IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v37y2015i5p726-741.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Food and energy subsidy reforms in Iran: A general equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gharibnavaz, Mohammad Reza
  • Waschik, Robert

Abstract

In 2010, the Iranian Government launched several market-oriented reforms, including the removal of distortions on heavily subsidized food and energy products. We use a microconsistent CGE model with 20 urban and rural households to model the actual characteristics of the food and energy subsidy reforms as implemented by the Iranian Government, calibrated to econometrically estimated income elasticities, and accounting for variations in sources of income and family size across households. Results suggest that food and energy subsidy reforms accompanied by lump-sum payments to households could result in aggregate welfare gains of over 45 per cent, with low income households experiencing welfare gains of well over 100 per cent. Reforms are accompanied by an increase in real government revenue of over 30 per cent. So while the subsidy reform programme is likely responsible for at least some of the inflationary pressures currently being experienced by the Iranian economy, it should not be seen as being responsible for the Iranian government's current fiscal difficulties, nor should it be blamed for the recent contraction of the Iranian economy, both of which are more likely due to the effects of international sanctions and the steep decline in the value of the Iranian Rial.

Suggested Citation

  • Gharibnavaz, Mohammad Reza & Waschik, Robert, 2015. "Food and energy subsidy reforms in Iran: A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 726-741.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:5:p:726-741
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.07.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893815000794
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.07.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
    2. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates In The Gtap Data Base," Technical Papers 28721, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Bhaskar Dutta & Bharat Ramaswami, 2004. "Reforming Food Subsidy Schemes: Estimating the Gains from Self‐targeting in India," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 309-324, May.
    4. Mr. Dominique M. Guillaume & Mr. Roman Zytek & Mr. Mohammad Reza Farzin, 2011. "Iran: The Chronicles of the Subsidy Reform," IMF Working Papers 2011/167, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jesper Jensen & David Tarr, 2014. "Trade, Exchange Rate, and Energy Pricing Reform in Iran: Potentially Large Efficiency Effects and Gains to the Poor," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 13, pages 307-326, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Davood Manzoor & Asghar Shahmoradi & Iman Haqiqi, 2012. "An analysis of energy price reform: a CGE approach," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(1), pages 35-54, March.
    8. Mohammad Reza Gharibnavaz & Robert Waschik & László Kónya, 2014. "Parsimonious Estimation of LES Parameters with Heterogeneous Households for a Static CGE Model," Working Papers 2014.03, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stéphane Gauthier & Taraneh Tabatabai, 2019. "How incentives matter? An illustration from the targeted subsidies reform in Iran," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 52(1), pages 97-125, January.
    2. Li, Aijun & Peng, Dan & Wang, Daoping & Yao, Xin, 2017. "Comparing regional effects of climate policies to promote non-fossil fuels in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1998-2012.
    3. Auktor, Georgeta Vidican & Loewe, Markus, 2021. "Subsidy reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: Strategic options and their consequences for the social contract," IDOS Discussion Papers 12/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    4. Farajzadeh, Zakariya & Zhu, Xueqin & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad, 2017. "Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 75-85.
    5. Haqiqi, Iman & Yasharel, Sepideh, 2018. "Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Help the Poor," MPRA Paper 95907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Khan, Haider, 2023. "Geoeconomics, Structural Change and Energy Use in Iran: A SAM-Based CGE Analysis with Some Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Considerations," MPRA Paper 117155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zarepour, Zahra & Wagner, Natascha, 2022. "Cash instead of subsidy: Assessing the impact of the iranian energy subsidy reform on households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Zahra Zarepour, 2022. "Short- and long-run macroeconomic impacts of the 2010 Iranian energy subsidy reform," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-32, October.
    9. Gelan, Ayele U., 2018. "Kuwait's energy subsidy reduction: Examining economic and CO2 emission effects with or without compensation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 186-200.
    10. Ghosh, Probal P., 2022. "Impact of India's diesel subsidy reforms and pricing policy on growth and inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Aiman Albatayneh & Adel Juaidi & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro, 2023. "The Negative Impact of Electrical Energy Subsidies on the Energy Consumption—Case Study from Jordan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Stephane Gauthier & Taraneh Tabatabai, 2017. "How incentives matter ? An illustration from the Targeted Subsidies reform in Iran," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01542799, HAL.
    13. Dennis, Allen, 2016. "Household welfare implications of fossil fuel subsidy reforms in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 597-606.
    14. Aghababaei, Mohammad Ebrahim, 2019. "General Equilibrium Resource Elasticity in an Open Resource-Abundant Economy," MPRA Paper 97851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Pargal, Sheoli, 2020. "Economics of energy subsidy reforms in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Zhan-Ming Chen, 2017. "Inventory and Distribution of Energy Subsidies of China," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Langarita, Raquel & Duarte, Rosa & Hewings, Geoffrey & Sánchez-Chóliz, Julio, 2019. "Testing European goals for the Spanish electricity system using a disaggregated CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1288-1301.
    2. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    3. Laborde, David & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2008. "Implications of the 2008 Doha Draft Agricultural and NAMA Market Access Modalities for Developing Countries," Conference papers 331719, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Haqiqi, Iman & Yasharel, Sepideh, 2018. "Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Help the Poor," MPRA Paper 95907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Balie, Jean & Strutt, Anna & Nelgen, Signe & Narayanan, 2018. "Infrastructure investments for improved market access in subSaharan Africa: A CGE analysis," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), June.
    6. Nielsen, Chantal Pohl & Yu, Wusheng, 2002. "Integration of the International Rice Market: Implications for Trade Liberalization," Conference papers 330992, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    8. Horridge, Mark & Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza, 2003. "Linking GTAP to National Models: Some Highlights and a Practical Approach," Conference papers 331115, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Peter Walkenhorst & Tadashi Yasui, 2004. "Quantitative Assessment of the Benefits of Trade Facilitation," International Trade 0401008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Soo Yuen Chong & Jung Hur, 2007. "Overlapping Free Trade Agreements of Singapore-USA-Japan : A Computational Analysis," Trade Working Papers 21931, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Gehlhar, Mark & Wainio, John, 2004. "Feasibility of Reducing Agricultural Protection: Implications for Farm Households," Conference papers 331293, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. De Miguel, Carlos J. & Durán Lima, José Elías & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    13. Wusheng Yu & Hans G. Jensen, 2010. "China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 343-368, June.
    14. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Welfare and Poverty Effects of Global Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52785, World Bank.
    15. Hans G. Jensen & Kym Anderson, 2017. "Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Responses: A Global Economywide Analysis," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 158-175.
    16. Scott McDonald & Terrie Walmsley, 2008. "Bilateral Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions: The Impact of the EU Republic of South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Botswana," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 993-1029, August.
    17. Narayanan, Badri G. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Horridge, J. Mark, 2010. "Disaggregated data and trade policy analysis: The value of linking partial and general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 755-766, May.
    18. Cristina Cattaneo, 2008. "The Determinants of Actual Migration and the Role of Wages and Unemployment in Albania: an Empirical Analysis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 3-32, June.
    19. Pierre Sauvé & Gloria Pasadilla & Mia Mikic (ed.), 2011. "Service Sector Reforms: Asia-Pacific Perspectives," ARTNeT Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number brr8.
    20. Evans, David & Gasiorek, Michael & McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman, 2006. "Trade Liberalisation with Trade Induced Technical Change in Morocco and Egypt: Findings and Wider Research Implications," Conference papers 331529, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subsidy reform; CGE model; Household disaggregation; Government revenue;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:5:p:726-741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.