The relationship between vacant properties and neighborhood gentrification

The regeneration of vacant properties due to increased investments in declining neighborhoods does not always have positive outcomes. Vacant urban land can be, on one hand, an opportunity for neighborhood revitalization. On the other hand, regenerated vacant land can lead to neighborhood change in the form of gentrification, with increases in upper-class populations into mostly non-wealthy communities. The relationship between vacant land, its regeneration, and gentrification has been quite limited in the current research, mainly relying on an economic standpoint. Using Minneapolis, Minnesota as a case area, this research questions what types of vacant lands promote gentrification more than others. We analyze if 1) clustered vacant properties in Minneapolis are associated with the neighborhood gentrification process and 2) if certain types of vacant properties attract new investments and catalyze gentrification in Minneapolis. We examine such relationships using spatial autoregressive and logistic regression models. We also identify different vacancy types using proven classification schemes and measure significantly clustered vacancies using Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. Results suggest that clustered residential and commercial vacancies are positively associated with neighborhood gentrification while vacancies typified by institutional land uses are negatively associated with gentrification. Clustered, small-sized, industrial, and recreational vacancies show as insignificant factors contributing to gentrification. This study recommends that moderately-sized privately-owned properties should be targeted for the adoption of policies to preserve neighborhood affordability. In the case of publicly-owned vacancies highly threatened by gentrification, non-developmental pursuits should be primarily sought, such as re-greening and temporary usages.