Seed distributions for the NCAA men's basketball tournament
AbstractBracketology, the art of successfully picking all the winners in the National Collegiate Athletic Association's (NCAA) annual men's Division I college basketball championship tournament, has become a favorite national activity. In spite of the challenges and uncertainty faced in this endeavor, patterns exist in how the seeds appear in each round, particularly the later rounds. This paper statistically analyzes tournaments from 1985 to 2010, finding that the distribution of seeds that win in the rounds beyond the Sweet Sixteen can be modeled as a truncated geometric random variable. This model allows one to consider any set of seeds in each tournament round and compute the probability that these seeds would win in that round; this methodology can evaluate the likelihood of each seed combination in each tournament round, based on past tournament history. Finally, each tournament from 1985 through 2010 is analyzed using this model to assess its likelihood and measure the probability of its occurrence.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.
Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shishebor, Z. & Towhidi, M., 2004. "On the generalization of negative binomial distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 127-133, January.
- Baumann Robert & Matheson Victor A. & Howe Cara A., 2010.
"Anomalies in Tournament Design: The Madness of March Madness,"
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports,
De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-11, April.
- Robert Baumann & Victor Matheson & Cara Howe, 2009. "Anomalies in Tournament Design: The Madness of March Madness," Working Papers 0912, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
- Robert Baumann & Victor Matheson & Cara Howe, 2009. "Anomalies in Tournament Design: The Madness of March Madness," Working Papers 0910, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
- Fearnhead, Paul & Taylor, Benjamin M., 2010. "Calculating Strength of Schedule, and Choosing Teams for March Madness," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 64(2), pages 108-115.
- Koenker, Roger & Bassett Jr., Gilbert W., 2010. "March Madness, Quantile Regression Bracketology, and the Hayek Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 26-35.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.