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Explanatory mining for gold: Contrasting evidence from simple and multiple regressions

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  • Baur, Dirk G.

Abstract

Gold traditionally has been used as a store of value and an inflation hedge. More recently, gold is also viewed as a hedge against uncertainty and a safe haven. This paper demonstrates that many properties regularly associated with gold are only valid in a simple regression framework but significantly change in a multiple regression framework. A descriptive and econometric analysis of gold and US economic and financial variables for monthly data from 1979 to 2011 shows that gold primarily serves as a hedge against a weaker US dollar and against higher commodity prices. In contrast, gold is not a hedge against consumer price inflation. The empirical results also indicate that gold only recently evolved as a safe haven asset.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.

Volume (Year): 36 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 265-275

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:36:y:2011:i:3:p:265-275

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467

Related research

Keywords: Gold Store of value Inflation hedge Exchange rate Safe haven Uncertainty Cost of carry;

References

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  1. Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies And Currency Commodities," CAMA Working Papers 2006-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
  3. Larry A. Sjaastad, 2007. "The Price of Gold and the Exchange Rates: Once Again," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 07-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  4. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, 05.
  5. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
  6. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Dipak Ghosh & Eric J. Levin & Peter Macmillan & Robert E. Wright, 2000. "Gold as an Inflation Hedge?," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 200021, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
  8. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming, 2011. "The yen for gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 39-48, March.
  10. Davidson, Sinclair & Faff, Robert & Hillier, David, 2003. "Gold factor exposures in international asset pricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 271-289, July.
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