englund, 2003. "Taxing Residential Housing Capital," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 937-952, May.
    20. Wan, Wayne Xinwei & Lindenthal, Thies, 2022. "Towards accountability in machine learning applications: A system-testing approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-001, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:119:y:2022:i:c:s0264837722002150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.