IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v30y2008i3p541-558.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Chilean pension reform: A model to follow?

Author

Listed:
  • Cerda, Rodrigo A.

Abstract

One of the major economic reforms in the Chilean economy was the 1981 pension reform. In that year, Chile transformed its Pay-as-you-go social (PAYG) security system to an individual account social security system (IA). This paper discusses the impacts of the social security reform. To do so, we construct a countra-factual scenario of the Chilean economy under the PAYG system using simulations methods and we compare it with the effective data occurred under the IA system. We discuss the fiscal impacts, plus pension coverage on the elderly and the PAYG system's macroeconomics impacts by comparing them with the actual evolution of the Chilean economy under the IA system. Our simulations show significant fiscal deficits in the PAYG plus relatively lower pension coverage and modest benefits compare to the IA system. Finally, we show that the pension reform might have had significant macroeconomic impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerda, Rodrigo A., 2008. "The Chilean pension reform: A model to follow?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 541-558.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:541-558
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(07)00012-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naude, Willem & Coetzee, Rian, 2004. "Globalisation and inequality in South Africa: modelling the labour market transmission," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 911-925, December.
    2. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas H. Joines, 1999. "Social Security in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Land," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 638-665, July.
    3. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    4. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1985. "Social Security and Individual Welfare: Precautionary Saving, LiquidityConstraints, and the Payroll Tax," NBER Working Papers 1736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1996. "Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 1-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Thomas F. Cooley & Jorge Soares, 1999. "A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(1), pages 135-160, February.
    7. Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1995. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 360-399, April.
    8. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security in the U.S. -- Comparing the Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 532-574, July.
    9. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé, 2002. "Crecimiento, Empleo e Impuestos al Trabajo: Chile 1998-2001," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(117), pages 157-174.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian & Edwards, Alejandra Cox, 2002. "Social Security Privatization and Labor Markets: The Case of Chile," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(3), pages 465-489, April.
    11. Solange Berstein & Guillermo Larraín & Francisco Pino, 2005. "Cobertura, densidad y pensiones en Chile: Proyecciones a 20 años plazo," Working Papers 12, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Nov 2005.
    12. Hubbard, R. Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1994. "The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 59-125, June.
    13. Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura, 1999. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 498-531, July.
    14. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    15. de Jager, Nicole E. M. & Graafland, Johan J. & Gelauff, George M. M., 1996. "A negative income tax in a mini-welfare state: A simulation exercise with mimic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 223-231, April.
    16. Sebastian Edwards & Alejandra Cox Edwards, 2002. "Social Security Privatization Reform and Labor Markets: The Case of Chile," NBER Working Papers 8924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Smetters, Kent A & Walliser, Jan, 1998. "Social Security: Privatization and Progressivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 137-141, May.
    18. Thomas Cooley & Jorge Soares, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 731-755, July.
    19. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1979. "Social Security and Equilibrium Capital Intensity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(2), pages 233-253.
    20. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
    21. Hubbard, R Glenn & Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. "Social Security and Individual Welfare: Precautionary Saving, Borrowing Constraints, and the Payroll Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 630-646, September.
    22. Dominique Hachette, 1998. "Ahorro Privado en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 3-48.
    23. Juan Eduardo Coeymans, 1980. "Empleo y Producción con un Financiamiento Alternativo del Sistema Previsional: Un Enfoque de Equilibrio General," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 17(52), pages 273-302.
    24. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent A. Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1998. "Opting Out of Social Security and Adverse Selection," NBER Working Papers 6430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Shiyu & Lin, Shuanglin, 2016. "Population aging and China's social security reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 65-95.
    2. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Changes in the taxation of private pensions: Macroeconomic and welfare effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-712.
    3. Nassios, Jason & Giesecke, James A. & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2019. "Mandated superannuation contributions and the structure of the financial sector in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 859-881.
    4. Cerda, Rodrigo A., 2008. "Social Security and Wealth Accumulation in Developing Economies: Evidence from the 1981 Chilean Reform," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2029-2044, October.
    5. Cuesta, Jose & Olivera, Mauricio, 2014. "The impact of social security reform on the labor market: The case of Colombia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1118-1134.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Smetters, Kent & Walliser, Jan, 2007. "Mitigating America's demographic dilemma by pre-funding social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 247-266, March.
    3. Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2007. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 225-252, June.
    4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2002. "Distributional Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 327-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002. "Generational policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932, Elsevier.
    8. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2000. "A Dynamic Model Of Labor Supply, Consumption/Saving, And Annuity Decisions Under Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 128, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Hugo Benítez-Silva, 2003. "The Annuity Puzzle Revisited," Working Papers wp055, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    11. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 33-47, March.
    12. Yang, Fang, 2013. "Social security reform with impure intergenerational altruism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 52-67.
    13. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Marcelo Rodrigues dos Santos, 2013. "The Effect of Social Security, Health, Demography and Technology on Retirement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 350-370, April.
    16. Hans Fehr, 2009. "Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 359-416, December.
    17. Hans Fehr & Christian Habermann & Fabian Kindermann, 2008. "Social Security with Rational and Hyperbolic Consumers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 884-903, October.
    18. Roman Arjona, "undated". "Gradually Capitalizing the Spanish Retirement Pension System," Studies on the Spanish Economy 81, FEDEA.
    19. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2000. "A Joint Model of Labor Supply and Consumption Decisions Under Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0196, Econometric Society.
    20. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2013. "Generational Policy and Aging in Closed and Open Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1719-1800, Elsevier.
    21. Rodrigo Cerda, 2006. "Pensiones en Chile: ¿Qué Hubiese Ocurrido sin la Reforma de 1981?," Documentos de Trabajo 310, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:541-558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.