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Option value and the price of teardown properties

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  • McMillen, Daniel
  • O’Sullivan, Arthur

Abstract

The introduction of uncertainty over the future price of structural capital into a model of teardowns implies a value to delaying the demolition vs. preservation decision, and that the market price of a redeveloped property may increase with its quantity of structural capital. Using data from an active teardown market, we test the model’s prediction that hedonic price function coefficients depend on the expected time between sale and demolition. As predicted, structural variables have significant effects on the sales prices of both teardown and non-teardown properties, and the effects are generally much larger the lower the estimated teardown probability.

Suggested Citation

  • McMillen, Daniel & O’Sullivan, Arthur, 2013. "Option value and the price of teardown properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 71-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:74:y:2013:i:c:p:71-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2012.09.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Wentland & Gary Cornwall & Jeremy G. Moulton, 2023. "For What It's Worth: Measuring Land Value in the Era of Big Data and Machine Learning," BEA Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Ross, Stephen L., 2015. "Change and Persistence in the Economic Status of Neighborhoods and Cities," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1047-1120, Elsevier.
    3. Paredes, Dusan & Skidmore, Mark, 2017. "The net benefit of demolishing dilapidated housing: The case of Detroit," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-27.
    4. repec:bea:wpaper:0209 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    6. Been, Vicki & Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Gedal, Michael & Glaeser, Edward & McCabe, Brian J., 2016. "Preserving history or restricting development? The heterogeneous effects of historic districts on local housing markets in New York City," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 16-30.
    7. Moon, Byunggeor & Ahn, Sungin, 2022. "The effects of a FAR regulation in a model of durable building with redevelopment: The case of New York City," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Gedal, Michael & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2018. "Valuing urban land: Comparing the use of teardown and vacant land sales," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 190-203.
    9. McMillen, Daniel & Zabel, Jeffrey, 2022. "Special issue on land valuation: Introduction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    10. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2014. "Are Private Markets and Filtering a Viable Source of Low-Income Housing? Estimates from a "Repeat Income" Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 687-706, February.
    11. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Daniel McMillen, 2014. "New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution of Land for Capital," ERSA conference papers ersa14p108, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Simon B chler, Alex van de Minne, Olivier Sch ni, 2020. "Redevelopment Option Value for Commercial Real Estate," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper26, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    13. Chia, Liu Ee & Sing, Tien Foo, 2023. "Redevelopment values in multi-family properties: Evidence from en bloc sales in Singapore," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Munneke, Henry J. & Womack, Kiplan S., 2015. "Neighborhood renewal: The decision to renovate or tear down," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 99-115.
    15. Clapp, John M. & Eichholtz, Piet & Lindenthal, Thies, 2013. "Real option value over a housing market cycle," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 862-874.
    16. McMillen, Daniel & Singh, Ruchi, 2022. "Land value estimation using teardowns," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Teardowns; Option value; Hedonic; Duration models; Semiparametic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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